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Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

semianalysis.com

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Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#671

Post by wing-_-nuts »

ArlenBales wrote: post #496
patmorgan23 wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI=Microsoft for all intents and purposes. Microsoft has a stake in OpenAI and has integrated into Azure, Bing and Microsoft 365.

Microsoft will probably eventually integrate it into their Xbox services, and possibly games via their own first-party studios. In my opinion Microsoft has equal or more reach/subsidy advantage than Google for AI, at least toward general consumers.

Honestly, this makes me excited for future RPGs from bethesda. I've already seen mod demos where chatgpt does dialog for NPCs. Imagine a future elderscrolls or fallout where one could negotiate safe passage with the local raiders / bandits for a wheel of cheese or a 6 pack of nuka cola. A man can dream.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#672

Post by sealeck »

bionhoward wrote: post #629
zmmmmm wrote: post #493

I'm a bit sceptical of the "no moat" proposition because (a) ChatGPT 4.0 really does seem in a different league and (b) it's clearly very hard to run. I haven't seen anything from the explosion of open source / community efforts that comes close for general applications. The take in the post rings of the classic trademark Google arrogance where they assume that if somebody else can do it they can do it better if they…

Version 4 also now supports 32k tokens, good luck handling that on even awesome gaming local dev rig machines, although perhaps with linformer ideas, block-wise algorithms to handle larger than GPU memory, universal memory / RDMA it’s entirely doable. I got 50,000 atoms simulation back in 2018 on 11gb vram, at 32bit floats, the software stack has come a long way and now we have the 24gb 4090 with bfloat16, and vector…

Except that the models have been trained on publicly available data sources.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#673

Post by jlpom »

narrator wrote: post #396
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

I think the problem with AI being everywhere and ubiquitous is that AI is the first technology in a very long time that requires non-trivial compute power. That compute power costs money. This is why you only get a limited number of messages every few hours from GPT4. It simply costs too much to be a ubiquitous technology. For example, the biggest LLama model only runs on an A100 that costs about $15,000 on ebay. The…

[dead]

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#675

Post by essive »

stu432 wrote: post #566
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

Yes, bring back Clippy!!!

You must mean the new Albert Clippy!

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#676

Post by chinchilla2020 »

habitue wrote: post #494
chinchilla2020 wrote: post #467

This is not a leaked google memo. I can't believe hackernews believes an article like this is a memo at google. Kudos to the authors for finding a sneaky way to get traffic.

What makes you think it isn't an actual memo?

Doesn't fit the tone and formatting of an internal memo. It is written like an article.

* Lack of information about the author or their role * Lack of information about the org that published it * Sourced from an unnamed 'discord' * The 'memo' is formatted like a blog post

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#677

Post by sdwr »

kweingar wrote: post #659
safety1st wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

> In Google's case they are still really focused on search whereas LLMs arguably move the focus to answers. I would love to see what proportion of searches are questions that would benefit from natural language answers. The huge majority of my searches would not be improved by LLMs and in fact would probably be made worse. “Thai food near me”, “IRS phone number”, “golang cmp documentation”

That kind of myopic thinking is exactly why google might be in trouble.

Think about the problem, not your current solution.

"I'm hungry"

"I need to do my taxes"

"My code dont work right"

Searching for info is a solution to those problems, not the solution. The promise of AI (might take a while to get there) is having an agent that you trust to solve those problems for you.

Or learning your preferences over time.

Or folding the question into part of a longer dialogue.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#678

Post by syngrog66 »

Google has no moat, just a massive massive massive data set, a massive massive massive amount of compute to repurpose at whim, tons of cash, thousands of employees and a large number with AI/ML skills already. oh and control the dominant web browser and one of the top two dominant mobile OSes. and, and, and...

other than that, yes, no moat

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#679

Post by nicehill »

kmmlng wrote: post #653
safety1st wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

I feel like search still has its place. New information is being generated all the time. I want to be able to access it without having to retrain my LLM. It's also easier to validate that my search results are real. With LLMs, you never know if the answers are hallucinated or real. Where LLMs really shine is in understanding what I actually want. Where search still gives me many irrelevant answers, LLMs just get my q…

That's why I turn almost all of my personal notes into blog posts, so I can use Google to search my notes.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#680

Post by b33j0r »

dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

It’s an obvious cycle.

“I’m idealistic!”

“I’m starting a moral company!”

“Oh dear this got big. I need investors and a board.”

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