He omits the only valid reason any non-speculator would own gold - it holds it's value through times of political turmoil - holds it's value over millenia rather than decades or centuries. A coup d'etat may result in seizure of private companies, rendering your stock worthless, but not touching the value of gold. It would be speculating to put all your assets into gold, but a small amount is like an insurance policy.…
The problem with gold in times of turmoil basically boils down to you saying "here's (insert weight) of gold that I'll use to pay for this", and the person you're dealing with saying "yeah, and I'm the Queen of England". Without some sort of neutral respected authority to assay and say "yup, it's gold", you just have shiny pebbles and/or dust. And when everything around you has collapsed, reliable access to a trusted…
Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
91–100 of 208 posts
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#92He's wrong. Stocks do not beat gold once inflation outpaces the rate of average market returns, which is exactly where we're at now. Gold is up 87 fold over 90 years or so. There is no way to capture that kind of return out of stocks, other than to buy one stock, Apple at the absolute bottom, or buy Dell the day it IPO'd or other similar freak scenarios, and then hold all the way through, and then sell at the absolut…
You talk like the price of gold has never gone down or been stagnant for decades at a time. How much of that 87 fold is due to the last decade?
Inflation has been substantial the past decade. Gold would have shielded you from it.
You buy gold for the protection it offers from the devaluation in the dollar (in this case), not because you think you're going to get rich from it.
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#93Buffett is great at picking stocks. The problem with his statement is that he is a professional stock investor but we mere mortals are not. We have our busy lives other than watching the market. For us, the correct strategy is to do balanced portfolio with 50/50 :: stock/bond, or some other ratio.
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#94That's because all of these asset classes are subject to 'animal spirits.' Stocks went through the tech bubble. At various times bond yields have been too low when judged against the real risk that you do not get your principal back in full. Bond yields are pretty darn low right now. Gold may seem invincible now and it may seem that the world is only going to continue falling apart and Helicopter Ben is only going to keep running the presses, but don't you remember a time when stocks did nothing but go up? Or when people thought that house prices would never go backward?
All of these asset classes are also subject to the 'invisible tax' of inflation. As the money supply increases, all currency is devalued and everything that's denominated purely in currency loses value as well.
To preserve and grow wealth, you must first beat inflation. Stack the assets up against each other on these merits and I think that's where his logic lies. Let's remove 'animal spirits' for now. Look at these asset classes dispassionately for what they represent. Ignore prices, what they've done in the past, where they are now.
Bonds are contracts for loaning currency. You as the lender demand repayment of your principal and interest payments concordant with the risks you take that the money does not come back to you. Most bonds as structured do not protect you from inflation unless your nominal payout is explicitly pegged in the contract (as with TIPS). You pay today's currency for a fixed amount of tomorrow's currency and if that currency is worth less (as it probably will be) you're out of luck.
Gold is a real good. It's a particularly nice real good in that it's malleable and somewhat plentiful but both difficult to destroy and difficult to make more of. Oh and it's shiny. Everybody agrees that gold is an excellent real good in that way. Those factors, particularly that it's difficult to make more of, protect you from inflation. The real value should stay the same so the price of gold increases as inflation brings currency down around it. Gold beats inflation for sure (except maybe for the bit of mining and new discoveries that get done).
Stocks represent ownership in companies. A company is a group of people operating capital assembled to provide a good or service to others in exchange for value commensurate to the good or service tendered. A good company can protect you when inflation attacks by raising the prices of its goods or services so that it receives the same value as it did before. The well-known example is a candy bar that costs a dollar today cost a nickel in the 1950s. A great company can grow over time, providing more goods and services to the world for more value. Ownership in a good company is an opportunity to both protect against and even beat inflation. That is the key and that is why over time it is a better idea to own stocks than gold. Here's something of a common-sense test: name a family fortune and you'll usually find a company behind it. Now name me a gold-hoarder in the Forbes 400.
Warren glosses over the bad here, that you could buy a stock representing ownership in a poorly managed or even fraudulent company. You could buy a chunk of fool's gold, but you wouldn't be a fool for long. People held onto Enron stock for ten years after Fastow started his shenanigans.
Certainly the bad or fraudulent companies detract from stock performance in the aggregate. But a major index does a pretty good job of protecting you against this precisely because of survivorship bias. A company does not become one of the top 500 largest in the US by being poorly run or providing no value to its customers. A few frauds make it but there's so much scrutiny at the top, they don't (or shouldn't) last long. The S&P 500 is a pretty good proxy for the creme de la creme of businesses and that's why it's such a successful measure. Owning it also offers you the opportunity to grow your wealth with the expanding real value of the economy, beyond the level of inflation.
Now if we turn back on the animal spirits, timing matters. Buffet knows this. He's one of the best market-timers out there. Buffett would not have written this article in 1999 even if the precepts were all the same because he knew that it was a bad time to buy stocks and he would get blamed for the people that misunderstood his advice. He wouldn't write this article in 2008 either because he knew then that bonds were actually a great deal (as he points out). He's publishing this article now (even though it's somewhat of a timeless truth) because he thinks stocks are pretty cheap and the alternatives are terrible.
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately it is worth noting that FDR instigated the greatest private wealth seizure in the history of the planet when he stole all of America's privately held gold with force. If you've got a government that is willing to plunder like that, there's no great way to keep your wealth safe except to get yourself and your wealth out of the country.
> stole all of America's privately held gold Except for the bit where he, y'know, paid for it at the then-prevailing rate. (Which was defined by law, since at that point the US dollar was still on the gold standard.)
Not that I'm a gold-bug, but, it was pretty rude.
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
In reality, the Dow is not at 13,000 today as we knew 13k to be back in 1998/99 during the huge stock market bubble. Inflation has eroded that nominal value by at least half. The Dow is more likely at 5,000 to 6,500 depending on what you believe real inflation has been over the past 14 years (not the Fed's bogus CPI numbers). Am I correct in interpreting this to mean that you believe that inflation has been 100% over…
By the 1980 CPI, inflation is running at closer to 9% right now. So yes, I'm saying inflation has been chugging at a brutal pace the past 12 years. When the CPI was that high back then, Volcker had to take extreme measures to tame inflation. When inflation was 3% to 4% in 1970/1971, Nixon installed price and wage controls. Now when it's much higher on our new CPI, we don't even bat an eyelash at the extreme inflation…
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#97Buffett is great at picking stocks. The problem with his statement is that he is a professional stock investor but we mere mortals are not. We have our busy lives other than watching the market. For us, the correct strategy is to do balanced portfolio with 50/50 :: stock/bond, or some other ratio.
Paying someone like him a fee to choose stocks for you seems like a much better strategy to me.
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#98Buffett is great at picking stocks. The problem with his statement is that he is a professional stock investor but we mere mortals are not. We have our busy lives other than watching the market. For us, the correct strategy is to do balanced portfolio with 50/50 :: stock/bond, or some other ratio.
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
Honestly (and regardless of the actual value of global warming) the projections have changed so much and are so impossible to nail down exactly that they might as well be read in tea leafs. And if we get draught, what do you think the farmers will do? irregate their fields.
For "changed" please substitute "have gotten more specific, more grim, and better corroborated." WRT irrigation, we lack enough water now on a global scale.
That's not true at all. If anything the last decade has shown the data and models are woefully inadequate for prediction.
Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
#100I know this is nothing new, but investing in yourself through education is far and away the best investment out there. Governments, thieves, natural disasters and who knows what else can seize or destroy your stocks, bonds, gold, and land, but they can never touch your knowledge and experience. Even if you loose all of your possessions, you can use what you know to reacquire them. If the goal is "preserve AND grow" wealth, educating yourself is the best investment.