I'm involved in the startup scene for soccer "moneyball" metric development. If anyone has any interest, contact me.
Curious to hear what you're up to as well
A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
71–80 of 106 posts
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
How good are they? You could try watching the movie,or better yet, read the book. They did well. Unfortunately for the As (and fortunately for those of us who embrace the statistical analysis of sports) other teams caught up and surpassed their approach. But it's still going on. In every sport. And there is much evidence that it works.
They did well, but they didn't win, and they haven't won. And winning is the point after all.
But they spent a lot less money to play pretty well, whereas other teams spent a ton of money to play about the same. Only one team can be the best, but many can be very good.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#73Wouldn't it be more noteworthy if we weren't able to find one analyst who predicted Lin? With the number of amateur analysts, and the number of players, you'd think that its likely there's a web page somewhere plugging every prospect.
I'd say the impressive thing is the analyst found some figures that seemed to have a high correlation to success, and Lin has panned out pretty close to how he described him. And remember, this is a player who wasn't even drafted, it'd be like finding an analyst tell you Tom Brady has a chance to be a top 5 QB before he was drafted in the 6th round after being a partial backup at Michigan, and backing it up with convincing data.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's insane. It's been suggested he was passed over because he's of Chinese decent. You'd think the teams would be climbing over themselves to get a good player with a Chinese name, because that's a way to get tens (or hundreds) of millions of Chinese fans. He's not the next Yao (since he's American born, for starters), but he'd still be worth a lot purely for the fans he'd draw. While "hundreds of millions" is oft…
I'm a Knicks fan visiting China right now. Jeremy Lin's game against the Lakers was the lead story on the sports program on television last night. He could catch on here.
I am a Nets fan for 12 years and hate the Knicks. Today I followed NYK vs MIN just because of Jeremy Lin. Game tied, 24 seconds left, and he got the ball in his hand. I could have became a Knicks fan if he made that layup. This is insane.
Nets spent billions to build a new arena. Knicks got Jeremy Lin.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#75Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight ga…
I'd like to add the Knicks gave serious consideration to cutting him from the roster hours before his first start because his 30-day contract was set to expire in a few days.
The moral of story here is that if you have an expiring contract, you better hope your next opponent would be the Nets ;)
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#76Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight ga…
I'd like to add the Knicks gave serious consideration to cutting him from the roster hours before his first start because his 30-day contract was set to expire in a few days.
Where did you hear this? I follow the Knicks closely and never heard they were considering cutting him.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd like to add the Knicks gave serious consideration to cutting him from the roster hours before his first start because his 30-day contract was set to expire in a few days.
Where did you hear this? I follow the Knicks closely and never heard they were considering cutting him.
All over the place, during the telecasts... etc.
They weren't going to cut him, so much as not renew his contract. His contract wasn't guaranteed, and he was living on his brother's couch.
They were going to let him go and probably sign vet Mike James (currently in the D league)
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#78here is a good article about how players leverage stats to force the other team into low percentage shots and plays http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?...
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#79What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.
That's a helluva a catch. At the core, stats tell a story of what a player has done in the past . Projections predict what a player might do based on what comparable players have done in the past . Statistics don't tell the future. They are just one tool of the scouting process. Plus the models are always evolving. What was considered an indicator of talent 20 years ago might be inferior to the indicator 10 years ago…
According to 'Thinking Fast and Slow' which I'm currently reading expert predictors of performance are generally worse than even quite simple statistical models. This being due to all the flaws in human decision making - if it's a sunny day, if the player 'looks the part' if the scout happens to view them on a day when they're feeling lucky. It's a very good book, but it suggests that in all fields of prediction you should actually rely on combinations of statistical metrics over expert judgment.
Pretty hard to believe I accept.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#80I love Jeremy Lin as a player and I really hope he succeeds. However, it must be said: Four games does not a statistically significant sample make. Read the NBA Playbook breakdown of his game: http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/ In summary, he isn't good going left or shooting from distance. So far he hasn't played an elite defensive team. The true test will come if he can sustain his performance…
Lakers are a top 10 defensive team (Bynum and Gasol should have not allowed 38 pts). Kobe has made former all defensive team Lin did a respectable job when Kobe defended him. Lin is probably only going to have trouble vs Westbrook, Wade, Rose, Rondo, and Paul, but at the same time, he is more than good enough to be an NBA starting PG right now.
We have to keep in mind he is doing this well despite the odds stacked against him.
- No jump shooters / scorers in the starting 5. - No practice. - A tremendous amount of expectation and pressure both nationally and internationally.
Dribbling with his left hand and making 3s will come. Derrick Rose took a couple years to get it down in terms of treys. It's a matter of effort, and by all accounts, Lin is a hard worker.
I would be completely shocked if he did not remain a starting PG in the NBA. His effect should only grow as Melo and Amare return.