Because that’s a thing that our leaders now have to promise in the democracies that we’re living in?
Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
41–50 of 103 posts
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#42Some GeoPolitlcal context: * If you don't know about Erdogan, theres too much for a HN thread. * The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to deny any country at war (not with Turkey) to deny warship passage, except to return home. * Turkey is an incredibly important part of NATO because of their ability to choke Black Sea access. * This has kept Russia's warm warm navy in check, particularly for the Ukraine conflic…
"* The US leases airbases in Turkey, with nuclear penetration bombers and nuclear warheads stored on site."
My understanding is that the bombs are on site, but the bombers are not.
This from 2019 by The Federation of American Scientists supports that view.[1] "The remaining 50 bombs are for use by US jets, even though Turkey never allowed the US Air Force to permanently base fighter-squadrons at Incirlik. Jets would have to fly in during a crisis to pick up the weapons or they would have to be shipped to other locations before use. As a result, the nuclear posture at Incirlik has been more a storage site than a fighter-bomber base during the past two decades."
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#43I genuinely don't understand why Erdogan is called a dictator in the west. He's not an ideal democratic leader, sure, but seems to be far from a dictator.
There are existing measures of democracy. Do you dispute them or Turkey's ratings?
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
He might very well face prison. Corruption allegations are in the scale of billions and these allegations are all done by his ex partners. The evidence is patchy but some allegations are very credible. We even had video records and phone records collected by the police but he got away because those who collected these records were connected to a religious cult which is very unpopular among the population and suspecte…
In case of high profile people it is often not the lack of evidence, it is the lack of will to prosecute them. Apart from some fines, has Trump faced any consequence, ever? There is enough evidence against him to fill a warehouse. I hope Erdogan gets voted out and faces consequences for the crap he pulled, I am skeptical though
The American legal system is slow.
Most litigation against Trump only really started in 2017 or 2018. A couple were thrown out due to procedural issues (blame that slimeball Avennati), but others have gone through.
Also, most litigation mentioned against Trump is in the Civil Court system, where has has faced penalties.
Criminal litigation on the other hand takes A LOT of time, especially if you hire a firm with a strong track record in defending their clients.
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
He might very well face prison. Corruption allegations are in the scale of billions and these allegations are all done by his ex partners. The evidence is patchy but some allegations are very credible. We even had video records and phone records collected by the police but he got away because those who collected these records were connected to a religious cult which is very unpopular among the population and suspecte…
Hot/Unpopular Take: For the sake of developing Turkey, it might be best for them to adopt the South Korean model of the incoming President pardoning the outgoing president of wrongdoing and ongoing crimes. That is the only way to ensure peaceful transitions in countries where democratic norms are still being developed.
Interesting, I haven't heard of this. However, wouldn't that mean that those in power would have nothing to fear to do the worst tings possible?
The Turkish "tradition" is to switch power every 20 years and destroy those who previously held power. Before Erdogan, the secularists were in power and they are just as corrupt and oppressive. Their dominance in business and public life was systematically eroded and unfairly destroyed by Erdogan. The new secular opposition is much more liberal and actually harbours the ideals of the Erdogan's first term when he was considered liberal.
Actually the significant portion of the current opposition which is expected to win tomorrow consist of the "light" version of the soft nationalist, peaceful islamist, economic liberals, political kurds and soft seculars.
Very ironically, the remains of the politics who were destroyed by Erdogan are on the Erdogan's side on this election: The ultra nationalist, the hardcore islamists, the social democrats(which were in power when erdogan came), the Kemalists and the Kurds with history of violence(one part islamist kurds with connections to designated terrorist organisation and one part the communist guerrilla Kurds).
It's actually immensely entertaining. Erdogan has turned into the thing he came to destroy. Even more ironically, Erdogan came into power during an economical crisis and after a huge earthquake and he is about to lose power again during an economical crisis and huge earthquake.
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#46I'm highly invested in Erdogan losing this election since I live in Sweden and this basically decides if we get to join the NATO and its nuclear umbrella or not. (Erdogan's opposition has made it clear that they want us in - awesome.) That said: I'm not sure there's much point in debating what Erdogan might do if he loses.
This is one of the points that is a bit complex: AFAIK there is large bi-partisan opposition against Sweden's Nato entry in the Turkish public opinion (for a variety of right or wrong reasons), so the issue is not just with the AKP base.
I think there was some news that Ünal Çeviköz, Kilicdaroglu's (opposition leader) foreign policy advisor, has sent signals that were optimistic. Additionally, it may be easier for US and EU to put pressure on the new government for approval.
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#47Erdogan has probably one of the hardest presidential jobs as he has to balance relations between the west and the east while being a target for holding on to Islamic traditions. Yet at the same time he continues to be able keep NATO following his demands and being the most effective mediator between Russia and Europe. With that said he will likely have the majority vote no matter what the western media tells you, and…
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Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#48Transfer of power only matters in a free and fair election
On the contrary, these things are on a spectrum. In many places elections are not fair, but they are also not completely controlled either -- e.g. someone can bias the election results in their favor by 10 percentage points but still lose if something happened recently that caused their support to drop by 30 percentage points. That is the reality in many places (and that type of unfair biasing happens in bastions of…
To add on to krastonov's explaination, to help ensure peaceful transitions of power, lots of younger democracies like South Korea will give outgoing presidents a blanket pardon of any crimes.
That way, you don't have an incentive to pull a Netenyahu and Obran and constantly try to remain in power to maintain criminal immunity.
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#49I'm highly invested in Erdogan losing this election since I live in Sweden and this basically decides if we get to join the NATO and its nuclear umbrella or not. (Erdogan's opposition has made it clear that they want us in - awesome.) That said: I'm not sure there's much point in debating what Erdogan might do if he loses.
This is one of the points that is a bit complex: AFAIK there is large bi-partisan opposition against Sweden's Nato entry in the Turkish public opinion (for a variety of right or wrong reasons), so the issue is not just with the AKP base. I think there was some news that Ünal Çeviköz, Kilicdaroglu's (opposition leader) foreign policy advisor, has sent signals that were optimistic. Additionally, it may be easier for US…
Sigh. I guess we'll have to build nukes (again, sort of). And a delivery mechanism (again, sort of).
Re: Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot
#50Nevertheless, it doesn't mean he wouldn't try to keep power. He said "we will accept defeat as we did in the Istanbul elections" but in those elections he managed to cancel the election by claiming that the ballot for the mayor was stolen when the ballot for the council was not. How convenient, since his party won the council. Both of the ballots are voted together and put in the same envelope but somehow only one of…
Isn't that a promise NOT to accept the result? The mayor is currently convicted to prison time for a triviality - not sure if he's actually in prison or still fighting the appeal.