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Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

semianalysis.com

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Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#421

Post by int_19h »

SanderNL wrote: post #53

I have been toying around with Stable Diffusion for a while now and becoming comfortable with the enormous community filled with textual inversions , LoRAs , hyper networks and checkpoints . You can get things with names like “chill blend”, a fine-tuned model on top of the SD with the author’s personal style. There is something called automatic1111 which is a pretty comprehensive web UI for managing all these moving…

Local LLMs already have a UI intentionally similar to AUTOMATIC1111, including LoRAs, training with checkpoints, various extensions including multimodal and experimental long-term memory etc.

https://github.com/oobabooga/text-generation-webui

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#422

Post by blowski »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #409
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

Honestly, I can't see Google failing here. Like other tech giants, they're sitting on a ridiculously large war chest. Worst case, they can wait for the space to settle a bit and spend a few billion to buy the market leader. If AI really is an existential threat to their business prospects, spending their reserves on this is a no-brainer.

That was true for IBM in the 1970s and Microsoft in the 90s. Despite holding a royal flush, they managed to lose the game through a combination of arrogance, internal fighting, innovator's dilemma, concern over anti-trust, and bureaucratic inertia. It will be hard for Google to pull this off.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#424

Post by bhickey »

hintymad wrote: post #416

> They are doing things with $100 and 13B params Not that I disagree with the general belief that OSS community is catching up, but this specific data point is not as impactful as it sounds. Llama cannot be used for commercial purposes, and that $100 was spent on ChatGPT, which means we still depended on proprietary information of OpenAI. It looks to me that the OSS community needs a solid foundation model and a real…

https://www.together.xyz/blog/redpajama

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#425

Post by sgt101 »

vosper wrote: post #418
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

> OpenAI faces the existential risk, not Google. Yes, but the quickest way for anyone to get themselves to state-of-the-art is to buy OpenAI. Their existential risk is whether they continue to be (semi)independent, not whether they shutdown or not. Presumably Microsoft is the obvious acquirer, but there must be a bunch of others who could also be in the running.

But if you wait a month you can get that model for free...

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#426

Post by aero-deck »

dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

Disagree. What you have in mind is already how the masses interact AI. There is little value-add for making machine translation, auto-correct and video recommendations better.

I can think of a myriad of use-cases for AI that involve custom-tuning foundation models to user-specific environments. Think of an app that can detect bad dog behavior, or an app that gives you pointers on your golf swing. The moat for AI is going to be around building user-friendly tools for fine-tuning models to domain-specific applications, and getting users to spend enough time fine-tuning those tools to where the switch-cost to another tool becomes too high.

When google complains that there is no moat, they're complaining that there is no moat big enough to sustain companies as large as Google.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#428

Post by kbrkbr »

not2b wrote: post #417
kelipso wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, the open source model has been what's been working for the last few decades. The concern with LLMs was that open source (and academia) couldn't do what the big companies are doing because they couldn't get access to enough computing resources. The article is arguing (and I guess open source ML groups are showing) you don't need those computing resources to pave the way. It's still an open question whether…

But none of the "open source" AI models are open source in the classic sense. They are free but they aren't the source code; they are closer to a freely distributable compiled binary where the compiler and the original input hasn't been released. A true open source AI model would need to specify the training data and the code to go from the training data to the model. Certainly it would be very expensive for someone…

RWKV does: https://github.com/BlinkDL/RWKV-LM It uses „the Pile“: https://pile.eleuther.ai/ And I’ve seen some more in the last weeks.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#429

Post by bhl »

dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

> It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like

Agreed but I don’t think the products that’ll gain market share from this wave of AI will be legacy web 2 apps; rather it’ll be AI-native or first apps that are build from ground up to collect user data and fulfill user intent. Prime example is TikTok.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#430

Post by amelius »

titzer wrote: post #419
dahwolf wrote: post #389

The current paradigm is that AI is a destination. A product you go to and interact with. That's not at all how the masses are going to interact with AI in the near future. It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. In Office/Google docs, at the operating system level (Android), in your graphics editor (Adobe), on major web platforms: search, image search, Youtube, the like. Since Google and other…

> It's going to be seamlessly integrated into every-day software. I...kinda don't want this? UIs have already changed in so many different fits, starts, waves, and cycles. I used to have skills. But I have no skills now. Nothing works like it used to. Yeah they were tricky to use but I cannot imagine that a murky AI interface is going to be any easier to use, and certainly impossible to master. Even if it is easier t…

An AI interface in Office brings back memories of Clippy.
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