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Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

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Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#111

Post by spaceman_2020 »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #19
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were an average engineer destined to work in cookie-cutter roles in tech consultancies, would you still pursue a tech career, knowing that your job will sooner or later be taken over by AI? Remember that careers last 30 years, and if you're the average engineer, you're more likely to fall into the 80% of the pareto half than the 20%. Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years?…

> Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 1) No, but I am nonetheless skeptical of AI-takeover in general — I'm in the wait-and-see camp and so wouldn't be put off by the might-happens. 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 3) Confession: I'm retired and no longer have any skin in the game.

If you’re entering college right now, you’ll be around 33 in 15 years.

We have no way of knowing what this tech will be like in 15 years.

The iPhone was released about 15 years ago. Even the most prescient of us couldn’t have predicted how fundamentally that would change life, culture, work and business.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#113

Post by spaceman_2020 »

projectazorian wrote: post #108
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

boggles my mind that we had a tool that was smart when it was first launched in November 2022, experienced a massive generational improvement in the next iteration (GPT-4) within 4 months...and people on HN are ready to assert that this is the best it will ever be. It improved drastically in quality within 4 months, yet for some reason, the nex 10 years will see 0 progress in a field with literally tens of billions a…

Most revolutionary technical changes like this tend to hit a plateau in progress right after they hit the top of the hype cycle. It’s unlikely that AI/ML will be an exception. Not bad news for anyone involved in this work, though. That period is when the real business and societal changes happen. It’s also when most of the money gets made. People and businesses need time to test new technology and adapt it so that it…

Again, the point is that careers are built over decades, and this proof of concept tech is already good enough to do the job of a coding intern.

That might not be a threat to you if you’re a 35 year old developer, but if you’re an 18 year old exiting high school, there’s a non zero chance that by the time you’re 35 - 17 years - the tech will be good enough to replace you.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#114

Post by spaceman_2020 »

bombolo wrote: post #105
rippercushions wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ChatGPT 4 developer demo showcased literally all three of those. https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/how-to-watch-first-d...

Lol, I talked about very short snippets and you counter my argument with a video showing very short snippets. If I wasn't scared before, I'm even less scared now. But if all you do is write trivial code anyone can learn to write in 1 week, with extremely detailed instructions, perhaps your job is in danger indeed. That's not what a software engineer does anyway.

You completely ignored my original point about this tech replacing the bottom 80%ile of coders, not the top 20%.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#115

Post by [deleted] »

giantg2 wrote: post #100
aio2 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yall need to calm your asses. It's just a comparison to other job

It's more than that. It's the continuation of a distorted view of reality in which the world is a meritocracy and everyone can be rich if they just try hard enough. That's there's nothing stopping anyone from taking a job that doesn't require years of training and making 2x+ the median for that role and using just an anecdote to back it up. This type of stuff is detrimental to the choices and mental health of the nex…

[deleted]

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#116

Post by evilduck »

giantg2 wrote: post #94
evilduck wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have an employee right now with Bachelor of Art in Music whose career in music fizzled out making $190k today in software outside of SV. That's it. That's his software credentials. A physician lost far more money in life getting their degree and spends about that gap in pay in malpractice insurance and professional attire required to work in a hospital, and generally works more hours at a higher stress level. Your…

That's one example. Look at the medians. I mean, this is HN not Reddit. We should be looking at the data.

Look at the data then, because your cherry picking nonsense to support your sob story is tiring.

https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm

Sorting by annual income, software developers are surrounded by more highly credentialed career options that are much harder to get into or are surrounded by similar paying roles that much more sparsely available per capita.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#117

Post by borroka »

iaseiadit wrote: post #95
sage76 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career Everyone I know who is older and already in the industry, is having a bad time trying to change jobs.

I work for a FAANG, and I don’t know of a single IC here that was hired in their 40s or older. Almost everyone we’ve hired is in their 20s, with a handful in their early 30s. As a 40+ IC, I’m praying I don’t get laid off because it looks rough for older workers.

I got hired by a FAANG when I was 38, but I was definitely an outlier (although someone older than me got hired a few months after me, both as IC's). Looking back, I was lucky to hop on one of the very last trains leaving the station.

If I get fired or laid off, I will probably try to open a restaurant instead of looking for another tech job.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#118

Post by Tiktaalik »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #24
JCM9 wrote: post #17

Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career, start at an entry level position, work your way very high up the ladder and get paid very well along the way. I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps who worked their way up to senior roles in big tech that make multiples more than most physicians I know or others that had to go down a rigid path to get to…

> I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps I know a few as well ... but that was decade(s) ago. I'm not sure the industry is still as hurdle-able as it once was.

This still exists in the games industry, where you can start in QA and move to design or production.

I've seen it many times and continue to see it.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#119

Post by giantg2 »

evilduck wrote: post #116
giantg2 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's one example. Look at the medians. I mean, this is HN not Reddit. We should be looking at the data.

Look at the data then, because your cherry picking nonsense to support your sob story is tiring. https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm Sorting by annual income, software developers are surrounded by more highly credentialed career options that are much harder to get into or are surrounded by similar paying roles that much more sparsely available per capita.

What sob story? Are those immediately adjacent roles physicians - no, they're making almost double nased on median hourly wage. There are many near that level that do not require extensive training, including ones that have sizable representation (look at all those manager positions, and FYI magistrates are near there and require no law degree, etc).

Had that person used nurses, PAs, etc, then they would have been correct. Those do have training requirements and make similar money.

FYI, that's the mean annual income. I'm talking about median (use the median hourly wage column).

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#120

Post by chris11 »

sage76 wrote: post #42
JCM9 wrote: post #17

Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career, start at an entry level position, work your way very high up the ladder and get paid very well along the way. I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps who worked their way up to senior roles in big tech that make multiples more than most physicians I know or others that had to go down a rigid path to get to…

> Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career Everyone I know who is older and already in the industry, is having a bad time trying to change jobs.

I'm at a FAANG adjacent company and we do hire older ICs. Though I wouldn't want to be interviewing right now. Senior level interviews can be demanding, and junior positions hard to find.

It's crappy answer to age discrimination, but people pivoting can leave less relevant experience off of resumes. I've done that.

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