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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#171

Post by JumpCrisscross »

machina_ex_deus wrote: post #88
Rufbdbskrufb473 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just listed a bunch scary sounding financial buzz words, but I doubt that a thorough analysis of them would support your conclusion. In fact, many have the opposite effect and result in more efficient price discovery. Take naked shorting for example. Without shorting, it would be far more difficult for an equity research firm to be incentivized to look into fraudulent stocks, as was widespread with Chinese compan…

You don't understand what naked shorting is. Naked shorting is shorting without first borrowing from someone. Normal shorting is limited by the availability of stock to borrow (by the way, if stock holders wish, they can request from their broker that their stock won't be available for borrowing, potentially causing short squeeze), by the interest rates on borrowing the stock. Naked shorting skips it all. Some market…

> excuse given is that naked shorting allows for more liquidity, but given the other problems, I think it's bad

I assume you have a counterpoint to the decades of data the NYSE, SEC, Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and others around the world have collected that show naked shorting improves liquidity without FTDs negatively impacting price discovery while tamping volatility, evidence made particularly robust by the fact that naked shorting is permanently banned, and has been temporarily banned, in many markets, such as Australia, Switzerland and, for some stocks post crisis, in the United States? (See Wikipedia for a summary.) The whole affair reminds me of the lead up to the Onion Futures Act [1].

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#172

Post by simoncion »

kibwen wrote: post #153
simoncion wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons. Yeah, it's weird, right? Why _are_ people so invested in burning natgas and coal and other hydrocarbons for large-scale power generation when a plethora of proven near-zero-emissions alternatives exist? From a climate-change perspective, banning natgas cookstoves is a few pennies saved on like a thousand dollar expenditure. It's similar t…

Forget burning, even pumping gas to residences is itself a big source of emissions, because of how leaky the pipes are. Between two to seven percent of all gas put into the system is lost directly to the atmosphere, and it's a very potent greenhouse gas. One way or the other, it needs to go away. It's not performative, it's necessary for achieving long-term emissions goals, and it's low-hanging fruit.

> One way or the other, it needs to go away.

Sure, agreed.

> It's not performative...

Right now it very much is because, as you say:

> ...it's low-hanging fruit.

As I said:

> ...banning natgas cookstoves is a few pennies saved on like a thousand dollar expenditure.

and

> [Low-impact, high-visibility stuff like that is done because] it's way easier than making a real dent in the underlying problem

If you'll pardon the mixed metaphors: When it comes to environmental stuff, a lot of the time, the low-hanging fruit isn't worth picking because the high-hanging fruit is the thing that's the immediate wildfire hazard.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#174

Post by mharig »

RobotToaster wrote: post #100
quags wrote: post #76

Has there been a commodity that has spiked in price due to true lack of supply and non new supplies were found? From peak oil, to copper , lithium and rare earth minerals predictions of we will run out during a price shock always seem to turn into a price collapse.

Helium maybe?

Tritium, too.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Available-global-tritium...

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#175

Post by uoaei »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #148
wolfram74 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This could be interpreted as saying unless you fix everything at once, any incremental change should be seen as disingenuous and merely a distraction. Would you like to rephrase?

I'm not the OP but I share this attitude. The argument is that it is hypocritical to heat your 50-room house using hydrocarbons and fly around in a private jet while telling other people to cut their CO2 usage. If you aren't willing to sacrifice for your cause, why should other people sacrifice anything for it?

This is actually a well-studied effect in psychology. It's called social loafing: if someone sees another person violating some rule, they are much less likely to feel obligated to follow that same rule. Rules can be unspoken or written down, the effect is basically the same.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#176

Post by uoaei »

refurb wrote: post #169
anamexis wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would that be a reasonable assumption?

Wait, you're asking why it's reasonable to assume a corporation is NOT violating human rights in a situation where there is no evidence that they are? Because it's absurd to think otherwise? I mean, using OPs logic of "Because we all know international corporations never violate human rights?" you could say that about anything. If you're a teacher you're probably a child molester because "Because we all know teachers…

It's absurd to believe either side of that dichotomy, because you have no information on which to base any belief.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#177

Post by throwaway5959 »

CyberDildonics wrote: post #165
kibwen wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas stoves need to go away because getting rid of gas infrastructure in the long term will be a huge win, but the gas industry spends heavily on propaganda to convince people otherwise: https://youtube.com/watch?v=hX2aZUav-54

If gas infrastructure is the problem, why focus on gas stoves and not gas water heaters and furnaces?

Why not all three? Just stop using gas altogether. I pass enough of it myself, thanks.

Edit: why am I being downvoted? Is it not a legitimate question to ask why not go all the way with converting to electric when appliances exist for all three use cases? Do my farts stink too bad?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#178

Post by JumpCrisscross »

xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

> how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales

Mass media is mostly crap at price-move stories. It’s less manipulation than false correlation. (The writers are incentivised to write, not to write a particular story.) There is a lot of thought that goes into lithium pricing. Current price moves are mostly speculation about supply, given near-term demand can be pretty precisely measured given battery production in operation and breaking ground. (Battery supply limits EV production, which itself outstrips demand, so volatility in consumer demand is tamped at the extraction layer.) Recent debate is about potential supply from brine in China.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#179

Post by ericmay »

wolfram74 wrote: post #135
ericmay wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet some of it also like, ok you’re banning gas stoves that I like cooking on but everybody owning a Ford F-850 and private jets are still cool (from an environmental perspective)? Seems like a spending a few bucks to save a few pennys kind of scenario. The health argument is fair but seems like it shouldn’t be a mandatory requirement so much as a safety warning (based on my current understanding). The fact that we…

This could be interpreted as saying unless you fix everything at once, any incremental change should be seen as disingenuous and merely a distraction. Would you like to rephrase?

No, I would not like to rephrase.

This specific incremental change is at best a distraction and at worst very harmful. We can do many things at once, question is why aren’t we tackling any of the actual problems?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#180

Post by uoaei »

Reason077 wrote: post #163
nindalf wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have not seen any necessary gambling in my years in manufacturing. You need to manufacture a widget and it must cost no more than $5. You have a few inputs to your widget, some made with steel and some with plastic. If steel and plastic prices increase, your inputs cost more than $5 and you’re making a loss on every widget you sell. So you go to the futures market and take a bet that the input prices will increas…

In this example, the use of futures contracts isn't really gambling. Quite the opposite: it's insurance!

You can try to play word games all you want but they are faulty in a very transparent way. No one is falling for it.
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