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Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

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Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#251
post #65

dissaproving_drake.jpg: Giving evidence you can match the capabilities of OpenAI approving_drake.jpg: Saying everything OpenAI does is easy

I'm feeling strangely comforted to have pictured the mythological creature before the meme.

Yes. Same here. I had flashes of Battle of Wesnoth. Then I realized...

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#252

I remember I was at Microsoft more than a decade ago now and at the time there was a lot of concern about search and how far Bing lagged behind Google in geospatial (maps). After some initial investment in the area I was at a presentation where one of the higher ups explained that they'd be abandoning their investment because Google Maps would inevitably fall behind crowdsourcing and OpenStreetMap. Just like Encarta…

I've been using osm more and more recently. Google just makes a bunch of frustrating decisions that really pushed me to look elsewhere. Especially in the public transport layer, but more generally in being really bad at deciding when to hide details with no way to override it and say "TELL ME THE NAME OF THIS CROSS STREET DAMNIT THATS THE ONLY REASON I KEEP ZOOMING IN HERE!!!".

> generally in being really bad at deciding when to hide details with no way to override it and say "TELL ME THE NAME OF THIS CROSS STREET DAMNIT THATS THE ONLY REASON I KEEP ZOOMING IN HERE!!!".

Stuff like this is the main reason I end up switching to Apple Maps on the occasions that I do so. Another example is refusing to tell me the number of the upcoming exit I'm taking.

In general I would say Google Maps is still superior to Apple Maps, but between the aforementioned baffling design decisions and Google maps now including ads in destinations search results, I find myself experiencing more and more mental friction whenever I use it.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#253

Having enough scale to perpetually offer free/low-cost compute is a moat. The primary reason ChatGPT went viral in the first place was because it was free, with no restrictions. Back in 2019, GPT-2 1.5B was made freely accessible by a single developer via the TalkToTransformers website, which was the very first time many people talking about AI text generation...then the owner got hit with sticker shock from the GPU…

And ChatGPT has a super low barrier to entry while open source alternatives have a high one.

Creating a service that can compete with it on that regard implies you can scale GPU farms in a cost effective way.

It's not as easy as it sounds.

Meanwhile, openai still improves their product very fast, and unlike google, it's their only one. It's their baby. It has their entire focus.

Since for most consumers, AI == ChatGPT, they have the best market share right now, which mean the most user feedback to improve their product. Which they do at a fast pace.

They also understand that to get mass adoption, they need to censor the AI, like MacDonald and Disney craft their family friendly image. Which irritate every geeks, including me, but make commercially sense.

Plus, despite the fact you can torrent music and watch it with VLC, and that Amazon+Disney are competitors, netflix exists. Having a quality service has value in itself.

I would not count open ai as dead as a lot of people seem to desperately want it to be. Just because Google missed the AI train doesn't mean wishful thinking the market to be killed by FOSS is going to make it so.

As usual with those things it's impossible to know in advance what's going to happen, but odds are not disfavoring chatgpt as much as this article says.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#254
Innovation is faster in the Bazaar. Nobody is beholden to anyone, there is no budget, there is no mandate, there is no hierarchy. Money can not compete with morale and motivation. A bunch of really smart nerds working overtime for free with flat hierarchy will always win.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#255

I remember I was at Microsoft more than a decade ago now and at the time there was a lot of concern about search and how far Bing lagged behind Google in geospatial (maps). After some initial investment in the area I was at a presentation where one of the higher ups explained that they'd be abandoning their investment because Google Maps would inevitably fall behind crowdsourcing and OpenStreetMap. Just like Encarta…

Google Maps 3D view is unmatched compared to anything open source has to offer.

Let alone the panning and zooming, there is no open source solution which is capable of doing it with such a correctness, even if we ignore Google's superb "satellite" imagery with its 3D conversion. I have no access to Apple Maps, so I can't compare (DuckDuckGo does not offer Apple's 3D view).

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#256

I remember I was at Microsoft more than a decade ago now and at the time there was a lot of concern about search and how far Bing lagged behind Google in geospatial (maps). After some initial investment in the area I was at a presentation where one of the higher ups explained that they'd be abandoning their investment because Google Maps would inevitably fall behind crowdsourcing and OpenStreetMap. Just like Encarta…

[deleted]

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#258

This is easily among the rare highest quality articles/comments I've read in the past weeks, perhaps months (on LLMs/AI since that's what I am particularly interested in). And this was for internal consumption before it was made public. Reinforces my recent impression that so much that's being made for public consumption now is shallow and it is hard to find the good stuff. And sadly, increasing so even on HN. As I w…

Most HN submissions are clickbait advertisements by startups for B2B/B2C services, clickbait amateur blog editorials looking for subscribers, tutorials for newbies, conspiracy theories, spam, and literally every article posted to a major media outlet. Most comments are by amateurs that sound really confident.

Don't believe me? Go look at https://news.ycombinator.com/newest . Maybe once a month you find something on here that is actually from an expert who knows what they're talking about and hasn't written a book on it yet, or a pet project by an incredibly talented person who has no idea it was submitted.

Source: I've been here for 14 years. That makes me a little depressed...

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#259

I remember I was at Microsoft more than a decade ago now and at the time there was a lot of concern about search and how far Bing lagged behind Google in geospatial (maps). After some initial investment in the area I was at a presentation where one of the higher ups explained that they'd be abandoning their investment because Google Maps would inevitably fall behind crowdsourcing and OpenStreetMap. Just like Encarta…

In terms of data, OSM is so far ahead of Google maps in my experience. The rendering is much better too. What's not there is obvious and easy to use tooling that anyone can interact with. I mean, there might be, but I don't know about it.

Is there a recommendation for OSM on mobile? IIRC they don't have an official app.

Also looking at their bike routing - it gives me an idea. Road should be rated on whether they have a dedicated bike lane and on the danger of riding on said road at particular times of day. I just input a src/dest and it gave me a really busy road with tons of "paperboy" level risky side roads on it. I would never want someone to take that route at 5pm on a weekday.

Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”

#260
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think you can use GPT-4 then you don't know what you're talking about. API access is on waitlist. UI has limit of 25 messages in 3 hours. If you think big, known companies can get ahead of the waitlist and use it - short answer is no, they can't because of their IP. Nobody is going to sign off leaking out all internal knowledge to play with something. ClosedAI seems to have big problem with capacity. Those poe…

Pretty easy to get API access, I got it within a few days. Aware this is a sample of one, but also can’t believe they fast tracked me.

It took me several weeks to get access. I just got it today.
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