"Colossus, the Forbin Project" predicted it all.
Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
331–340 of 1001 posts
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#332Earlier quoted context omitted.
That statement seems like such science fiction that it's kind of baffling an AI expert said it. What does it even mean for the AI to be smarter than people? I certainly can't see a way for LLMs to generate "smarter" text than what's in their training data. And even the best case interactions I've seen online still rely on human intelligence to guide the AI to good outcomes instead of bad ones. Writing is a harder tas…
> I certainly can't see a way for LLMs to generate "smarter" text than what's in their training data. Their training data contains much more knowledge than any single human has ever had, though. If they had equivalent linguistic, understanding and reasoning abilities to a human, but with so much stored knowledge, and considering that they also win in processing speed and never get tired, that would already make them…
So much of this is going to hinge on what "smarter" means. My local library has heaps more knowledge than most individual people, but it'd be weird to call it "smarter" than a person.
And automation is generally cheaper and faster than human labor, but that's not a very compelling definition of "smarter" either.
But, as of right now, LLMs can't generate new knowledge or validate their own outputs. We'll need a pretty significant breakthrough for that to change, and breakthroughs are pretty unpredictable.
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#333Earlier quoted context omitted.
somebody has a no disparage
More like HR said, “Well, there is option A where you leave and are free to do what you wish. And then there is option B (points at bag of cash) where you pretend none of this ever happened…”
I assume Geoffrey Hinton has enough bags of cash for his lifetime and a few more on top of that. IDK why someone so well compensated and so well recognized would agree to limit themselves in exchange for a, relatively speaking, tiny bit more cash. That doesn't make the slightest bit of sense.
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
More like HR said, “Well, there is option A where you leave and are free to do what you wish. And then there is option B (points at bag of cash) where you pretend none of this ever happened…”
HR might as well say: "It doesn't matter if you take the bags of cash or not, we will do our best to destroy your life if you mess with us after you are gone. The bags of cash are a formality, but you might as well accept them because we have the power to crush you either way"
Google HR is going to crush Geoffrey Hinton? I feel like that would work out worse for Google than for him.
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#335“The idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people — a few people believed that,” said Hinton to the NYT. “But most people thought it was way off. And I thought it was way off. I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that.” Calculators are smarter then humans in calculating, what does he mean by that?
> Calculators are smarter then humans in calculating, what does he mean by that?
He means AGI.
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#336If you don't think anyone would be so dumb to connect AI to weapons... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loyal_wingman
Killer robots are not even news anymore
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebulletin.org/2021/05/was-a-f...
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#337We still don’t have Rosie the Robot. When it comes to learning and adapting to new environments, we don’t even have AI as smart as a mouse. LeCun is right, there is still a long way to go.
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#338Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Take the perspective of one of these things. You think 100 times faster than a person. That means that if it takes 30 seconds for a user to respond or to give you your next instruction, you are waiting 3000 seconds in your loop. For 50 minutes. ... in a purely digital environment. Think about building a house. Digging the foundation, pouring cement, building block walls, framing, sheathing, weatherproofing, insulat…
Today, the real world is so intertwined with the digital world that it may as well be one thing. If an AI decided it wanted more power, and took over every computer on the planet with it's exceptional speed and intelligence (to be clear, I know this isn't possible today, but someday), we could do nothing to stop it, we'd have to just unplug and reset ALL of our technology, literally replacing any digital storage with…
I mean, malware and ransomware is already a thing. A hospital already needs to have a plan for how to turn off all of its computers and reset everything and restore from off backups, because that's a thing that happens to hospitals today.
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#339When channelling Oppenheimer, it is worth remembering that von Neumann quipped: "Some people profess guilt to claim credit for sin."
I reached for von Braun, channeled by Tom Lehrer: "Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down? That's not my department!"
Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead
#340We are barely scraping the surface when it comes to understanding the future dangers of AI. Geoffrey Hinton is uniquely positioned to point out where the dangers are, and from what I've gleaned from interviews one of his main concerns atm is the use of AI in the military: fully autonomous military robots might not be possible to curtail. The tried and tested method is international agreements. The current focus on ar…
Leading theory is that COVID was made in a lab. Not sure what to fear more AI robots, or AI engineered viruses.