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Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

blog.waymo.com

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Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument was more that to do it generally you need vision to work, lidar will always be a narrow solution and redundant when you have vision. It might end up that solving the narrow city problem with high res maps is valuable enough to tackle anyway, but it could still be true that will never solve the general case. Of course, it could be true that Tesla was be unable to solve it also. Though at some point attach…

Just because humans can generally do it without lidar and other sensors, does not mean that lidar and other sensors, would not improve human driving, if we could somehow integrate them seamlessly (and well reduce their price). A car equipped with more sensors, will always be better at handling more situations, than the one without them, no matter how "smart" their drivers become.

> A car equipped with more sensors, will always be better at handling more situations

Yes, integrating seamlessly is the hard part.

For Tesla, they found the increased sensor fusion complexity made the overall system less reliable, which was what informed their attempt at vision only. Karpathy went into this on Lex Fridman's podcast.

Only with better sensor fusion algorithms that worst case the overall system performance doesn't degrade with additional sensors. Tesla could have hit compute bounds in order to meet latency requirements for example (or they couldn't find the right technique/algorithms).

Sounds like a hard problem but I imagine this would eventually be overcome in the future. More sensors is definitely the future.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#332
post #48

The Waymo approach has proven itself. Targeted testing, running the driver in hard mode as much as possible, is better than the Tesla approach. Tesla’s plan was essentially “machine learning underpants gnomes”. Collect ten billion miles of data from guys driving down 280 -> ??? -> profit. Didn’t work and now Tesla is recognized as being dead last in the game, behind dozens of no-name Chinese players. Now what I wonde…

What does “running the driver in hard mode as much as possible” mean?

Why do you think Tesla’s approach “didn’t work and they are now dead last in the game?”

Maybe that’s just an opinion because you provided nothing to back it up - but I can tell you not only does AutoPilot/FSD Beta work, the latest FSD Beta stack (I’m driving 11.3.6) works extremely well.

Tesla has orders of magnitude more passenger-miles driven than any other solution, which is one quantitative way to gauge success.

Tesla’s latest FSD Beta safety record on city streets is also excellent - 10x fewer accidents per mile than Cruise for example.

This is another huge win for Tesla but it’s important to note that this is accomplished in part by requiring strict driver oversight (enforced through gaze & attention tracking in the cabin camera). So the significantly lower accident rate is not an apple-to-apples comparison of two L4 solutions, but it convincingly shows that their L2 solution is actively making the city and highway roads safer for the driver and the cars & pedestrians that they are sharing the road with.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#333

Really love what waymo have been achieving with a relatively small team, but more importantly, they’ve had their heads down working and solving hard problems instead of opting for attention-seeking behavior, making ridiculously pompous claims and false promises (e.g. delivering robotaxies that make you $30k/yr by next year!), getting into ideological (sensor) wars, etc. (How many people know the name of their CEO? An…

> relatively small team 2,800 employees on Linkedin > instead of opting for attention-seeking behavior, making ridiculously pompous claims and false promises Waymo and Jaguar announced in 2018 plans to build up to 20,000 vehicles in the first two years of production [0] Cheap shots, I know (they did say "up to" 20,000 vehicles, after all). Waymo have been making great progress lately, and it's nice to see the AV indu…

> Cheap shots, I know

Definitely. The big picture is that they are very careful and conservative with their statements about the future, but if you look hard enough you can always find something. With Tesla it's the polar opposite.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you’re saying is probably true, but are you proposing razing Phoenix and rebuilding it as a less car-focused place? My sense is that that proposal wouldn’t be too popular with the people whose homes you’re tearing down, nor would necessarily the change in lifestyle they would be forced to undergo (after I’m sure what would be decades of rebuilding…).

There are more compelling reasons to not have cities in the desert. If water sources dry up it won't be necessary to raze the city. People will leave anyway.

Phoenix is located at the confluence of the Gila and Salt rivers. Municipal water use is flat since the 1990s while the population has increased from 1 to 1.5 million [1]. Its modern canal system is built on the ruins of irrigation works built by the Hohoklams over 1000 years ago [2]. Locations around the metro area have been inhabited for even longer. And finally, agriculture is 70% of water use state-wide [3]. Some embarrassingly large portion of that is used to grow alfalfa which is exported to the middle east where they have actual deserts.

What scenario did you have in mind where the city runs out of water? I bet the nice folks who actually do this kind of work would love to hear about it. They seem exceedingly confident in their water portfolio [4]. Or maybe you’re just speculating; a little curiosity goes a long way [5].

[1] https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservices/resourcesconservation/...

[2] https://news.wef.org/ancient-engineering-lays-groundwork-for...

[3] https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

[4] https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservices/resourcesconservation/...

[5] https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environme...

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#335
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think that TCI was the reason for the layoffs?

https://www.teamblind.com/post/Google-Layoffs---TCI-Fund-Yq4... This is a follow-up from TCI

Your interpretation of these facts is rather loose.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#336
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.teamblind.com/post/Google-Layoffs---TCI-Fund-Yq4... This is a follow-up from TCI

Your interpretation of these facts is rather loose.

How so? Here are the facts:

1. TCI writes a letter to Google saying that they should layoff employees.

2. A few weeks later, Google lays off employees.

3. Literally the day the Google layoffs are announced, TCI writes a letter to Google saying "I have appreciated our recent dialogue concerning Alphabet's cost base. I am encouraged to see that you are now taking some action to right size Alphabet's cost base and understand that it is never an easy decision to let people go."

How else should these facts be interpreted.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#337
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congestion pricing is congestion pricing because traffic is bad. Waymo doesn’t solve traffic.

it solves static traffic, which in many cities will solve traffic

How does it solve static traffic? Do you mean parking? Because a Waymo car takes up just as much space on the road as a human driven one.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#338
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have never tried to spell the phrase "flip a youey" before. As a former Scripps spelling bee contestant, I've developed a low-grade allergy to commonplace onomotopeic words with no obvious, agreed-upon spelling. Recently I struggled with zhuzh (which has the bonus terror of having an alternate spelling, 'zhoosh') - but I commend OP for having chosen a phonetically parseable spelling over one of your (arguably mor…

*onomatopoeic

Ironic.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#339
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If everyone can share a small fleet of self driving vehicles, they don’t need to take up a lot of space at all. I’m assuming you were talking about parking space; I don’t see how self driving cars would take up significantly more space than mass transit while on the road.

If a thousand people try to go to work at the same time, the car being driverless or not will not result in less than a thousand cars being driven, and the number of cars in the road is the biggest cause of congestion. However, a bus can carry a hundred people comfortably. Ten buses instead of a thousand cars results in much leas congestion.

Well, not exactly. The good thing is that automated, centrally booked autonomous systems can run pretty good car pools. Sure human drivers can do this but it's just not as practical. Not at all. So it's possible that those 1000 people might be served by 500, 300 or maybe even 250 autonomous cars.

Re: Waymo One doubles service area in Phoenix, continues growing in SF

#340
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your interpretation of these facts is rather loose.

How so? Here are the facts: 1. TCI writes a letter to Google saying that they should layoff employees. 2. A few weeks later, Google lays off employees. 3. Literally the day the Google layoffs are announced, TCI writes a letter to Google saying "I have appreciated our recent dialogue concerning Alphabet's cost base. I am encouraged to see that you are now taking some action to right size Alphabet's cost base and under…

As unilateral self-aggrandizing.
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