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What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

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Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#21

Post by skybrian »

startupsfail wrote: post #15
MrScruff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It matters because the memo as being portrayed as 'the opinion of Google' by websites looking for clicks. The opinion is as relevant or not as any opinion expressed on Hacker News, the fact that the person who expressed it works for Google is irrelevant.

Well, there a honest opinion of an unbiased engineer, ideally a researcher who was trained to filter his own biases, from the inside of the organization , speaking honesty is likely the best approximation that you can get for “an opinion of Google”. It is important that the engineer is an insider, as from outside of Google access to its internal knowledge is limited.

Googlers are no more unbiased than someone who gets a job somewhere else. Getting a job at Google might affect your opinions somewhat when you see what people are doing, but there is no special training in being unbiased.

Also, the document we're discussing was not written as a serious research paper. It's a more like one of Steve Yegge's rants, written to be provocative.

When something Yegge wrote while at Google leaked, people knew who he was, so it was interpreted as "here's what Yegge thinks." It's the same in this case, but it's someone else who isn't famous.

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#22

Post by dehrmann »

UncleMeat wrote: post #3

All the presentation of this has been weird. "Leaked Google memo" is true in a sense, but the doc was written by one person who isn't the primary leading force within relevant orgs at Google. The headline is more accurately described as "what does the opinion of one Googler reveal..."

At the same time, I'm not sure I'd give any more weight to something written by "leading forces within relevant orgs" when these are the same people who missed ChatGPT and are playing catch-up.

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#23

Post by CharlesW »

janalsncm wrote: post #14

I don’t know. If you define “AI” as having a great chatbot then probably no company has a moat anymore. But there are a lot more types of tasks which have nothing to do with that. Robotics, for one. Self-driving cars is another example. “AI” in the abstract is a meaninglessly vague concept but for all intents and purposes Google still has advantages over others in important areas. Their perpetual disadvantage of cour…

> But there are a lot more types of tasks which have nothing to do with that.

I've found the Gartner AI Hype Cycle to be a useful tool for making this point with people who are under the impression that "AI" is mostly generative AI, and LLMs specifically: https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/what-s-new-in-artificial...

In particular, the chart conveys this really quickly.

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#24

Post by gumby »

Was it leaked or “leaked”?

Google has a good, two part strategy available.

First is to neutralize the threat: support the open source efforts covertly and/or overtly, as those efforts undercut the revenue of OpenAI and other potential competitors for the base technology. This is what they did with Android: at a minimum all they had to do was ensure that Apple did not become a monopoly, which they accomplished (the secondary effect was to cut the underbrush of any other competitors). A name for this is to “commoditize your competition”.

The second half is to use their internal experience with LLMs and their other ecosystem to use supercharge their strengths. Side inventions can either be expanded in the hope of a (desperately needed, unrelated to LLMs) new revenue stream or given away to starve potential new entrants.

The big guys have good experience in weaponizing open source. But google has become flabby and seemingly lost any culture of execution so I don’t know if they can pull it off. But the path is there.

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#25

Post by sitkack »

gumby wrote: post #24

Was it leaked or “leaked”? Google has a good, two part strategy available. First is to neutralize the threat: support the open source efforts covertly and/or overtly, as those efforts undercut the revenue of OpenAI and other potential competitors for the base technology. This is what they did with Android: at a minimum all they had to do was ensure that Apple did not become a monopoly, which they accomplished (the se…

The doc is too short and not puffy to be a normal google doc. There is a high likelihood this was placed to proactively shake off any regulation or scruitiny while they get the deck chairs in order.

They might not appear to have a moat, but they definitely have an advantage that they can keep for 5+ years. They also have a "copy of the internet" that no one else does.

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#26

Post by mattlondon »

skybrian wrote: post #21
startupsfail wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, there a honest opinion of an unbiased engineer, ideally a researcher who was trained to filter his own biases, from the inside of the organization , speaking honesty is likely the best approximation that you can get for “an opinion of Google”. It is important that the engineer is an insider, as from outside of Google access to its internal knowledge is limited.

Googlers are no more unbiased than someone who gets a job somewhere else. Getting a job at Google might affect your opinions somewhat when you see what people are doing, but there is no special training in being unbiased. Also, the document we're discussing was not written as a serious research paper. It's a more like one of Steve Yegge's rants, written to be provocative. When something Yegge wrote while at Google le…

> but there is no special training in being unbiased

Citation needed! ;-)

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#27

Post by sitkack »

mdp2021 wrote: post #2

> AI burst into the public consciousness with the launch in late 2022 Because 70 years of named work based on centuries of interest and efforts can remain unseen if one really tries. /R > But easier access to AI also means bad actors will be able to fine-tune systems for nefarious purposes, such as generating disinformation. It means Western attempts to prevent hostile regimes from gaining access to powerful AI techn…

You are just starting a flame war.

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#28

Post by [deleted] »

gumby wrote: post #24

Was it leaked or “leaked”? Google has a good, two part strategy available. First is to neutralize the threat: support the open source efforts covertly and/or overtly, as those efforts undercut the revenue of OpenAI and other potential competitors for the base technology. This is what they did with Android: at a minimum all they had to do was ensure that Apple did not become a monopoly, which they accomplished (the se…

[deleted]

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#29

Post by akiselev »

sitkack wrote: post #25
gumby wrote: post #24

Was it leaked or “leaked”? Google has a good, two part strategy available. First is to neutralize the threat: support the open source efforts covertly and/or overtly, as those efforts undercut the revenue of OpenAI and other potential competitors for the base technology. This is what they did with Android: at a minimum all they had to do was ensure that Apple did not become a monopoly, which they accomplished (the se…

The doc is too short and not puffy to be a normal google doc. There is a high likelihood this was placed to proactively shake off any regulation or scruitiny while they get the deck chairs in order. They might not appear to have a moat, but they definitely have an advantage that they can keep for 5+ years. They also have a "copy of the internet" that no one else does.

What are the chances that their copy is more useful than CommonCrawl? It’s been the target of SEO for decades - are they even capable of separating the good content from the crap anymore?

Google may already be terminal

Re: What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

#30

Post by skybrian »

mattlondon wrote: post #26
skybrian wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Googlers are no more unbiased than someone who gets a job somewhere else. Getting a job at Google might affect your opinions somewhat when you see what people are doing, but there is no special training in being unbiased. Also, the document we're discussing was not written as a serious research paper. It's a more like one of Steve Yegge's rants, written to be provocative. When something Yegge wrote while at Google le…

> but there is no special training in being unbiased Citation needed! ;-)

Well, I didn't get any training like that when I worked there, but it was a long time ago and I don't know what they're teaching Nooglers these days.

I suppose you might be referring to diversity training, but it's not the same thing.

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