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Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

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Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#31

Post by gumby »

sereja wrote: post #27
gumby wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> especially the EU, which was mostly built on the basis of confrontation with Russia I think you have the EU and NATO confused. The two overlap a lot but they are far from coextensional.

The EU is primarily a trade bloc, and it is in natural competition with the Eurasian Economic Union: countries can have tariff-free trade with either one bloc or the other, but not both at the same time. The current scramble over Ukraine is primarily motivated by the EU and the EAEU economically benefiting from the country being in their respective trade zone.

The EU is in origin and execution a political entity in which trade is one of its tools. The value of adding, say, Romania to the EU was hardly economic, but important for the anti-war mission. The integration of Turkey would be economically quite significant and valuable, but (sadly) lacks impetus on the political side. It is a NATO member.

Likewise, Ukraine’s prewar economy was so small (midway between Hungary and Slovakia) that it would have been economically irrelevant to the EU but, as we have seen, important in the anti war basis.

The economic size of the Eurasian Economic Union is quite small and I doubt it plays into the planning of anyone but its members and some of its immediate neighbors.

I am from a small country with an economy roughly the size of Russia’s (Australia) and it’s clear that the EU has little interest, positive or negative with trade with Australia. Conversely I have literally never seen mention of the Eurasian version in an Australian newspaper.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#32

Post by thriftwy »

gumby wrote: post #31
sereja wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is primarily a trade bloc, and it is in natural competition with the Eurasian Economic Union: countries can have tariff-free trade with either one bloc or the other, but not both at the same time. The current scramble over Ukraine is primarily motivated by the EU and the EAEU economically benefiting from the country being in their respective trade zone.

The EU is in origin and execution a political entity in which trade is one of its tools. The value of adding, say, Romania to the EU was hardly economic, but important for the anti-war mission. The integration of Turkey would be economically quite significant and valuable, but (sadly) lacks impetus on the political side. It is a NATO member. Likewise, Ukraine’s prewar economy was so small (midway between Hungary and…

The elephant in the room is that if you invite everybody in your anti-war club, but one country, that remaining country will get really nervous and you might as well get a war (what we are seeing).

If the situation is that you can't invite everybody in, then the plan is defective from the start.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#33

Post by deadly_syn »

bequanna wrote: post #24
cynicalsecurity wrote: post #10

Russians don't need a book, they need Molotov cocktails. They are much more effective when thrown at the regime's oppressive forces.

Who would win: An unarmed populace vs one of the best equipped militaries in the world? Unless you get a bunch of Russian generals to defect, the people don’t stand a chance.

The same millitary that got run through a meatgrinder and ran out of bullets in some instances?

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#34

Post by iinnPP »

yazzku wrote: post #17
cs702 wrote: post #3

If this is true, it suggests many Russians actually want their country to become a democracy: > Objectively — though it’s awkward to say — the book has become a bit of a phenomenon. But the book, “The End of the Regime: How Three European Dictatorships Ended”, is not about Russia or Vladimir Putin. It’s about three dictatorships — those of Francisco Franco in Spain, Antonio Salazar in Portugal and the colonels in Gre…

Of course there are many Russians that want an end to the regime. At least, every Russian I know. Why wouldn't they?

Sounds like every citizen globally. Except for oligarchs, also globally.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#35

Post by carlmr »

thriftwy wrote: post #32
gumby wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is in origin and execution a political entity in which trade is one of its tools. The value of adding, say, Romania to the EU was hardly economic, but important for the anti-war mission. The integration of Turkey would be economically quite significant and valuable, but (sadly) lacks impetus on the political side. It is a NATO member. Likewise, Ukraine’s prewar economy was so small (midway between Hungary and…

The elephant in the room is that if you invite everybody in your anti-war club, but one country, that remaining country will get really nervous and you might as well get a war (what we are seeing). If the situation is that you can't invite everybody in, then the plan is defective from the start.

The EU is quite liberal in accepting countries to the anti-war club, but they need to adhere to some standards regarding human rights, trade, and democracy.

If you crash your own party with some people that don't fit in, you will cause the guests you wanted to have to leave.

Any countries not in the EU don't want to be in the EU. And that's fine.

And looking at what the EU does you don't have to be scared if you don't join. It's a defensive union first and foremost.

Switzerland isn't scared about the EU invading despite largely uncontrolled borders.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#36

Post by gumby »

thriftwy wrote: post #32
gumby wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is in origin and execution a political entity in which trade is one of its tools. The value of adding, say, Romania to the EU was hardly economic, but important for the anti-war mission. The integration of Turkey would be economically quite significant and valuable, but (sadly) lacks impetus on the political side. It is a NATO member. Likewise, Ukraine’s prewar economy was so small (midway between Hungary and…

The elephant in the room is that if you invite everybody in your anti-war club, but one country, that remaining country will get really nervous and you might as well get a war (what we are seeing). If the situation is that you can't invite everybody in, then the plan is defective from the start.

NATO discussed bringing Russia in during the 1990s, and Russia was invited and did join some NATO regular meetings until relatively recently, but wasn't that interested in joining.

I'm not faulting Russia for their position, just pointing out the thing you are claiming should have happened did indeed happen.

But I will point out that Australia is as rich as Russia yet has not started any wars (except against its own aboriginal population, true of Russia as well) so there is no anti-Australia alliance. Two of the three largest war-mongers in Europe (Germany, France, and until recently UK) have been restrained in a web of agreements and alliances, not seeing them as a threat but as a reassurance. If Russia feels encircled, it should start by looking in the mirror.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#37

Post by Yoric »

thriftwy wrote: post #32
gumby wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is in origin and execution a political entity in which trade is one of its tools. The value of adding, say, Romania to the EU was hardly economic, but important for the anti-war mission. The integration of Turkey would be economically quite significant and valuable, but (sadly) lacks impetus on the political side. It is a NATO member. Likewise, Ukraine’s prewar economy was so small (midway between Hungary and…

The elephant in the room is that if you invite everybody in your anti-war club, but one country, that remaining country will get really nervous and you might as well get a war (what we are seeing). If the situation is that you can't invite everybody in, then the plan is defective from the start.

Not really?

I mean, I haven't seen any rumor of war between the EU and Switzerland, or Turkey, or the United Kingdom, or really any other of its neighbors other than Russia.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#38

Post by netsharc »

thriftwy wrote: post #26
yazzku wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course there are many Russians that want an end to the regime. At least, every Russian I know. Why wouldn't they?

Russians do indeed want to have some different regime eventually, but usually not at cost of losing the war, having their economy destroyed or getting their country torn apart, etc. Only the young 'children of summer' generation who did not witness 1991 fallout would root for immediate uncontrolled regime change via revolution. Hence it is not a very popular point, and many of its adherents have fleed the country.

Interesting keyword, "regime". Seems like many dictatorships fell in the last decade, in the Arab world, to be replaced by other tyrannical leaders or civil war. Russia seems to have a lot of people in good seats to be a Putin replacement, of course most of them with the same goal of Putin's, i.e. self-enrichment. And to be in such a seat you're usually rich and powerful...

And if you're not rich/powerful, you still need their support to be leader, and give them a quid-pro-quo and be nice to them. Just like in many democracies...

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#39

Post by thriftwy »

netsharc wrote: post #38
thriftwy wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russians do indeed want to have some different regime eventually, but usually not at cost of losing the war, having their economy destroyed or getting their country torn apart, etc. Only the young 'children of summer' generation who did not witness 1991 fallout would root for immediate uncontrolled regime change via revolution. Hence it is not a very popular point, and many of its adherents have fleed the country.

Interesting keyword, "regime". Seems like many dictatorships fell in the last decade, in the Arab world, to be replaced by other tyrannical leaders or civil war. Russia seems to have a lot of people in good seats to be a Putin replacement, of course most of them with the same goal of Putin's, i.e. self-enrichment. And to be in such a seat you're usually rich and powerful... And if you're not rich/powerful, you still…

I don't think you're interpreting the case of Vladimir Putin clearly. It's quite obvious he will not have any chance to actually use his money that he may have stowed away. Autocrats don't get to retire.

He also has no official family, his suspected relatives are quite well off but nothing spectacular. And it's hard to explain why a kleptocrat would want to start a war which will make his funds actively sought after all across globe and confiscated wherever found.

Whatever cuckoo bananas framework of State government Galkovsky has, it sounds more believeable than naive Navalnist "con men and thieves" with regards to Putin. The other people you've mentioned may fit the kleptocrat profile perfectly, but it's hard to argue how the war would benefit their prospects of keeping that money.

That's also the weak link of Navalnist's "Putin builds his palace" narrative - it's obvious that for any palace built, Putin does not get to enjoy it now and he certainly is not going to enjoy it afterwards, so it can't be his palace.

Re: Russians Seem Interested in My Book About How Dictatorships End

#40

Post by thriftwy »

Yoric wrote: post #37
thriftwy wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The elephant in the room is that if you invite everybody in your anti-war club, but one country, that remaining country will get really nervous and you might as well get a war (what we are seeing). If the situation is that you can't invite everybody in, then the plan is defective from the start.

Not really? I mean, I haven't seen any rumor of war between the EU and Switzerland, or Turkey, or the United Kingdom, or really any other of its neighbors other than Russia.

Have you heard of North Cyprus? Also, North Ireland.
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