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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

internationalbanker.com

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#61

Post by newswasboring »

CogitoCogito wrote: post #54
newswasboring wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work in manufacturing, in the high end of the tech. Our products have perhaps the most complex supply chain. I have talked to the industry best about this. I have never once heard an expert cite speculation as helpful for there 5 year or 20 year plan. But I don't want to make an argument from personal incredulity, can you cite a source on how speculation helps long term planning? Not pop sci stuff, something concre…

> can you cite a source on how speculation helps long term planning Unless you lock in all commodity costs, how is long term planning even possible without speculation? If you plan to open a distribution center somewhere, the optimal location depends on e.g. fuel costs. You can’t do anything but speculate about the costs of those commodities. So I don’t even see the need to track down sources. Do you not see that you…

I see you didnt reciprocate the courtesy of not making an argument from personal incredulity. These things are complex af. When the people who optimize supply chains all day every day tell me that speculation market is more of an hindrance than help, I'm not going to take your random argument to be worth anything.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#62

Post by tuatoru »

Lithium Triangle[1]. "a region of the Andes that is rich in lithium reserves, encompassed by the borders of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile.[1] The lithium in the triangle is concentrated in various salt pans that exist along the Atacama Desert and neighboring arid areas, the largest areas including Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, Salar de Atacama in Chile, and Salar del Hombre Muerto in Argentina.

The area is thought to hold around 54% of the world's lithium reserves."

Well, not any more maybe. A large lithium deposit has been dis-covered in Iran as the internationalbanker article notes. (Unusal hyphenation of discovered intentional: it was uncovered, made more widely known, rather than found for the first time ever.) Now that it's in demand, no doubt there are many more deposits of lithium waiting for the limelight.

Wikipedia continues: "By one estimate Argentina could displace Chile as the second largest lithium producer by 2027.[3] Similarly, there are estimates the posits [sic] Argentina producing 16% of the World's lithium by 2030, instead of 6% as in 2021.[3] Low royalty payments when compared to Chile are cited by The Economist as a particular advantage.[3]"

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_Triangle

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#63

Post by CogitoCogito »

newswasboring wrote: post #61
CogitoCogito wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can you cite a source on how speculation helps long term planning Unless you lock in all commodity costs, how is long term planning even possible without speculation? If you plan to open a distribution center somewhere, the optimal location depends on e.g. fuel costs. You can’t do anything but speculate about the costs of those commodities. So I don’t even see the need to track down sources. Do you not see that you…

I see you didnt reciprocate the courtesy of not making an argument from personal incredulity. These things are complex af. When the people who optimize supply chains all day every day tell me that speculation market is more of an hindrance than help, I'm not going to take your random argument to be worth anything.

All your arguments are anecdote and opinion.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#64

Post by RandomLensman »

jpgvm wrote: post #55
yunohn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have massive buy/sell orders between finance bro speculators - how does that equate to real supply/demand for the underlying commodity?

There is a finite supply of the underlying, each sold future equates to agreed upon future deliveries. So in reality the number of contracts sold (not traded) does equate 1:1 with demand for the underlying. When that doesn't hold true you will end up with Failure To Deliver (FTD) which causes Very Bad Things™. Generally speaking though commodities markets aren't rigged in the way that people complain about in some ot…

Most future positions are closed out or rolled before delivery - so open interest can easily exceed demand for the underlying.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#65

Post by z3t4 »

xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

Monopoly and cartels has the most impact on prices. and the market can not work if there are few partisipants. also gatekeepers, those that stand in between producers and consumers can screw up the market if they have a large potion of the market.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#67

Post by euroderf »

tuatoru wrote: post #62

Lithium Triangle[1]. "a region of the Andes that is rich in lithium reserves, encompassed by the borders of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile.[1] The lithium in the triangle is concentrated in various salt pans that exist along the Atacama Desert and neighboring arid areas, the largest areas including Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, Salar de Atacama in Chile, and Salar del Hombre Muerto in Argentina. The area is thought to ho…

Purraps a bit like oil ? Reserves depend on prices ?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#69

Post by blablabla123 »

xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

Speculating/gambling is a huge factor in anything that can be traded. But commodities also rely on physical deliveries which have influenced prices directly on various occasions. Of course for commodities also the selling side has direct influence on prices. That can go so far that for oil deliveries the tab is opened/closed on convenient times. So understanding prices is significantly more difficult than e.g. for stocks. Also speaking about the news part, a lot of data on commodities isn't freely available so you need to buy it. Trading itself on those is highly restricted - and speculative - anyway.

> Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie electric car sales/lithium use is still increasing.

I'm quite surprised the article doesn't mention sodium batteries. Li-Ion batteries are notorious for thermal runaways, so CATL and Tesla already shifted to LiFePO batteries quite some time ago. I think everybody would be more than happy to ditch Lithium based batteries altogether.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#70

Post by newswasboring »

CogitoCogito wrote: post #63
newswasboring wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see you didnt reciprocate the courtesy of not making an argument from personal incredulity. These things are complex af. When the people who optimize supply chains all day every day tell me that speculation market is more of an hindrance than help, I'm not going to take your random argument to be worth anything.

All your arguments are anecdote and opinion.

What do you expect, you are one making a positive claim. That the speculation market is helpful.
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