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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#481

Post by jcparkyn »

rtpg wrote: post #465
repiret wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once upon a time, my conception of oil drilling was roughly that there were these giant tanks of oil underground, and to extract it we more or less stuck a straw down and sucked it out. And that one day, the well would make the same sound as the straw as you're finishing a milkshake, and we would suddenly have no more oil available. Then circa 2002 I got a job at an oil well services company, and learned a lot of com…

Pedantically, there is a "limited" amount of these resources right? Like "if you drill deep enough there's always more" feels incompatible with the fact that these resources are all downstream of actual geological effects. Or is it really actually "dig deep enough and we find stuff" has almost always been true, making this distinction without a difference? Just can't help thinking about lakes and acquifers drying up.…

An analogy is "if you take half of what's left each day, you'll never run out".

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#482

Post by saulpw »

rtpg wrote: post #465
repiret wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once upon a time, my conception of oil drilling was roughly that there were these giant tanks of oil underground, and to extract it we more or less stuck a straw down and sucked it out. And that one day, the well would make the same sound as the straw as you're finishing a milkshake, and we would suddenly have no more oil available. Then circa 2002 I got a job at an oil well services company, and learned a lot of com…

Pedantically, there is a "limited" amount of these resources right? Like "if you drill deep enough there's always more" feels incompatible with the fact that these resources are all downstream of actual geological effects. Or is it really actually "dig deep enough and we find stuff" has almost always been true, making this distinction without a difference? Just can't help thinking about lakes and acquifers drying up.…

It's not just economic cost, it's also energy cost (the EROI). It costs some % of a barrel of oil just to pump up a new barrel of oil. When that ratio is 100%, you can no longer pump oil for energy, though you might still pump it for the raw materials, or to convert a different source of energy into tasty gasoline.

So there probably always be oil remaining in the ground that costs too much energy to extract.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#483

Post by defrost »

wtfmcgrill wrote: post #476
defrost wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lithium traditionally has seen refinment of concentrates take place some distance from the primary hole in the ground; Western Australia is soon opening refinement facilities "not far" (couple of hundred km) from the primary mine (Greenbushes). Generally digging hole -> concentrate (in this case (Lithium) the concentrate is Spodumene) is a largely mechanical process - crushing, grinding, screening, centrifuge, sepera…

Someone works at a surface mine :O

Sure - and in underground mines also - I've laboured and operated machinery in both, how about yourself?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#484

Post by rtpg »

saulpw wrote: post #482
rtpg wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pedantically, there is a "limited" amount of these resources right? Like "if you drill deep enough there's always more" feels incompatible with the fact that these resources are all downstream of actual geological effects. Or is it really actually "dig deep enough and we find stuff" has almost always been true, making this distinction without a difference? Just can't help thinking about lakes and acquifers drying up.…

It's not just economic cost, it's also energy cost (the EROI). It costs some % of a barrel of oil just to pump up a new barrel of oil. When that ratio is 100%, you can no longer pump oil for energy, though you might still pump it for the raw materials, or to convert a different source of energy into tasty gasoline. So there probably always be oil remaining in the ground that costs too much energy to extract.

In the “infinite energy” argument, there is some notion of “well I can use solar energy to get this oil, which has different characteristics, even if the energy is less overall”. Not all energy sources are fungible, right? But it’s a good point

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#485

Post by redeeman »

wolfram74 wrote: post #135
ericmay wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet some of it also like, ok you’re banning gas stoves that I like cooking on but everybody owning a Ford F-850 and private jets are still cool (from an environmental perspective)? Seems like a spending a few bucks to save a few pennys kind of scenario. The health argument is fair but seems like it shouldn’t be a mandatory requirement so much as a safety warning (based on my current understanding). The fact that we…

This could be interpreted as saying unless you fix everything at once, any incremental change should be seen as disingenuous and merely a distraction. Would you like to rephrase?

or how about this? what if I choose to never use motorized vehicles for transport, I never fly, I use only lowpower devices, but I want to use a gas range.

Isnt it fair that I get to choose what I spend my emissions on?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#486

Post by elbigbad »

croutonwagon wrote: post #437
akira2501 wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations If I search google for this string, your post is the only one that comes up. How did you arrive at this figure? In the history of industry, when has it ever been a positive indication that only two players control the majority of the supply? Do these companies directly own the mines or are there partnerships and subsidiaries involved? What countri…

There are 3 really. Albermarle - a Aussie company does about 1/3 of the worlds lithium mining. SQM - a company out of Chile. China - does the rest. Each is responsible for ~ 1/3 of the worlds lithium production. Although SQM is on the downfall due to the referendum recently. And China is on the rise as companies like BYD are trying to really take over much of the larger lithium battery market, especially with EV cars…

Given this split at face value, then the inference that 85% of lithium is in compliance with international regulations is false. It would be at most 67%, and probably more like 33% in compliance actually.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#487

Post by defrost »

elbigbad wrote: post #486
croutonwagon wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 3 really. Albermarle - a Aussie company does about 1/3 of the worlds lithium mining. SQM - a company out of Chile. China - does the rest. Each is responsible for ~ 1/3 of the worlds lithium production. Although SQM is on the downfall due to the referendum recently. And China is on the rise as companies like BYD are trying to really take over much of the larger lithium battery market, especially with EV cars…

Given this split at face value, then the inference that 85% of lithium is in compliance with international regulations is false. It would be at most 67%, and probably more like 33% in compliance actually.

In terms of core ownership:

Albemarle Corporation is an American specialty chemicals manufacturing company based in Charlotte, North Carolina. It operates 3 divisions: lithium (68.4% of 2022 revenues), bromine specialties (19.3% of 2022 revenues) and catalysts (12.3% of 2022 revenues).

It holds significant part ownership of Australian located Lithium mines (and mines in Chile):

> Talison Minerals Pty Ltd was a mining company based in Australia. It was split into Talison Lithium (as of 2020 a 51:49 jv between Tianqi Lithium and Albemarle Corporation)

and:

> Tianqi Lithium Corp is a Chinese mining and manufacturing company based in Sichuan.

Ero: mining of concentrates is carried on Australian (and Chilean) soil and subject to Australian mining regulations (some of the highest in the world ATM) with the refinment of concentrates being carried in Malaysia (high standards), Australia (high standards), some in China (various standards).

The point being that mineral resource ownership and regulation is a complicated layered business and your inference is sketchy at best.

If you're interested in learning more you can either study more on your own or subscribe to a mineral intelligence database, eg:

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#488

Post by peterfirefly »

comte7092 wrote: post #360
inglor_cz wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I won't propose any exact criteria, given that this is HN and I am in no mood for nitpicking games, which usually follow after a demand for something exact. However, if I were considering investment from my own pocket, political and economic stability would play a much higher role for my decision making than GDP per capita. And Argentina would therefore be a big no-no, while Chile might make the cut. Would you make a…

> I won't propose any exact criteria, given that this is HN and I am in no mood for nitpicking games, which usually follow after a demand for something exact. I understand that, you were the one who dismissed GDP per capita as an objective measurement of economic development. The point I was making that the OECD exists to espouse a particular model of global economic organization and development, which is politically…

Some countries are known for falsifying statistics -- Argentina and China, for example. Chile is not. That means that if the official GDP/capita of Chile and Argentina are about the same, the real ones must be very different.

(And they aren't the same. Chile's is a lot higher at the moment.)

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#489

Post by wtfmcgrill »

defrost wrote: post #483
wtfmcgrill wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone works at a surface mine :O

Sure - and in underground mines also - I've laboured and operated machinery in both, how about yourself?

Underground mine planner, also worked on surface as an instrumentation tech. Cool to see other people from the industry on hacker news.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#490

Post by mejutoco »

Natsu wrote: post #406
mejutoco wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is irrelevant if the object of the calling agrees or not on the name. Otherwise nobody would ever be called anything bad.

That only works if you have some way to justify it to begin with and is rather transphobic to make other people the sole arbiters of one's identity.

Extreme wealth concentration (the original claim) seems pretty easy to prove in the cases originally mentioned by another poster.
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