61–70 of 106 posts
You'd probably have to deal with too many parameters (one for each player in the league)...or maybe not?
Pardon the vagueness, I'm only suggesting this as a theoretical exercise.
EDIT: well, that didn't take long. http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~zhangk/2010%20Scoring%20a...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is this anywhere the same? In a scam, you don't have any way of making any future correct predictions--it's just random. This analyst has a reasoned system that can be tested against past players and against future prospects. Sure, there's going to be someone out there that picks Jeremy Lin. But the trick is, can you correctly identify players who are already known to be good based on their college stats, make th…
His point is the number of people making predictions is high enough that it raises the bar for people to stand out from the pack. Basically run an ANOVA test on 10 groups vs 10,000 groups and it takes a larger divination to stand out from the pack. PS: It does not matter if there is a system behind their predictions, what matters is how well their predictions hold up over time. Otherwise your just: http://xkcd.com/90…
Ironic side note - I tried to use it as my ESPN.com forum account avatar, and was denied.
Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight ga…
If you go by the WP48 stat, Amare is actually the Knicks' second worst player and Carmelo is their 8th best player. Tyson Chandler is by far their best player, and is currently the second best player behind LeBron. http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/nyk
Earlier quoted context omitted.
NBA media and fans are much much more resistant to empirical stuff than baseball. I think it's because the appeal of the game is more about emotions and hype than baseball. There's this feeling that things can't be captured in the numbers, but what they use instead is so inferior for judging players. I mean the Knicks acquired Carmelo Anthony at the cost of all the efficient players on the team. All of the stats guys…
Baseball is easier to predict from statistics when compared to most other sports. Most plays in baseball occur in isolation (relatively). For example: pitcher vs. batter -- each pitch is essentially a new, repeatable experiment. In basketball, I would guess that there are very few repeatable experiments. (Different players, strategies, locations, etc). It is a much more fluid game and therefore determining an indicat…
I once read an interview with a Major League scout who said he relied heavily on the numbers. He basically said, "We can get any stats, on any of these guys, at any minute, and find out exactly where they are, and if they have the numbers for the big leagues."
Talk about pressure. . it was an eye opener.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How good are the Oakland A's? Not very. So how successful is the data driven approach really? Isn't accepting a single case like this in the NBA as any kind of proof unscientific?
How good are they? You could try watching the movie,or better yet, read the book. They did well. Unfortunately for the As (and fortunately for those of us who embrace the statistical analysis of sports) other teams caught up and surpassed their approach. But it's still going on. In every sport. And there is much evidence that it works.
Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight ga…
He's not the next Yao (since he's American born, for starters), but he'd still be worth a lot purely for the fans he'd draw.
While "hundreds of millions" is often just hyperbolic thinking, Chinese are keener on the NBA than Americans. Unless the world cup (soccer) or Olympics is on, it's the only spectator sport worth speaking of. And Chinese love brand-name goods, and sports memorabilia, though many are forged.
Plus, he's a good player.
Hmm... I looked into his stats because I don't pay much attention to the Knicks. At any rate I think Jeremy Lin is definitely going to have a good deal of trouble succeeding long term. There are a number of concerns there, but by far the biggest is TOs. In each game he's played, he has had the most TOs of any player. You can coach that away but one of two things will happen, his FGs will go up and his ASSTs will go d…
In response to the turnovers, I want to mention that there are a couple reasons for that. The first is that he's playing PG and has to handle the ball a lot more than anyone else on the team right now. Combined with his minutes, that's generally going to give you more TO's just because of the amount of time with the ball and the probability of a player of his skill level losing it (although this point doesn't account…
Is there any evidence of turnover concern from his time at Harvard?
Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight ga…
That's insane. It's been suggested he was passed over because he's of Chinese decent. You'd think the teams would be climbing over themselves to get a good player with a Chinese name, because that's a way to get tens (or hundreds) of millions of Chinese fans. He's not the next Yao (since he's American born, for starters), but he'd still be worth a lot purely for the fans he'd draw. While "hundreds of millions" is oft…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
NBA media and fans are much much more resistant to empirical stuff than baseball. I think it's because the appeal of the game is more about emotions and hype than baseball. There's this feeling that things can't be captured in the numbers, but what they use instead is so inferior for judging players. I mean the Knicks acquired Carmelo Anthony at the cost of all the efficient players on the team. All of the stats guys…
Baseball is easier to predict from statistics when compared to most other sports. Most plays in baseball occur in isolation (relatively). For example: pitcher vs. batter -- each pitch is essentially a new, repeatable experiment. In basketball, I would guess that there are very few repeatable experiments. (Different players, strategies, locations, etc). It is a much more fluid game and therefore determining an indicat…
The clock completely changes the approaches you have to take in analyzing any other sport.
I love Jeremy Lin as a player and I really hope he succeeds. However, it must be said: Four games does not a statistically significant sample make. Read the NBA Playbook breakdown of his game: http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/ In summary, he isn't good going left or shooting from distance. So far he hasn't played an elite defensive team. The true test will come if he can sustain his performance…