Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#361

Post by sokka_h2otribe » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:25 PM UTC

George83728 wrote: post #273

ajcp wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live downtown PHX (Roosevelt Row) and beyond riding in them I MUCH prefer them driving around on the streets than actual human drivers. There isn't a day goes by that I don't see drivers make up 4-way stops, disregard the 4-way stops, flip a youey in the middle of an intersection, etc. Contrast that to the ever predictable Weymo, just quietly going about their little self-driving existence. Only problem I've seen w…

> If a Waymo sees a human on the corner that looks like they will cross it will stop and wait until the heat-death of the universe for them to cross. I've had humans do this, when I had no intention of crossing the street because I was just standing at the corner waiting to meet somebody. At least the humans give up after a few seconds, with exacerbated expressions like I'm the one who did something wrong. It would b…

I do this all the time as a walker too! But I try to step away from the curb and signal clear dis-intent. That's bc when I'm driving the neccesary bias is to assume that all pedestrians could be erratic and go into the street at anytime. It's neccesary because even if it's only 10% you can't accept any errors.

In other words, I'm trying to politely set the groundwork to say I think you are wrong if we assume having pedestrians signal clear dis-intent to cross is a reasonable requirement. Of course, the drivers are also wrong to be exasperated with you so I do think in a sense both parties are wrong :D.)

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#362

Post by ra7 » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:25 PM UTC

gonehome wrote: post #348

xnx wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is retroactive justification for using low-cost sensors. There's a chance they get lucky and pull it off with only cameras, but the chance of Tesla doing that is much less likely than Waymo getting their sooner with more sensors (or even even the Waymo driver achieving it with only vision if they chose. Using a full suite of sensors gives Waymo much better training data if they ever chose to use vision-only.

I think Tesla does use Lidar in training for what it's worth (at least I recall someone telling me this - I think it was a friend that worked there but not 100% sure I'm remembering correctly). It's possible the lidar approach only really works with up to date high resolution maps and without that you end up in a local max you can't really escape with that approach. That's been Tesla's argument up to this point anywa…

> It's possible the lidar approach only really works with up to date high resolution maps and without that you end up in a local max you can't really escape with that approach.

Sorry, but you’re just repeating Elon Musk’s buzzwords like “local maximum”. It doesn’t make sense. There’s no such thing as “lidar approach”. All sensor inputs are fused (early/late fusion) and run through perception algorithms. Lidar is used for localization with maps, but that’s not even its primary use (that’s object detection). And it does not require maps to be up to date either.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#363

Post by xnx » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:28 PM UTC

pfsalter wrote: post #285

abecedarius wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once it makes economic sense to design car models specifically for robotaxi use, small light one-passenger electric models may well become the most common type. In the graph I linked from my other reply, a one-person E.V. like this beat all of the transit systems and came in second only to an electric scooter/trike.

Still more cost efficient to run a single bus than separate vehicles, just in maintenance alone. Also we already have buses, these single occupation EVs that still have enough space for a decent battery size don't exist.

These seems reasonable, but I don't think the math holds up. A 2016 study (http://www.columbia.edu/~ja3041/Electric%20Bus%20Analysis%20...) showed the lifetime cost (including maintenance) of a bus for its 12 year useful lifespan to be $1.4 million. Without even doing the inflation adjustment, that could buy at least 12 electric vehicles. Those 12 vehicles could be much more efficient even running on a single fixed bus route (i.e. more frequent schedule), or (more likely) operating like taxis by taking people to and from exactly where they want to go.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#364

Post by sagarm » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:33 PM UTC

xnx wrote: post #356

sagarm wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most roads off rush hour are sparsely populated; seems inefficient, let's pedestrianize them.

With autonomous vehicles we could! You could safely bike coast to coast on the shoulder of any highway. The possibilities are truly spectacular.

Autonomous vehicles will not make cycling or walking next to much faster multi-ton vehicles more pleasant, even if those vehicles are less likely to kill you. I mean, have you walked along even a 35mph road with significant traffic? It's extremely unpleasant due to the noise and air pollution.

In fact, today the area around elevated freeways is often much cheaper than the surrounding area for several blocks.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#365

Post by xnx » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

kpw94 wrote: post #157

austinkhale wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- The cars are very safe, very conservative drivers - The interiors are nice, well air conditioned and don't smell - You don't have to talk to a person, which I don't always hate but have had some bad experiences. This just removes the roll of the dice from the equation entirely. - They are currently at par or cheaper with Uber/Lyft prices and typically it's faster for the car to arrive - You get to play your own mus…

> The interiors are nice, well air conditioned and don't smell If they scale, that will become a problem: - people puking in car - people having sex in car - people eating greasy fries in car These happen in public transportation too (the sex one not as often, but puking, eating smelly/gross food definitely), but the big difference here is that users won't be anonymous. The next waymo rider (or waymo staff if the car…

Possible, but this behavior would get you immediately perma-banned by the vehicle operators because they 1) know who you are before you enter the vehicle 2) Have video recording of the vehicle, before, during, and after your ride. If the cameras didn't record some damage (smell?) to the vehicle, it's likely the next passenger would report it.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#366

Post by bobthepanda » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:36 PM UTC

xnx wrote: post #359

bobthepanda wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In cities where space is at a premium, a bunch of people standing, or on a bicycle, will always beat out people sitting down with room for an engine and a trunk. Average occupancy of a car is 1.5 in the US, and that number shrinks as household size declines. (It’s also worth noting that there’s no reason that automated technologies wouldn’t also spread to buses and trains. In fact, you can already automate trains. Th…

Keep going with that thinking. What if trains were autonomous, electric, exactly/efficiently sized to what they were transporting, didn't require expensive/dedicated tracks, and could go directly between any 2 points? You end up with autonomous vehicles.

Trains are nice because they don’t require massive reconfigurations to hold varying crowds of people and the things they carry. People move furniture on subways all the time. There isn’t really a ‘perfectly sized’ personal vehicle; even now, just the simple bifurcation between a normal and XL taxi leads to longer waits for the latter, and god forbid you need special accommodations like for a wheelchair.

Car-like vehicles have massive inefficiencies, because the act of merging into and out of other lanes is inefficient.

A train line can carry up to 80k people per direction per hour. The FHWA’s estimate of a car lane car capacity is 2k people per direction per hour. And because cars have to eventually dump onto a surface network that requires timed cycles so that pedestrians and cyclists can cross the street, these low capacity segments are actually the bottleneck.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#367

Post by xnx » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:36 PM UTC

josefx wrote: post #278

austinkhale wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- The cars are very safe, very conservative drivers - The interiors are nice, well air conditioned and don't smell - You don't have to talk to a person, which I don't always hate but have had some bad experiences. This just removes the roll of the dice from the equation entirely. - They are currently at par or cheaper with Uber/Lyft prices and typically it's faster for the car to arrive - You get to play your own mus…

> You don't have to talk to a person, which I don't always hate but have had some bad experiences. This just removes the roll of the dice from the equation entirely. Given that they are a Google/Alphabet company this seems like a missed opportunity for running ads on loop.

The attention of a captive audience will absolutely be monetized. This could happen any number of ways, but likely that there will be an option (like YouTube) to pay extra for an ad-free experience.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#368

Post by ajcp » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:39 PM UTC

StrictDabbler wrote: post #171

ajcp wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live downtown PHX (Roosevelt Row) and beyond riding in them I MUCH prefer them driving around on the streets than actual human drivers. There isn't a day goes by that I don't see drivers make up 4-way stops, disregard the 4-way stops, flip a youey in the middle of an intersection, etc. Contrast that to the ever predictable Weymo, just quietly going about their little self-driving existence. Only problem I've seen w…

I have never tried to spell the phrase "flip a youey" before. It might be the only word I use that I have never considered spelling, so I am grateful that you included it your comment. That said, I think you are wrong and it should be "uey", "uie," "u-ie," or any other spelling that emphasizes the "u" after which the term is named. Also "I do not know the answer but I am sure you are wrong" is the most internetish co…

Hahahaha! So good of you to call that out because I had never seen the word written out before either and literally tried every form you suggested and more (you-ie, u-ee, uy, etc). To be honest I settled on 'youey' not because it was the one I thought was correct, rather it was the one I thought most people would understand.

I also toyed with just putting "flip a bitch" but figured some might find that problematic as I'm not entirely sure of it's etymology...

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#369

Post by panick21_ » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:42 PM UTC

twoWhlsGud wrote: post #267

panick21_ wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drivers do fine if the infrastructure is designed for humans rather then for cars. The reason so many people die in US cities is because of policy, not because people can't drive inherently.

Driver quality in the US is much lower than in cycling hotspots like the Netherlands or Denmark. Infrastructure helps, but better drivers are critical.

I think it feels that way because people just drive much faster. If you forced people to slow down, I don't think the avg quality of driver is worse.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#370

Post by xnx » Sat, May 06, 2023, 5:47 PM UTC

dangus wrote: post #132

austinkhale wrote: post #5

I live inside the original area in Phoenix where they did their training. I have to give kudos where it's due. I originally _hated_ their cars constantly driving around our neighborhood, but I was persuaded to try one a few weeks back. It completely changed my mind. They are now my favorite way to get around. I am a very happy, frequent customer and hope they keep adding coverage and more cars. This is absolutely the…

A hopefully not-too-annoying reminder that this isn’t a future that is sustainable or desirable to live in compared with alternatives. It’s really just better than the automotive hellscape you are used to. Phoenix is one of the most car-centric places to live in the country. The only reason anyone needs a service like this is because of the area’s complete failure in urban planning. Car-focused infrastructure is incr…

A future with all autonomous vehicles is about the best transportation future I can imagine! Go directly point-to-point in private transportation quickly, quietly, safely and efficiently. In a fully-autonomous future, infrastructure needs are dramatically reduced: no parking, fewer lanes of traffic, minimal road surface (could even just be 2 "rails" of pavement for the tires). Fully-autonomous vehicles could also reduce domestic flights dramatically (and all the associated fuel consumption and noise).