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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

internationalbanker.com

351–360 of 524 posts

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#351
post #14
post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

Speculation & gambaling is just second order supply & demand.

Speculation and gambling is just complicated casting lots.

Predatory gambling where the participant can only win good feelings and lose money, is the immoral, addictive nightmare nobody wants. When talking about regular joes anyway. Be honest enough to sell good feelings straight.

I can't comment on the select finance bros who have manipulated the rules towards a specified outcome. Not really casting lots anymore at that point.

If it gets too corrupt all bets will be off, and that will hurt everyone who needs short term liquidity and to take speculative moon shots.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#352
post #300
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to share my own take, which is that one of the clearest, bluest skies I've ever seen was over North Korea. Because they sucked at doing "industry" compared to the South Koreans. In the 90s in South Korea, the rivers ran black and every corner you turned had its own putrid chemical smell from whatever fly-by-night entrepraneur had found a way to make a buck there. But that's an an…

Right, but in NK you starved to death at the governments whim as they had little to no ability to feed themselves. These conversations are barely worth having unless you're willing to go into long chains of explaining the complexity behind the situations.

Sure, but if you stay on topic I'm just saying there isn't a clean 1:1 correlation between political ideology and environmental harm.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting to see that people still believe there is some type of fair price discovery when things like dark pools, market maker exemptions, naked shorting, tokenized securities, trillions in derrivative bets (hello 2008), spoofing (JP Morgan getting fined 1 billion after making 10 billion in profit in gold price spoofing) and so on and so forth exist. Speculation and gambling about what future prices will be a…

"The secret of success in business is to know something no one else knows." —Aristotle Onassis How do you spell "insider trading?"

How do you spell "research and development".

We aren't rushing to make nuclear fusion because we have insufficient electricity... and you can't replace what the scientists know with another coal plant.

Global survelliance, inifinte database records and instant comms has really destroyed the potential to keep and develop real secrets. It's going to hurt (badly) in the long run.

So insider trading for as long as GCHQ/CIA/NSA refuses to rat people out....

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO there is a fault in this way of reasoning, please let me explain. People who are very visible, tend to: - Have more impact about what they say, because they reach a big population group and some people identify with their reasoning. (lets call it the elon effect) - Have a lot more money than average. Following your reasoning, what these wealthy people say would be almost always be the wrong thing to do, since th…

I'm not saying that they lose their right to an opinion because they are not paragons of virtue. I'm saying that these wealthy people make no attempt at all to mitigate their environmental impact while telling you to essentially pay off their carbon bill. Elon Musk is not alone in taking his private jet on 10-30 minute flights for trips that could easily have been done in a car. Bill Gates has a gigantic unmitigated…

Thanks for clarifying how you see it. I'm thinking about the documentary 'an inconvenient truth' of last century. If people/politicians would have listened and gave it a serious thought and started to act upon that, in stead of saying 'you consume a lot of energy, so don't tell us what to do', I think we would be better off, the greener technology would have taken off say, 30 years earlier.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#355
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I bet some of it also like, ok you’re banning gas stoves that I like cooking on but everybody owning a Ford F-850 and private jets are still cool (from an environmental perspective)? Seems like a spending a few bucks to save a few pennys kind of scenario. The health argument is fair but seems like it shouldn’t be a mandatory requirement so much as a safety warning (based on my current understanding). The fact that we…

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#356
post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

Your two premises don’t necessarily relate to each other. I believe both:

- journalists attribute price changes to whatever story they can find. Sort of like how every day there’s a story of why the Dow moved by a fraction of a percent.

- price moves are almost entirely supply and demand. Sure, speculation can change price in the near term, but considering the size of these commodity markets, you’d have to believe an absolutely enormous amount of capital is at play in speculation.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#357
post #109

Because I see so much "conflict metals" discussion when lithium is discussed, I would like to contribute that less than 3% of global lithium production takes place on small artisanal mines, in which place human rights abuse may occur. Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations with large scale mines complying with multiple international regulation requirements.

> Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations If I search google for this string, your post is the only one that comes up. How did you arrive at this figure? In the history of industry, when has it ever been a positive indication that only two players control the majority of the supply? Do these companies directly own the mines or are there partnerships and subsidiaries involved? What countri…

Google has noticeably deteriorated in recent weeks. Does anyone have insight into that? Like more or too much gpt? The first link here is an article from 2021:

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Over+85%25+of+lithium+is+produced+...

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This could be interpreted as saying unless you fix everything at once, any incremental change should be seen as disingenuous and merely a distraction. Would you like to rephrase?

I'm not the OP but I share this attitude. The argument is that it is hypocritical to heat your 50-room house using hydrocarbons and fly around in a private jet while telling other people to cut their CO2 usage. If you aren't willing to sacrifice for your cause, why should other people sacrifice anything for it?

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You might expect that if you believe in the law of supply and demand, but as we were discussing, that is not how prices are actually formed, and anyone betting based on observed supply and demand (to the extent that it is actually possible to observe them) will be beat in general by others who are betting based on current speculation, which is how prices are actually formed. But we do see prices approach optimal. Y…

> But we do see prices approach optimal. Where do you see that? What does it even mean, how can you objectively tell what is the optimal price for a good or service, so that you can later say that the market converged to it? For example, is 1000$ the optimal price for an iPhone? Or is it simply the price Apple chose? If they sold it for 500$, would they make more or less money? How do you know? > And clearly markets…

> Also, why restrict this discussion to commodities?

Because they’re generally pretty fungible, and have a larger number of sellers and buyers involved in the market, hence their markets are more likely to behave like an ideal market. The same does not apply to housing, or services.

> Where do you see that? What does it even mean, how can you objectively tell what is the optimal price for a good or service, so that you can later say that the market converged to it?

For commodities, I would point to the reasonable price stability that exists. As evidenced by the fact that basic goods don’t frequently suffer from repeated shortages or gluts of supply. Strongly indicating that the price is both high enough to incentivise production, and stable/low enough to allow for relatively low risk long term investment in production, because continuous long term demand is expected.

> For example, is 1000$ the optimal price for an iPhone? Or is it simply the price Apple chose? If they sold it for 500$, would they make more or less money? How do you know?

These is nothing about the iPhone market that suggests it’s anything close to an ideal market (for one Apple have a monopoly on iPhone sales), so I don’t know why you would expect it to behave like an ideal market.

> The price of real-estate is often determined to a large extent by the price of borrowing, and that is quite explicitly set by banks and the central bank based on nothing related to supply and demand. Services are even more complex, with huge variations in price based on entirely subjective factors.

What’s your point? Of course a law describing how ideal markets work doesn’t correctly describe markets well know for being extremely distorted and non-ideal. Next you’re going to tell me Newtons laws of motions are all useless because they can’t help you model the behaviour of objects travelling at relativistic speeds.

You seem to be struggling with the idea that a model doesn’t need to be perfect, or applicable to every real world scenario, to be useful. All models have their limits, that no surprise to anyone. That doesn’t make them useless, it just means you need to be aware of limitations, and adjust expectations appropriately.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those were simply easy examples, there are plenty of non oecd countries that have higher levels of wealth than Chile. > GDP per capita is a very narrow indicator that does not come close to telling enough about the economic condition of a country. In what was us GDP per capita deficient, and what criteria would you propose exactly?

I won't propose any exact criteria, given that this is HN and I am in no mood for nitpicking games, which usually follow after a demand for something exact. However, if I were considering investment from my own pocket, political and economic stability would play a much higher role for my decision making than GDP per capita. And Argentina would therefore be a big no-no, while Chile might make the cut. Would you make a…

> I won't propose any exact criteria, given that this is HN and I am in no mood for nitpicking games, which usually follow after a demand for something exact.

I understand that, you were the one who dismissed GDP per capita as an objective measurement of economic development.

The point I was making that the OECD exists to espouse a particular model of global economic organization and development, which is politically informed.

As to your question about investment, what might be beneficial to me as an investor isn’t necessarily the same as what is beneficial to a citizen of a particular country.

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