To call the problems around the creation of AGI "bike shedding" is one of the most egregious understatements I've ever heard.
AGI will be one of the most civilization-changing inventions ever, for better or for worse. A lot of people, myself included, believe it's going to be end very badly unless (and possibly even if) we tread very carefully.
Analogies that come to my mind are:
* giving toddlers the controls of monster trucks (assuming AGI doesn't develop its own goals)
* releasing a new invasive species onto an isolated tropical island
* homo sapiens evolving from neanderthals, sped up 1000x.
* a digital Cambrian explosion
I really don't think we're ready for this. I don't think humanity, as a species, was ready for a lot of the things we produced through capitalism's random walk, like social media, hyper-palatable processed foods, and fossil fuels. We keep creating things that have good and bad parts (and I'm not even sure about the good of social media).
Those bad parts, like reduced attention spans, obesity, and climate change, are very difficult to mitigate or change after the fact. One of them would be civilization-ending if we didn't stop it, and even though it is, it's so hard to coordinate action. And they are not even driven by a new form of intelligence, it's just humans following our evolved goals of novelty-seeking, nutrition-seeking, and minimum effort. Heck, the invention of AI is us trying to get maximum result with minimum effort.
What happens when this invention outsmarts us? When RLHF starts to break down because the models have enough internal thought that they can maintain a separate internal model-of-the-world and model-of-what-humans-want-to-hear? None of these companies have an actual plan (maybe Anthropic is closest to caring). It's just "we'll deal with it when it comes", but there's so much economic pressure to get your stuff out to the world first and make the money. Just like all the other inventions we made that have downsides, except this one, based on what we understand about intelligence and alignment, will almost certainly have a downside that hits us so fast and hard that we don't have time to do anything meaningful about it.
It's so obvious that we're easily manipulated by dumb social media algorithms. Yet we could never be manipulated by machine superintelligence, right?
AGI research is the digital equivalent of gain-of-function research, in terms of the danger. If done at all, it should be done by one, or a very small set, of extremely carefully controlled labs, under government oversight. Even that might not be enough.