Why are lithium prices collapsing? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#431

Post by ratboy666 » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 10:05 PM UTC

greedo wrote: post #430

ratboy666 wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USSR did call itself democratic. In a sense, since it was central control for all. The USA did NOT call itself democratic -- the preferred term up to the '70s was "constitutional republic". To avoid the flattening that "democracy" was perceived to produce. The argument is that democracy ALWAYS leads to tyranny and collapse. To quote "Both are anti-democratic". Which I don't understand. Is your claim that both sys…

Democracy is inherent and implicit in a republic. And I think you're mistaken about "constitutional republic." That term really wasn't used much, though representative democracy and "democratic republic" were terms that were used more frequently. The entire argument about the US not having a democracy but a republic really stems (in modern times) from the John Birch Society.

You could well be right (I am not American). I do recall discussing the GDR with some USA people... a "democratic republic". Was told, back then, that the term had been co-opted. But then, I don't know much about the John Birch Society.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#432

Post by mharig » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 10:32 PM UTC

alex_duf wrote: post #415

mharig wrote: post #183

What the article does not mention: in June a new chinese emission standard for vehicles, that can hardly be met by combustion engines, will hit. That may drive up the Lithium demand. And in 23Q4 or 24Q1 CATL will sell its 500 Wh/kg batteries. Although I couldn't find much about the chemistry of the new cells, that may cut the Lithium demand in half. But not very fast, I guess. (All dates/statements IIRC.)

Assuming the denser batteries have the same amount of lithium per kg, I don't see how we'll see a halving of lithium demand. That would only be possible under the incorrect assumption that battery demand is static. That's already not true with current technology as EVs are gaining market shares rapidly, but also the new technology will be opening new usages, so it will opening new markets, further driving the demand.…

Yes, it may cut the Lithium demand in half, if the demand does not change (much), and that is not likely. Sorry for the not so well formulated statement. I meant that that may lower the inclination of the curve of Lithium demand significantly.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#433

Post by CyberDildonics » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 10:34 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #416

CyberDildonics wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what? You already have electricity. If you don't have a gas line to your house, you aren't going to get one for a gas stove. Again, gas stoves are secondary to having gas in the first place, focusing on them is nonsense whether someone wants gas or not.

You said "gas stoves are easiest to replace" when in fact if that is what you have, replacing it with anything but another gas stove is difficut (or at least, more expensive)

Replacing a gas stove with an electric stove is much easier and less expensive in the long run than replacing water heaters and furnaces with electric versions.

Also this isn't about replacing a working stove in an existing building it's about substituting electric versions for gas versions if there are no gas lines, so I think you missed the entire context of the thread.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#434

Post by stjohnswarts » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 10:46 PM UTC

elif wrote: post #109

Because I see so much "conflict metals" discussion when lithium is discussed, I would like to contribute that less than 3% of global lithium production takes place on small artisanal mines, in which place human rights abuse may occur. Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations with large scale mines complying with multiple international regulation requirements.

You should support your claim of 85% with a valid link.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#435

Post by stjohnswarts » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 10:47 PM UTC

api wrote: post #111

The space is saturated with anti-EV FUD.

What space is that? The only place I see anti EV fud is right wing nut sites like fox news.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#436

Post by phatfish » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 11:00 PM UTC

kibwen wrote: post #160

hyperbovine wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For serious chefs, gas ranges remain far superior to their electric counterparts. I’ll be the first in line to buy an induction cooktop that performs as well as a high end gas range, but we’re not there yet.

My serious chef friends (one professional, one amateur) swear by their induction stoves. Their expensive high-end gas ranges are gathering dust. Once you've tried induction, going back to gas feels absolutely primitive.

Induction is great for instances where you can just leave a flat bottomed pan to do its thing. It is also nice in smaller kitchens where the efficiency keeps the heat going to the pan rather than the air.

But they do not work well (or at all) when a pad is moved around a lot, or it has a rounded bottom like a Wok or Karahi. At least the ones ive used don't. You are also reliant on the designers to give enough heat levels to actually cook properly and to provide a generally usable device that is fit for purpose. None of these things are an issue with even the cheapest gas stoves.

Having a both would be perfect. Just one or two gas burners for frying would be fine.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#437

Post by croutonwagon » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 11:04 PM UTC

akira2501 wrote: post #327

elif wrote: post #109

Because I see so much "conflict metals" discussion when lithium is discussed, I would like to contribute that less than 3% of global lithium production takes place on small artisanal mines, in which place human rights abuse may occur. Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations with large scale mines complying with multiple international regulation requirements.

> Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations If I search google for this string, your post is the only one that comes up. How did you arrive at this figure? In the history of industry, when has it ever been a positive indication that only two players control the majority of the supply? Do these companies directly own the mines or are there partnerships and subsidiaries involved? What countri…

There are 3 really.

Albermarle - a Aussie company does about 1/3 of the worlds lithium mining.

SQM - a company out of Chile.

China - does the rest.

Each is responsible for ~ 1/3 of the worlds lithium production. Although SQM is on the downfall due to the referendum recently. And China is on the rise as companies like BYD are trying to really take over much of the larger lithium battery market, especially with EV cars but even laptops etc.

Most of this came from my own research for investment reasons.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#438

Post by phatfish » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 11:21 PM UTC

oblio wrote: post #336

oceanplexian wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Natural gas infrastructure is expensive, dangerous and unnecessary. It’s been used and operated safely for hundreds of years in cities on the East Coast. The idea that it’s dangerous is simply FUD to scare people into spending $1000 on a future piece of e-waste to cook their food.

Do you mean induction stoves are e-waste? Why? They should be perfectly durable, no moving parts, simple operating principle. They aren't even super expensive and their price is going down.

Far more things that can go wrong with them though (at least compared to a standard gas stove). "Repairability" for electronics is considered a competitive disadvantage where companies want to force you to buy a whole new device instead of fixing the blown capacitor (or whatever the issue is).

Although the right to repair movement seems to be making some headway recently, so maybe all is not lost. Touch screens (with no alternative), and subscription service shoehorns need the same treatment, ban them.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#439

Post by specialist » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 11:39 PM UTC

thephyber wrote: post #402

Natsu wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the USSR would object to being called capitalist, since they were one of the major Communist revolutions until their economic collapse. And in this vein, we shouldn't forget Mao's "four pests campaign" in China under Mao which caused mass starvation by killing sparrows which had been eating insects, leaving them with a literal plague of locusts. Mao would probably have murdered anyone who called him a capital…

Your parent didn’t call the USSR “capitalism”, they called it “private capitalism”. I’ve never heard that term before so I’m guessing it was ad hoc. I’m guessing the public capitalism / private capitalism has to do with where the ownership of property, concentration of human capital is, and there the market making prices are found. In that sense, the public/private dichotomy mostly works. Sure, Communists argue there…

Ownership, correct. Who gets to the keep the surplus (profits).

Tragically, I biffed. USSR is public (as in the state is the owner) and USA is private (as in you and me).

I wish I could remember where I heard this taxonomy. James C Scott, Richard Wolfe, other? Sorry.

A quick search suggests "USSR is state capitalism" was one of Trotsky's (many) criticisms of the USSR. Wage labor, exploitation, yadda, yadda.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#440

Post by specialist » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 11:49 PM UTC

ratboy666 wrote: post #426

specialist wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and: One view is private vs public capitalism. USSR vs USA, respectively. Extreme wealth concentration at the expense of everyone else. Both are anti-democratic.

The USSR did call itself democratic. In a sense, since it was central control for all. The USA did NOT call itself democratic -- the preferred term up to the '70s was "constitutional republic". To avoid the flattening that "democracy" was perceived to produce. The argument is that democracy ALWAYS leads to tyranny and collapse. To quote "Both are anti-democratic". Which I don't understand. Is your claim that both sys…

> Is your claim that both systems led to extreme wealth concentration?

Yes.

> The argument is that democracy ALWAYS leads to tyranny and collapse.

Rather than Plato's mob rule criticism, I'm using the more contemporary capitalism-vs-democracy (winner-takes-all) food fight.

The tension in USA, at least, has always been wealth vs democracy. The "liberal" in the traditional "liberal democracy" was a reference to our economic system of free enterprise. The aspiration was to balance winner-takes-all with will-of-the-people. Basically the formulation of modern Nordic "democratic socialism".