A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
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Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#2I'm involved in the startup scene for soccer "moneyball" metric development. If anyone has any interest, contact me.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#3Wouldn't it be more noteworthy if we weren't able to find one analyst who predicted Lin? With the number of amateur analysts, and the number of players, you'd think that its likely there's a web page somewhere plugging every prospect.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#4I'm involved in the startup scene for soccer "moneyball" metric development. If anyone has any interest, contact me.
I'm interested.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#5What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#6Noticed the article was written a year ago (May 13, 2010), and Lin went undrafted that year.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#7Wouldn't it be more noteworthy if we weren't able to find one analyst who predicted Lin? With the number of amateur analysts, and the number of players, you'd think that its likely there's a web page somewhere plugging every prospect.
Reminds me of that classic scam of sending out sports (or anything else) predictions to a huge mailing list, and basically AB testing in such a way that after a little time there are at least x% who think your success rate is incredible.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#8How is he calculating RSB40? I'm guessing its some sort of weighted average of rebounds, steals, and blocks but I can't find a solid definition.
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#9What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.
Not surprised that most experts(NBA & DI school scouts) don't embrace this because it is easier and safer to go with the typical archetype as opposed to raw stats. Its "human nature" safe in the sense most people will not question if you go with the established archetype. It also devalues the current process of scouting.
An apt quote from the movie Moneyball: "I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the first guy through the wall. It always gets bloody, always. It's the threat and not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people are holding the reins, have their hands on the switch. They will bet you're crazy. I mean, anybody who's not building a team right and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. They'll be sittin' on their ass on the sofa in October, watch the Boston Red Sox win the world series."
Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago
#10What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.
Not surprised that most experts(NBA & DI school scouts) don't embrace this because it is easier and safer to go with the typical archetype as opposed to raw stats. Its "human nature" safe in the sense most people will not question if you go with the established archetype. It also devalues the current process of scouting. An apt quote from the movie Moneyball: "I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the fi…
"Sometimes the convincing force is just time itself and the human toll it takes, Kuhn said, using a quote from Max Planck: "a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."[1]"