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Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

semianalysis.com

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Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#601

Post by sledgehammers »

"The value of owning the ecosystem cannot be overstated. Google itself has successfully used this paradigm in its open source offerings, like Chrome and Android. By owning the platform where innovation happens, Google cements itself as a thought leader and direction-setter, earning the ability to shape the narrative on ideas that are larger than itself."

This is breathtakingly sick. This kind of thinking is the poison of the world. This is why we have huge monopolies, huge wealth inequality, huge strangle on innovation.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#602

Post by bsaul »

safety1st wrote: post #591
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

in 1995 people understood very well what internet was going to become. The technology just wasn't there yet, but every kid and parents remember very well the sound of that modem and the phone lines beeing busy.

That memo would have been prescient if made 5 years before.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#603

Post by graycat »

safety1st wrote: post #591
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

> If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones).

Once an IBM Office Manager was offering me a job and explained

"IBM is a marketing organization."

So, the focus was not really on computers or phones but on the central, crucial, bet your business data processing of the larger and largest companies -- banking, insurance, manufacturing, ..., and marketing to them.

So, the focus of IBM was really on their target customers. So, if some target customers needed something, then IBM would design, build, and deliver it.

That may still be their focus.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#604

Post by IOT_Apprentice »

My observation is that Amazon is going to have challenges as they don’t have products that they can push their AI offerings.

Now they could do work on Amazon.com to improve search and finding what their customer wants.

Their most recent video on this topic, shows that they don’t have a solution now and it’s unclear to me how they will project a solution to the mass market as they don’t have consumer/business facing software to integrate it into as Microsoft does.

While we are at it, Apple has nothing, perhaps they might leverage something from either Google or an open.ai competitor that has a solution.

The continued destruction by Apple of the initial promise of Siri has been a major failure under Tim Cook’s leadership.

I wonder why they appear unable to fix this.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#605

Post by adalacelove »

bsaul wrote: post #602
safety1st wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

in 1995 people understood very well what internet was going to become. The technology just wasn't there yet, but every kid and parents remember very well the sound of that modem and the phone lines beeing busy. That memo would have been prescient if made 5 years before.

True but the remaining of the comment is still valid: Microsoft had time in advance to prepare.

But just "internet" doesn't mean a lot. Prescient would have been predicting search, ads and social media. We now are in a similar position maybe, with some tech that looks cool, trying to build geocities with AI

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#606

Post by mads_ravn »

bsaul wrote: post #602
safety1st wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

in 1995 people understood very well what internet was going to become. The technology just wasn't there yet, but every kid and parents remember very well the sound of that modem and the phone lines beeing busy. That memo would have been prescient if made 5 years before.

Yeah, I also thought of Eternal September [1] in 1993, when I saw the claim to prescience.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#607

Post by nivenkos »

safety1st wrote: post #591
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

Microsoft wanted to control it all with Blackbird and ActivePlatform.

Their greed ended up with them losing out (thankfully).

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#609

Post by precompute »

> The existence of such datasets follows from the line of thinking in Data Doesn't Do What You Think, and they are rapidly becoming the standard way to do training outside Google.

links to http://www.internalgooglesitescrubbedbyus.com/

Haha. Who writes this blog?

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#610

Post by midasuni »

safety1st wrote: post #591
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

There are no guarantees about who will or won't own the future, just the observation that disruptive technology makes everyone's fate more volatile. Big tech companies like Google have a lot of in-built advantages, but they're notoriously bad at executing on pivots which fundamentally alter or commoditize their core business. If that wasn't true we'd all be using Microsoft phones (or heck, IBM PCs AND phones). In Goo…

From memory Bill Gates barely mentioned the internet in his first edition of road ahead in early 95. By late 95 the second edition entire book was revolving around the internet as if he had an epiphany.
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