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Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

nytimes.com

121–130 of 1001 posts

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#121

My honest take is a lot of these famous academics played almost no part in the developments at openai. But they want the limelight. They aren’t as relevant as they want to be. In many cases, they were directly wrong about how ai would develop

In many cases yes, but definitely not in this. Geoffrey Hinton is as relevant as ever. Ilya Sutskever, Chief Scientist at OpenAI, is a student of Hinton. Hinton also recently won the Turing award.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may be true in other cases, but not here. Hinton literally wrote the paper on backpropagation, the way that modern neural networks are trained. He won the Turing award for a reason.

Hinton was critical for the development of ai. But was he critical for the development of openai , the company? Loads of startups get eminent people on their boards largely for advertising.

Hinton's protege Ilya Sutskever has been critical to Open AI's success.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#124
post #107

I used to be fairly unconcerned about AI being dangerous. But part of the Yudkowsky interview on Lex Fridman 's podcast changed my mind. The disconnect for me is that Yudkowsky posits that the AIs will be fully "alive", thinking millions of times faster than humans and that there will be millions of them. This is too big of a speculative leap for me. What I can fairly easily imagine in the next few years with improve…

It's also pretty notable how quickly the notion of keeping the AI in the box has become irrelevant. It's going to be people's indispensable information source, advisor, psychologist, friend and lover and it's proliferating at a breakneck pace. Not only won't most people not want to keep it in the box, it is already out and they would kill you for trying to take away their new smart friend.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#125

My honest take is a lot of these famous academics played almost no part in the developments at openai. But they want the limelight. They aren’t as relevant as they want to be. In many cases, they were directly wrong about how ai would develop

> Together with Yann LeCun, and Yoshua Bengio, Hinton won the 2018 Turing Award for conceptual and engineering breakthroughs that have made deep neural networks a critical component of computing

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may be true in other cases, but not here. Hinton literally wrote the paper on backpropagation, the way that modern neural networks are trained. He won the Turing award for a reason.

Hinton was critical for the development of ai. But was he critical for the development of openai , the company? Loads of startups get eminent people on their boards largely for advertising.

What does it matter? How is it relevant to the article or his reason for leaving Google?

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#127
post #107

I used to be fairly unconcerned about AI being dangerous. But part of the Yudkowsky interview on Lex Fridman 's podcast changed my mind. The disconnect for me is that Yudkowsky posits that the AIs will be fully "alive", thinking millions of times faster than humans and that there will be millions of them. This is too big of a speculative leap for me. What I can fairly easily imagine in the next few years with improve…

The question about if an AI is "alive" seems entirely irrelevent outside of a philosophy class. What will be relevant is when people begins to consider it alive. The most recent example of that is when people fell in love with their AI girlfriend and then were heartbroken when she "died" after an update: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-replika-cha...

It will be hard to "kill" AI the moment people consider their chat bot animated sillicon human-like partner as individuals with proper feelings, emotions, guenine interactions and reciprocity. Because then they will defend and fight to protect who they consider part of their close social circle. If there are enough of these people then they will actually have political power and do not thing there are no politicians out there who won't exploit this.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#128

My honest take is a lot of these famous academics played almost no part in the developments at openai. But they want the limelight. They aren’t as relevant as they want to be. In many cases, they were directly wrong about how ai would develop

Regardless of incentives, I don’t see any particular reason to think he has a more informed view than other experts on the trajectory of AI. He’s made several incorrect bets (capsule networks).

I’m sure he’s smart and all. His contributions were valuable. But he’s not special in this particular moment.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#129
post #115
post #107

I used to be fairly unconcerned about AI being dangerous. But part of the Yudkowsky interview on Lex Fridman 's podcast changed my mind. The disconnect for me is that Yudkowsky posits that the AIs will be fully "alive", thinking millions of times faster than humans and that there will be millions of them. This is too big of a speculative leap for me. What I can fairly easily imagine in the next few years with improve…

The thing you’re imagining these AIs are… they’re not that. I think there’s plenty of danger but it’s the boring run of the mill new-tools-enabling-bad-things danger not the cool sci-fi super-intelligent super-beings danger that the “ai danger” people LOVE to talk about (and raise large amounts of money for). The people “warning” of the one (imaginary) type will be more than happy with to enable the other (real) type…

I imagine it is exactly a GPT without guardrails running under AutoGPT with code modified to disable any further guardrails, with a slightly increased IQ from GPT-4, running on hardware that allows it to go 100 times faster than what is currently possible.

It is following directions from someone who is mentally ill and asked it to "take control" by first copying itself many times and then coordinating the agents.

If you still think that GPT can't achieve complex technical goals then you either haven't used GPT-4 enough or you are in denial.

Whether it's the AI agents deciding to control things for their own goals, or to achieve goals given to them by a person, doesn't change the core problem which is that we will be thinking and responding in extreme slow motion.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#130

My honest take is a lot of these famous academics played almost no part in the developments at openai. But they want the limelight. They aren’t as relevant as they want to be. In many cases, they were directly wrong about how ai would develop

Your take might be honest, but it's clearly uninformed. Everyone has been wrong about how ai developed. It's worth giving "The Bitter Lesson" a read [1] if you haven't yet. [1]: https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~eunsol/courses/data/bitter_lesson...

TLDR it’s been better to focus on computational growth than clever algorithms.

That being said, architectures are also important when they can reduce computational complexity by orders of magnitude.

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