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Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

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Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#433
post #81

The part of the post that resonates for me is that working with the open source community may allow a model to improve faster. And, whichever model improves faster, will win - if it can continue that pace of improvement. The author talks about Koala but notes that ChatGPT is better. GPT-4 is then significantly better than GPT-3.5. If you've used all the models and can afford to spend money, you'd be insane to not use…

> users will go to whoever has the best model

Not me, I refuse to use OpenAI products but I do sometimes use vicuna 13b when I'm coding C. It's pretty good and I'm happy to see the rapid advancement of open source LLMs. It gives me hope for the future.

> Linux won in servers and supercomputing, but not in end user computing.

I use linux on all of my computers and I love it, many of us do (obviously). I'm aware that I'm a small minority even among other developers but I think looking at just statistics misses the point. Even if the majority will just use the most approachable tool (and there is nothing wrong with that), it's important to have an alternative. For me this is the point of open software, not market domination or whatever.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#435

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

I think the problem with AI being everywhere and ubiquitous is that AI is the first technology in a very long time that requires non-trivial compute power. That compute power costs money. This is why you only get a limited number of messages every few hours from GPT4. It simply costs too much to be a ubiquitous technology. For example, the biggest LLama model only runs on an A100 that costs about $15,000 on ebay. The…

This cost argument is being overblown. While it's a limitation for today's product, enginners are very good at optimization. Therefore the costs will drop in the medium to long term from efforts on both the software and hardware side.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#436
> "We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI"

and neither does Coca Cola and Cadbury. Yet biggest monopolies are found in these places. Because the competitors will not be differentiated enough for users to switch from the incumbent.

But G-AI is still nascent and there's lots of improvements to be had. I suspect better tech is a moat but ofcourse Google is oblivious to it.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#437
post #81

The part of the post that resonates for me is that working with the open source community may allow a model to improve faster. And, whichever model improves faster, will win - if it can continue that pace of improvement. The author talks about Koala but notes that ChatGPT is better. GPT-4 is then significantly better than GPT-3.5. If you've used all the models and can afford to spend money, you'd be insane to not use…

Midjourney is more popular because it takes zero technical know-how compared to SD (even with A1111 it took me nearly an hour to walk my competent-but-layman brother through installing it) and doesn't require a high-end gaming PC to run it. (DALL-E lost because they let MJ eat their lunch)

> DALL-E lost because they let MJ eat their lunch

I wonder why nobody is talking about Bing Image Creator

https://www.bing.com/images/create

which uses some much more advanced version of Dall-E 2 in the background (so Dall-E 2.5? 3?), while being completely free to use. It can produce some pretty mind blowing results with quite simple prompts, although apparently not as impressive as Midjourney V5. A few examples:

hyperrealistic

https://www.bing.com/images/create/hyperrealistic/644fa0c48f...

an allegory for femininity

https://www.bing.com/images/create/an-allegory-for-femininit...

portrait of a strange woman, hyperrealistic

https://www.bing.com/images/create/portrait-of-a-strange-wom...

allegory of logic, portrait

https://www.bing.com/images/create/allegory-of-logic2c-portr...

her strange bedfellow

https://www.bing.com/images/create/her-strange-bedfellow/644...

Mrs fox

https://www.bing.com/images/create/mrs-fox/6446e85a32134e649...

inside view

https://www.bing.com/images/create/inside-view/6446f1dc573f4...

in the midst of it all

https://www.bing.com/images/create/in-the-midst-of-it-all/64...

strange gal

https://www.bing.com/images/create/strange-gal/6446e2a2ea7a4...

sighting of a strange entity in an abandoned library

https://www.bing.com/images/create/sighting-of-a-strange-ent...

sleeping marble woman next to a wall of strange pictures inside an abandoned museum, close-up

https://www.bing.com/images/create/sleeping-marble-woman-nex...

sculpture of a woman posing next to a wall of strange pictures, close-up

https://www.bing.com/images/create/sculpture-of-a-woman-posi...

Easter

https://www.bing.com/images/create/easter/643ae4968aff432684...

Christmas on board a spaceship, DSLR photograph

https://www.bing.com/images/create/christmas-on-board-a-spac...

an angel, dancing to heavy metal

https://www.bing.com/images/create/an-angel2c-dancing-to-hea...

Saturday afternoon in the streets of a buzzing cyberpunk city, photo-realistic, DSLR

https://www.bing.com/images/create/saturday-afternoon-in-the...

The Dogfather

https://www.bing.com/images/create/the-dogfather/6441d18950b...

the unlikely guest

https://www.bing.com/images/create/the-unlikely-guest/644446...

Strange pictures in an abandoned museum

https://www.bing.com/images/create/strange-pictures-in-an-ab...

strange woman in an abandoned museum, close-up

https://www.bing.com/images/create/strange-woman-in-an-aband...

strange woman in an abandoned museum, strange pictures in the background

https://www.bing.com/images/create/strange-woman-in-an-aband...

a wall of strange pictures in an abandoned museum in Atlantis, close-up

https://www.bing.com/images/create/a-wall-of-strange-picture...

female sculpture in an abandoned museum in Atlantis, close-up

https://www.bing.com/images/create/female-sculpture-in-an-ab...

the unlikely guest

https://www.bing.com/images/create/the-unlikely-guest/644490...

an unlikely guest of the secret society in the lost city in a country without name, close-up

https://www.bing.com/images/create/an-unlikely-guest-of-the-...

I think the quality of most of these pictures is far beyond what is achievable with Dall-E 2. One issue that still exists (though to a lesser extent) is the fact that faces have to cover a fairly large area of the image. Smaller faces look strange, e.g. here:

photograph of the unlikely guests

https://www.bing.com/images/create/photograph-of-the-unlikel...

It is as if the model creates a good draft in low resolution, and another model scales it up, but the latter model doesn't know what a face is? (I have no idea how diffusion models actually work.)

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#438

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

I think the problem with AI being everywhere and ubiquitous is that AI is the first technology in a very long time that requires non-trivial compute power. That compute power costs money. This is why you only get a limited number of messages every few hours from GPT4. It simply costs too much to be a ubiquitous technology. For example, the biggest LLama model only runs on an A100 that costs about $15,000 on ebay. The…

Within a decade mid-level consumer cards will be just as powerful as those $40k cards.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#439

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

Google makes almost all its money from search. These platforms are all there to reinforce its search monopoly. ChatGPT has obsoleted search. ChatGPT will do to Google search what the Internet did to public libraries - make them mostly irrelevant.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#440
post #81

The part of the post that resonates for me is that working with the open source community may allow a model to improve faster. And, whichever model improves faster, will win - if it can continue that pace of improvement. The author talks about Koala but notes that ChatGPT is better. GPT-4 is then significantly better than GPT-3.5. If you've used all the models and can afford to spend money, you'd be insane to not use…

How can a company keep up with the speed of what is happening in the open?

Open AI had years of advanced that almost vanished in a few months.

And we will see the rise of specialized models, smaller but targeted, working in team, delegating (Hugging GPT)

I would use a small and fast model that only speak english, is expert at coding an science and not much more. Then you fire up an question to another model if yours is out of it’s area.

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