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Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

finance.fortune.cnn.com

21–30 of 208 posts

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#21
post #6

He omits the only valid reason any non-speculator would own gold - it holds it's value through times of political turmoil - holds it's value over millenia rather than decades or centuries. A coup d'etat may result in seizure of private companies, rendering your stock worthless, but not touching the value of gold. It would be speculating to put all your assets into gold, but a small amount is like an insurance policy.…

... unless some breakthrough in nuclear physics leads to cheap synthesis of precious metals: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthesis_of_precious_metals

Gold would make a lovely material to construct a toilet.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#22
post #8
post #2

Buffet: "A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be." Buffet implicitly rejects global warming here, specifically the latest projections on drought: http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/01/another-terrifying-dro... and others.

Honestly (and regardless of the actual value of global warming) the projections have changed so much and are so impossible to nail down exactly that they might as well be read in tea leafs. And if we get draught, what do you think the farmers will do? irregate their fields.

For "changed" please substitute "have gotten more specific, more grim, and better corroborated."

WRT irrigation, we lack enough water now on a global scale.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#23
post #16

In the 90s everyone rushed the IT shares and then the dotcom bubble burst. In the first decade of our new millennium, real estate and all sorts of weird financial products somehow building on real estate were THE best way to invest money because nothing can happen, you have a house standing right there, right?? Then that bubble burst. Now, you'd think people would have learned by now but no... sure as hell now everyo…

> everyone rushes

Who is rushing to buy gold? I'd be surprised if more than 1% of households have meaningful gold exposure.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#24
post #9

He's wrong. Stocks do not beat gold once inflation outpaces the rate of average market returns, which is exactly where we're at now. Gold is up 87 fold over 90 years or so. There is no way to capture that kind of return out of stocks, other than to buy one stock, Apple at the absolute bottom, or buy Dell the day it IPO'd or other similar freak scenarios, and then hold all the way through, and then sell at the absolut…

Why are you being downvoted? Your comment is spot-on. Look at the market performance of 2011 and you will see why:

Stocks: +0.93% US Treasury Bonds (Long Term): +33% Gold: +10%

He's exactly right about Buffet. Buffet makes all his money because Berkshire Hathaway collects all of these insurance premiums and he can use the cash flow float to make a few extra points of interest (above inflation). Do this with enough $billions for long enough and you will own all of the money in the world.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#25

Same conclusion from a slightly different angle: You trade risk for expected payout. Imagine each of these scenarios is like flipping coins with different values attached. At the end of the year, you flip one coin: - Bonds: Heads, you gain 1%. Tails, you gain 1%. If it lands on it's side, you lose everything (government default) - Stocks: Heads, you gain 15%. Tails, you lose 10%. A lot more risk here, but the expecte…

I think this is miss-representing Buffett's position here. First off, he explicitly states that the riskiness of an asset should not be measured by its volatility:

> Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a nonfluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

He goes on to describe what sorts of investments he thinks are worthwhile. Namely investments in assets that will continue to be productive in the long term.

> Investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment.

Again, this isn't framed in terms of risk. Probably because with a diversified portfolio the risk is not at all analogous to flipping a coin (there is obviously still risk, but it's not that simple). Instead, it's framed as current versus future consumption.

As for gold, I don't think he frames it in terms of speculation versus investment at all. Buffett recognizes that gold will probably continue to hold value. Instead, he decides to frame the question in terms of whether gold is a productive asset. It isn't. It will just sit there.

> You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#26
post #15
post #9

He's wrong. Stocks do not beat gold once inflation outpaces the rate of average market returns, which is exactly where we're at now. Gold is up 87 fold over 90 years or so. There is no way to capture that kind of return out of stocks, other than to buy one stock, Apple at the absolute bottom, or buy Dell the day it IPO'd or other similar freak scenarios, and then hold all the way through, and then sell at the absolut…

Are you taking dividend yields into account?

Yes.

The S&P for example has had a roughly 2% average dividend yield on its basket of stocks over the past several decades. That helps, as without that dividend value the real return for stocks would be even worse the past decade.

For dividends to work in an inflationary environment, you need serious yield. AT&T and Verizon as common stocks would get you close with their 6%x yields. Most people these days of course can't get access to good yield on anything with interest rates on the floor (corporate debt and select few dividends being nearly the sole safe exceptions).

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#27
post #17
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An unstable government could just as easily seize your gold. What investor cares about millennia? Centuries is already too much, unless you're vastly more concerned about your great great great grandchildren than most people. 100 years is probably the absolute largest possible upper limit for a real investor to care about, and typically it's much less still.

I think he was talking about a small amount of gold. Twenty-thousand dollars worth could fit in your hand and easily be smuggled in clothes, luggage, etc. That's pretty handy if you had the flee the country from nazis(or whatever) that have stolen all of your other assets. Admittedly that's a pretty unlikely scenario.

It's even more unlikely because you then have to find a buyer that's willing to pay market price for the gold wherever you end up at. You'll be reduced to selling it for whatever people are willing to pay.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#28
post #6

He omits the only valid reason any non-speculator would own gold - it holds it's value through times of political turmoil - holds it's value over millenia rather than decades or centuries. A coup d'etat may result in seizure of private companies, rendering your stock worthless, but not touching the value of gold. It would be speculating to put all your assets into gold, but a small amount is like an insurance policy.…

Paranoia is not an investment strategy.

There are a whole lot of things that have to go seriously wrong before we revert back to a gold-based currency. Even if we did, all the gold in the world won't help with the food shortages resulting from the collapse of companies like Monsanto.

Most of the grain we use has to be chemically activated to grow. If the country falls apart to the point where those chemicals are not available, there is no amount of gold that will buy a loaf of bread.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#29
post #6

He omits the only valid reason any non-speculator would own gold - it holds it's value through times of political turmoil - holds it's value over millenia rather than decades or centuries. A coup d'etat may result in seizure of private companies, rendering your stock worthless, but not touching the value of gold. It would be speculating to put all your assets into gold, but a small amount is like an insurance policy.…

Unfortunately it is worth noting that FDR instigated the greatest private wealth seizure in the history of the planet when he stole all of America's privately held gold with force.

If you've got a government that is willing to plunder like that, there's no great way to keep your wealth safe except to get yourself and your wealth out of the country.

Re: Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds

#30
post #6

He omits the only valid reason any non-speculator would own gold - it holds it's value through times of political turmoil - holds it's value over millenia rather than decades or centuries. A coup d'etat may result in seizure of private companies, rendering your stock worthless, but not touching the value of gold. It would be speculating to put all your assets into gold, but a small amount is like an insurance policy.…

The problem with gold in times of turmoil basically boils down to you saying "here's (insert weight) of gold that I'll use to pay for this", and the person you're dealing with saying "yeah, and I'm the Queen of England".

Without some sort of neutral respected authority to assay and say "yup, it's gold", you just have shiny pebbles and/or dust. And when everything around you has collapsed, reliable access to a trusted assayer may not be so... reliable.

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