Why are lithium prices collapsing? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#141

Post by broast » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:22 PM UTC

xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

You're definitely right that the news loves to write headlines after any daily price fluctuations and pretend they know the reason, when in reality it usually explains nothing and becomes irrelevant by tomorrow.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#142

Post by simoncion » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:23 PM UTC

aintgonnatakeit wrote: post #113

api wrote: post #111

The space is saturated with anti-EV FUD.

Same thing happens with the gas stove threads. I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons.

> I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons.

Yeah, it's weird, right? Why _are_ people so invested in burning natgas and coal and other hydrocarbons for large-scale power generation when a plethora of proven near-zero-emissions alternatives exist?

From a climate-change perspective, banning natgas cookstoves is a few pennies saved on like a thousand dollar expenditure. It's similar to the performative "charging for plastic takeaway bags" and "not bringing out table water" nonsense that California likes to do from time to time... it's way easier than making a real dent in the underlying problem, it inconveniences a ton of people (so they know you're doing something), and because "something" has been done, enough of those people don't bother finding out about and loudly and continually agitating for making a real dent in the underlying problem.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#143

Post by PinkRidingHood » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:24 PM UTC

tsimionescu wrote: post #48

avianlyric wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But that practically means they are based on speculation about possible future supply and demand, and we are more or less taking it on faith that that speculation is correlated to actual supply and demand. This statement almost seems tautological. Of course prices are based on speculation about possible supply and demand, nobody has a crystal ball that can tell them “actual” supply and demand. In a competitive and…

> Of course prices are based on speculation about possible supply and demand, nobody has a crystal ball that can tell them “actual” supply and demand. Exactly, no one has such a crystal ball. And this actually generally applies not just to future supply and demand, but even to the past: it's actually impossible to measure supply and demand across any significant industry, to check whether prices matched it or not. An…

The pundit's claims are part of the speculation. If you speculated that the pundit's words would matter, you'd short or sell out grain, making the pundit's words matter. Supply and demand are only sometimes good measures of people actually using or producing these products (and when they fail bubbles occur), but are always good measures of the spending of both people actually using the product, and the investors buying it in wanting to sell it.

In any case, as the investors buy the product they eventually have to sell it, meaning over the long run demand and supply are good measures of "actual" usage and production. You know this because there's never a bubble that doesn't collapse and return to equilibrium.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#144

Post by anamexis » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:24 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #131

throwawaaarrgh wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we all know international corporations never violate human rights?

That's kind of a ridiculous argument. Sure, international corporations violate human rights, but unless you provide proof these lithium corporations are, then we can just assume they aren't.

Why would that be a reasonable assumption?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#145

Post by CydeWeys » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:27 PM UTC

CyberDildonics wrote: post #136

aintgonnatakeit wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same thing happens with the gas stove threads. I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons.

Gas stoves and plastic straws are distractions, they don't matter either way.

Gas stoves matter as far as indoor air quality and giving people asthma/allergies goes.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#146

Post by kibwen » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:28 PM UTC

wffurr wrote: post #127

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what aspect of performance are they missing?

Two big use cases: 1) Wok cooking, can’t use a round bottomed wok easily or create “wok hei”. Though you can also do it with a blowtorch: https://www.seriouseats.com/hei-now-youre-a-wok-star-a-fiery... 2) Causing childhood asthma. Gotta employ all those healthcare workers somehow…

China is the world's largest adopter of induction cooktops. Wok cooking isn't a problem. You can even buy induction cooktops specifically shaped for woks. Can we please retire this silly talking point now?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#147

Post by PinkRidingHood » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:28 PM UTC

What's with the scrolling? Maybe they optimized it for phones but its unnatural on a phone too. And it was a design decision!

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#148

Post by pclmulqdq » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:29 PM UTC

wolfram74 wrote: post #135

ericmay wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet some of it also like, ok you’re banning gas stoves that I like cooking on but everybody owning a Ford F-850 and private jets are still cool (from an environmental perspective)? Seems like a spending a few bucks to save a few pennys kind of scenario. The health argument is fair but seems like it shouldn’t be a mandatory requirement so much as a safety warning (based on my current understanding). The fact that we…

This could be interpreted as saying unless you fix everything at once, any incremental change should be seen as disingenuous and merely a distraction. Would you like to rephrase?

I'm not the OP but I share this attitude. The argument is that it is hypocritical to heat your 50-room house using hydrocarbons and fly around in a private jet while telling other people to cut their CO2 usage. If you aren't willing to sacrifice for your cause, why should other people sacrifice anything for it?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#149

Post by azubinski » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:30 PM UTC

Quite possibly, it's all about simple arithmetic which has always been a bit of a challenge for the brave marketing.

Let's assume the data is correct and only three countries produce 119 thousand tons of lithium per year:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_p...

Let's assume "from the internet" estimate is at least somewhat correct, and the average EV battery contains 10kg of lithium (this is rounding up the more common 8kg estimate to make it easier to count).

The collapse in lithium prices could mean that the electric car market has been overvalued and that the actual production of electric cars is much lower than 12 million, because lithium batteries are not only used in cars.

Nothing, over time, prices will still begin to rise. Even though the technology and business of recycling lithium from used batteries will somehow develop.

And for sure, this decline will not affect the price of batteries in any way.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#150

Post by asplake » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 1:31 PM UTC

About the yellow flame, another explanation would be sodium from the salt. My daughter’s saline nebuliser does that to our cooker, even from the next room.