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Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

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Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#141

Post by adventured »

eloisant wrote: post #40
JKCalhoun wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I'm googling this right Apple had perhaps $48B in cash in 2022. I don't know how others compare.

Goog = $110B MS = $100B Amazon = $64B Meta = $37B So no, Apple is not the big tech with the most cash. They do have a much higher market cap than the others but it's simply based on their brand image and speculation.

Apple's higher market cap is not based significantly on their image and speculation.

It's based on their consistently enormous income generation.

Apple has $114 billion in operating income over the past four quarters. Alphabet is close to $75b by comparison; Microsoft is $83b; Meta is $29b. Amazon is a joke at $12b (which is increasingly being reflected in their very mediocre stock market performance; Amazon stock has nearly contracted on an inflation adjusted basis over five years).

For large corporations like Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, etc., profit generation is overwhelmingly what matters. Apple has led the way on that for a long time now and it's reflected in their market cap.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#143

Post by adventured »

daniel_iversen wrote: post #68
eloisant wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goog = $110B MS = $100B Amazon = $64B Meta = $37B So no, Apple is not the big tech with the most cash. They do have a much higher market cap than the others but it's simply based on their brand image and speculation.

And revenue! i.e. 2022: Apple: ~$395bn Microsoft: ~$200bn Amazon: ~$500bn Meta: $116bn

Revenue is a very poor reference for the context.

Amazon extracts a poor margin out of their $514 billion in sales. Over the past four quarters their operating income margin is a pathetic ~2.4%.

Apple's operating income margin is ~29.4% by comparison. They have a vastly superior business.

Eventually Amazon investors will tire of the terrible stock market returns that present Amazon is generating and the garbage that is retail and they'll demand the company split itself up. That will involve spinning off AWS so investors can realize max value for that (before it's too late and growth slows to a crawl in that space).

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#144

Post by MichaelZuo »

msh wrote: post #134
MichaelZuo wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple customers’ appetite for compute is practically bottomless. I don't think so, the typical iPhone user has not scaled up their compute needs much past the 2015 A9. And if you exclude the computational photography stuff, I could imagine some users don't take advantage of it at all.

I think that the games on my iphone would disagree.

Genshin Impact runs on the A9, I don't think there exist any more computationally demanding games on mobile.

What games are you referring to?

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#145

Post by kitsunesoba »

mvid wrote: post #115
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the hallmarks of being a hacker is a Democratic spirit. The ethos that we’re forever vigilant and deeply skeptical of structural power. Apple has too much power, no for profit company or person can responsibly wield with that much power.

It’s a nice thought, but the reality is statements like this are just “I want google to have the power” and that’s not better

Or in the case of desktop/laptop computers, "I want Microsoft to have the power". If Apple suddenly vanished, realistically speaking most of its desktop marketshare would fall directly into Microsoft's lap as those users switched to Windows. The only exception would be devs using Linux instead, which at best represents a single digit percentage of computer users.

So in this scenario you end up with Windows being catapulted from its current ~75% global marketshare to a 90%+ virtually-unopposed monopoly, and even less reason for Microsoft to make Windows a good product.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#146

Post by hammock »

adventured wrote: post #143
daniel_iversen wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And revenue! i.e. 2022: Apple: ~$395bn Microsoft: ~$200bn Amazon: ~$500bn Meta: $116bn

Revenue is a very poor reference for the context. Amazon extracts a poor margin out of their $514 billion in sales. Over the past four quarters their operating income margin is a pathetic ~2.4%. Apple's operating income margin is ~29.4% by comparison. They have a vastly superior business. Eventually Amazon investors will tire of the terrible stock market returns that present Amazon is generating and the garbage that…

I look at FCF. Amazon -11B last year vs Apple +111B. Gives you an approximate run rate for their cash on hand

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#147

Post by bhouston »

Veliladon wrote: post #129
samwillis wrote: post #2

Some people may criticise the "monopoly" Apply have of TSMC latest nodes, but I think it's ultimately good. TSMC need to know they have a customer for new nodes in order to invest in them, thats what Apple are in the unique position to give with their war chest of cash. This investment by Apple eventually leads its way to other customers and smaller businesses. The whole industry thrives on the wake Apple leaves behi…

You would be correct if investment were the bottleneck. It's not. The bottleneck on advanced processes is how fast ASML can build its EUV fabrication machines and they're extremely complicated pieces of kit with lots of specialized parts that are also extremely complicated pieces of kit. Even with all our modern production ability we're limited in how quickly we can assemble these machines that can actually do the li…

Why can't ASML scale? They are siting on $20B of orders. That is insane. What is ASML's delivery throughput of these machines?

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#148

Post by pier25 »

dagmx wrote: post #101
heliophobicdude wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some broken-down reasons why gaming on Mac didn't take off. I'm sure it's a few different reasons all together

A lot of people will likely blame APIs etc, but that’s just an easy scapegoat for people outside the game dev industry. The reality is likely just market share, hardware and the makeup of that market share. Macs used to actually be a big gaming platform once upon a time. Myst was a Mac exclusive (built with HyperCard) and Bungie used to make games for macs first before getting bought by Microsoft. But windows got the…

You can't ignore API reasons though.

Before Metal, macOS used to ship with old OpenGL versions. I remember around the Tiger days (10.4) OpenGL was 4-5 years old compared to the version shipped in Windows. And with DirectX, Windows had a better API about two decades before Metal for macOS was released.

I do agree with your other points. Macs are expensive so they are always going to be a niche market. And in most countries, Apple products are luxury products.

Another point is really that Windows GPUs have always been more powerful. If you wanted to play the latest AAA games at good quality and fps you had to be on Windows.

And there's also an ouroboros vicious circle. Devs don't put effort into the Mac because there aren't many gamers on it, and there aren't many gamers on it because dev don't put too much effort. And it doesn't help the decisions that Apple has taken to further ostracize themselves form the desktop gaming market.

> iOS is THE dominant gaming platform

In the US. Worldwide iOS has like 28% market share I believe.

Nevertheless, Apple could really become a gaming powerhouse outside of mobile. If they released an AppleTV with a gamepad and an M3 chip, they bought or partnered with a couple of good console/desktop game studios (not mobile game studios).

The AppleTV already has games but there's not a lot of good content and Apple doesn't even provide an official gamepad. It's clear Apple doesn't care much about gaming outside of iOS.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#149

Post by __alexs »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #136
__alexs wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple had long given up on games before Vulkan was even on the drawing board.

The good thing about SW is you can always choose to change things in the future. Nothing is stopping Apple to implement support Vulkan now if they wanted to. It's not like they can't afford the engineering effort. Windows supports both DirectX and Vulkan.

Not many games support Vulkan though.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#150

Post by notaustinpowers »

bhouston wrote: post #147
Veliladon wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would be correct if investment were the bottleneck. It's not. The bottleneck on advanced processes is how fast ASML can build its EUV fabrication machines and they're extremely complicated pieces of kit with lots of specialized parts that are also extremely complicated pieces of kit. Even with all our modern production ability we're limited in how quickly we can assemble these machines that can actually do the li…

Why can't ASML scale? They are siting on $20B of orders. That is insane. What is ASML's delivery throughput of these machines?

I'm not familiar on the throughput, but their EUV lithography machines are some of the most complex machinery humanity has developed to date. We're lucky this even works, let alone dream of scaling it.
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