Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant? • Hacker News Board

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#11

Post by rcoveson » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:12 PM UTC

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #3

its_ethan wrote: post #2

"If heat could be bled off of the magma chambers, cooling and solidifying them, not only would that stop the volcano from erupting..." Where does the confidence to make this claim come from? I can imagine that the consequence of this might actually just be strengthening the "barrier" the magma has to erupt through, and when it finally builds up enough energy to do that, it'll be stronger in proportion to how strong t…

Betteridge's law of headlines aside. I feel like the scale of the topic is almost completely human inconceivable when trying to tie it to a realistic engineering task. It seems like a fun what-if, but when you do that you are using making giant hand waving excuses, and not anything that looks like a factual claim.

> Betteridge's law of headlines aside.

Godwin-Bettridge-Graham law: Any headline that ends in a question mark which is posted to HN will have Bettridge's law of headlines mentioned at least once in its first dozen comments.

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#12

Post by anecdotal1 » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:12 PM UTC

m348e912 wrote: post #5

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Betteridge's law of headlines aside. I feel like the scale of the topic is almost completely human inconceivable when trying to tie it to a realistic engineering task. It seems like a fun what-if, but when you do that you are using making giant hand waving excuses, and not anything that looks like a factual claim.

Agreed. Geothermal energy can be cheap and awesome, but there are reasons why it's only practical in certain parts of the world.

We should be able to use the latest horizontal drilling tech from fracking to tap Yellowstone from miles away

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#13

Post by version_five » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:14 PM UTC

its_ethan wrote: post #2

"If heat could be bled off of the magma chambers, cooling and solidifying them, not only would that stop the volcano from erupting..." Where does the confidence to make this claim come from? I can imagine that the consequence of this might actually just be strengthening the "barrier" the magma has to erupt through, and when it finally builds up enough energy to do that, it'll be stronger in proportion to how strong t…

> I can imagine that the consequence of this might actually just be strengthening the "barrier" the magma has to erupt through, and when it finally builds up enough energy to do that, it'll be stronger in proportion to how strong the newly cooled down barrier had become?

Certainly the movie version has the one rogue scientist working late into the night redoing the calculations and realizing that as soon as the plant goes live it will trigger the volcano.

In real life, I have no idea how this kind of thing gets analyzed, and what kind of uncertainty is involved. It feels a bit like those "put a bunch of reflectors in space to stop climate change" ideas. On the other hand, removing energy from a system seems like a good way to make it safer...

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#14

Post by fabian2k » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:14 PM UTC

javajosh wrote: post #10

This is the seed of a science fiction novel that takes place in a far future dystopia where humanities remnants scavenge in the ruins, and who's brightest members are kidnapped by a mysterious group that turns out to be an AI run organization executing the Yellowstone mega project on a 50kyr timeline. And so on.

There is a plot point a bit along those lines in the DLC for Horizon Zero Dawn with a project to prevent a Yellowstone eruption that is controlled by an AI.

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#15

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:15 PM UTC

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #3

its_ethan wrote: post #2

"If heat could be bled off of the magma chambers, cooling and solidifying them, not only would that stop the volcano from erupting..." Where does the confidence to make this claim come from? I can imagine that the consequence of this might actually just be strengthening the "barrier" the magma has to erupt through, and when it finally builds up enough energy to do that, it'll be stronger in proportion to how strong t…

Betteridge's law of headlines aside. I feel like the scale of the topic is almost completely human inconceivable when trying to tie it to a realistic engineering task. It seems like a fun what-if, but when you do that you are using making giant hand waving excuses, and not anything that looks like a factual claim.

[deleted]

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#16

Post by hyperbole » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:18 PM UTC

javajosh wrote: post #10

This is the seed of a science fiction novel that takes place in a far future dystopia where humanities remnants scavenge in the ruins, and who's brightest members are kidnapped by a mysterious group that turns out to be an AI run organization executing the Yellowstone mega project on a 50kyr timeline. And so on.

I think you just described the show "Travelers"

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#17

Post by bcrosby95 » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:18 PM UTC

erulabs wrote: post #4

its_ethan wrote: post #2

"If heat could be bled off of the magma chambers, cooling and solidifying them, not only would that stop the volcano from erupting..." Where does the confidence to make this claim come from? I can imagine that the consequence of this might actually just be strengthening the "barrier" the magma has to erupt through, and when it finally builds up enough energy to do that, it'll be stronger in proportion to how strong t…

Yeah not to mention the construction of the plant itself! I wouldn’t want to be operating the drill that punctures the magma chambers! I’m optimistic. If we spent less time engineering society and more time engineering the earth, I think we’d all be a lot happier.

The JPL plan doesn't actually puncture the magma chambers.

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#18

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:18 PM UTC

erulabs wrote: post #4

its_ethan wrote: post #2

"If heat could be bled off of the magma chambers, cooling and solidifying them, not only would that stop the volcano from erupting..." Where does the confidence to make this claim come from? I can imagine that the consequence of this might actually just be strengthening the "barrier" the magma has to erupt through, and when it finally builds up enough energy to do that, it'll be stronger in proportion to how strong t…

Yeah not to mention the construction of the plant itself! I wouldn’t want to be operating the drill that punctures the magma chambers! I’m optimistic. If we spent less time engineering society and more time engineering the earth, I think we’d all be a lot happier.

[deleted]

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#19

Post by cubefox » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:19 PM UTC

tl;dr: Theoretically, probably yes; practically, probably no.

Re: Could we stop Yellowstone from erupting with a giant geothermal power plant?

#20

Post by aurizon » Tue, Apr 25, 2023, 6:22 PM UTC

Tapping the hot plume would not penetrate the magma chamber. They would drill down and created a number of holes turned horizontally in the hot rock zone above it. They would then drill a number of holes horizontally - which they would fracture(frack) and inject cold water - in one set and get steam from another. The steam used in turbines and then returned. Minerals and ions would make this water very corrosive and the pipe alloys would be chosen for long life(?). As to whether or not they can reduce volcano risk = accurate models and assessment of the existing heat flux that now makes Yellowstone bubble might give some ideal of any hope for success. In any event, they should at least create and study these models and assess in the rate of migration of the hop spot - since it is a slowly changing steady state, it may be that removing enough heat can change when the next eruption occurs. The actual magma may be too hot for pipes to carry water in as the metal may be so close to the melting point that they will explode from the flash steam. An intermediate heat transfer fluid could be used(such as melted sodium) to get closer to the hotter zones with a lower risk of pressure explosions. The other aspect is what % of the heat could be extracted this way - if it is 0.1% - it might not be worthwhile. The Icelandic ongoing work in this area is worth looking into.