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The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

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Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#81

Post by tastyfreeze »

aww_dang wrote: post #76
tastyfreeze wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That number is suspect. China imported 1343 tons in 2022. The source for that import number doesn't say it was added to the government coffers though. The quantity reportedly added to reserves was only 25 tons. China also has extensive gold mining operations in Africa and South America. I doubt the quantity of mined gold is counted in numbers based on market purchases. https://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/Reopening-Of-Ch…

Personally I suspect all of these official figures. The unofficial speculation isn't much better either. The theme is something like, "The PBoC secretly buys gold to avoid driving prices higher", "Fort Knox is empty! They've been dumping to suppress the gold price" and one of my personal favorites, "The London bullion market is is rigged. Unbacked paper gold is used to suppress prices. When you ask for delivery, you…

I am more in the orchestrated collapse to centralize power camp. The Federal Reserve was created with the intent to centralize power in the hands of the bankers despite stated goals. We are 110 years running under that regime. After a 110 years working towards a goal the ability to orchestrate on a global scale could be quite extensive.

I am with you on being dubious of official numbers though. We really have no idea who is telling the truth and who is fudging numbers. I believe that people with a goal to build their power will lie, cheat, murder, and steal to accomplish that goal. If some countries collapse or a genocide is committed in the process they do not give a shit as long as their power is retained.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#82

Post by stareatgoats »

sdfghswe wrote: post #69
roenxi wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Asians have potentially just given huge amounts of real stuff to the US in exchange for ... arguably the exposure? They could have just taken the day off instead and been economically in the same position. "No better alternative" is a bit of a trick in assuming that the natural order of the world is Asians slaving away making life better for someone foreign. It didn't have to be that way. I'm not saying that they…

> The Russians saw it coming, they were doing exercises and whatnot years in advance of the asset seizures. You're trying to pretend that causality goes the wrong way around. The invasion of Ukraine caused the asset seizures.

Well actually, the collective reaction of the west, including the virtual exclusion of Russia from all western economic activity could not have come as a surprise to Putin. This is in fact the only sense I can make of the overt aggression towards Ukraine: Putin and his clique already held the short end of the stick after Maidan, Georgia, Syria etc: i.e. the west were not going to make life easy for him anyway, so they devise a clean cut, a return to the cold war that they all were so familiar with - and with an expectation that the west would overstretch on armaments and financial crisis. This theory is supported by the obvious strategic investment in an alternative international currency that has been building for a long time - efforts that have been more fruitful after the invasion if anything - also possibly already predicted.

But I'm not sure. It might be crediting them with more brains than they have.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#83

Post by petrocrat »

neodymiumphish wrote: post #45
gizmo686 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But doing so when you are at the top of said system; for no reason other than politcal gamesmanship?

I'm curious who is engaging in the gamesmanship in this scenario. This has been an issue long in the making with our deficit ballooning, even after significant increases in federal revenue. The bill signed by Republicans is hardly extreme, and when we considering the amount of expenses being paid to interest alone, it's clear the federal government needs to do something at this point. Legislators across both aisles h…

The term ballooning is so qualitative and subjective that it is essentially a Barnum statement. How would you determine if the number for the debt is too high? And why?

And how would you determine if it is too low?

For example would the calculation consider the current population? the current factory capacity? Agricultural capacity? the year? Interest Rates? Tax Revenue? The populations desired rate of saving? The current desires and goals of the nation and its citizens? If there is no exact formula, then would a representative body that debates and agrees on a best estimate number be a reasonable way to decide that? If so isn't that what congress does already?

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#84

Post by thomastjeffery »

shagymoe wrote: post #79
thomastjeffery wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Republican party depends on unification while the Democratic party depends on diversity. There is no coherent Left in the US: instead we have one tent for every person who isn't conservative.

That's a weird flavor of kook-aid you're drinking there.

You mean the tap water? I didn't create our advocate for this situation: I'm just living in it.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#85

Post by georgeecollins »

somenameforme wrote: post #57
georgeecollins wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right! This article very misleadingly confuses leaving the Bretton wood agreement and going off the gold standard as defaults. I think that is the same only in the mind of this author, who seems to be trying to normalize something that would be very dumb to do.

They literally were defaults. The reason for Bretton Woods, and the reason the USD became the overwhelming world reserve currency, is that it was directly convertible to gold. Buying USD was as good as buying gold, which meant the currency was not dependent on any given country. But then due to poor economic policy we found ourselves in a situation where we had far more issued debt (currency) than we had gold. We wer…

You say we left Bretton Wood due to "poor economic policy". If that were true the economy of the US has performed poorly since 1972. That's crazy. Worse, it implies that we should go back to the gold standard. That's also tin foil hat proposition.

A default is by definition when you break a contract. On July 1944, the US signed the Bretton Woods Agreement. Agreements between countries change, they aren't contracts. That is why I don't think it is literally a default. Also, history has shown it was a sensible and beneficial thing to do.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#86

Post by sdfghswe »

stareatgoats wrote: post #82
sdfghswe wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Russians saw it coming, they were doing exercises and whatnot years in advance of the asset seizures. You're trying to pretend that causality goes the wrong way around. The invasion of Ukraine caused the asset seizures.

Well actually, the collective reaction of the west, including the virtual exclusion of Russia from all western economic activity could not have come as a surprise to Putin. This is in fact the only sense I can make of the overt aggression towards Ukraine: Putin and his clique already held the short end of the stick after Maidan, Georgia, Syria etc: i.e. the west were not going to make life easy for him anyway, so the…

I don't disagree with you.

But consider this. The way you're putting is "Russia did X therefore they knew (meaning predicted/guessed) that Y was gonna happen". I don't disagree. However, the other person said "Russia saw it coming, it was doing X before Y". This inverts the causality because it suggests that Y was gonna happen regardless, and as a consequence they started X ahead of time. Russia wants to be a superpower, but somehow is always the victim.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#87

Post by georgeecollins »

johanneskanybal wrote: post #62
georgeecollins wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right! This article very misleadingly confuses leaving the Bretton wood agreement and going off the gold standard as defaults. I think that is the same only in the mind of this author, who seems to be trying to normalize something that would be very dumb to do.

Imagine I promise to pay you back in Johannes-money that is pegged to the value of 1kg gold and then when it’s time to pay back I change the peg to 1kg rasins. I bet that’s pretty close to a default in most peoples opinions.

I can imagine that, but because I know about finance I know that in reality a person in the US could not exchange $35 for an ounce of gold in 1971. In theory sovereign nations had that right up until 1972, but in practice lots of agreements between nations made in the decade and a half before 1972 undermined that right by limiting exchanges or asking foreign governments to hold dollars in place of gold.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#88

Post by neodymiumphish »

harimau777 wrote: post #78
neodymiumphish wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious who is engaging in the gamesmanship in this scenario. This has been an issue long in the making with our deficit ballooning, even after significant increases in federal revenue. The bill signed by Republicans is hardly extreme, and when we considering the amount of expenses being paid to interest alone, it's clear the federal government needs to do something at this point. Legislators across both aisles h…

Without including meaningful tax increases, I don't think that the Republican bill can really be said to be a serious proposal. "We get everything we want and you get nothing" isn't a good faith negotiating position.

Spending is the side of the equation that's most problematic, though. Renevue has increased substantially lately, but the federal government has continued blowing past it at pretty insane rates. Both parties are obviously at fault, but this is the first major effort intended to curb it that we've seen in a long while.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#89

Post by jjoonathan »

thomastjeffery wrote: post #84
shagymoe wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a weird flavor of kook-aid you're drinking there.

You mean the tap water? I didn't create our advocate for this situation: I'm just living in it.

If so, you need to get your tap water checked. Something is leaching in. You need one of those little testing kits that turns red when it detects conservative talking points.

In any case, the Democrats have a few large, obvious subgroups: the Justice Dems, the Economic Left, and "MSNBC Liberals." Let's call them the AOC, Bernie, and Biden factions. Sure, they bicker between elections and fight during primaries but they inevitably unite for the general election. Just as with any FPTP coalition.

The Republicans have big divisions too. Trump and DeSantis have very different visions for the party. Remember the chants of "Hang Mike Pence!" on Jan 6? That wasn't unity. Neither was Tucker Carlson getting fired. Next primary season should be entertaining, but I've seen this movie too many times to put much stock in left-wing pundits' prediction that the Republican party will actually fall apart. Our talking heads do it too, see? No, Republicans will unite for the general. Just as with any FPTP coalition.

Re: The four times the United States government defaulted on its debt (2021)

#90

Post by thomastjeffery »

jjoonathan wrote: post #89
thomastjeffery wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean the tap water? I didn't create our advocate for this situation: I'm just living in it.

If so, you need to get your tap water checked. Something is leaching in. You need one of those little testing kits that turns red when it detects conservative talking points. In any case, the Democrats have a few large, obvious subgroups: the Justice Dems, the Economic Left, and "MSNBC Liberals." Let's call them the AOC, Bernie, and Biden factions. Sure, they bicker between elections and fight during primaries but th…

> In any case, the Democrats have a few large, obvious subgroups

The elected Democrats, yes. What about Democrat voters?

> The Republicans have big divisions too. Trump and DeSantis have very different visions for the party.

Absolutely, but that doesn't stop the average Republican/conservative voter from supporting either candidate at the end of the day.

> I've seen this movie too many times to put much stock in left-wing pundits' prediction that the Republican party will actually fall apart.

I was literally just advocating the opposite prediction. I get that you want to read between the lines of my comment, but I am not the one writing there.

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