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Russia killed its tech industry

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Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#151
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Political activists and journalists are hardly the brightest group of people either, so you’re just assigning the opposition group that you prefer to align with, with a token of “the brightest” because it makes you feel good about it. How about you look at the rest of the society who couldn’t or weren’t willing to leave the country and who still run projects in Russia despite the sanctions. Are they not the brightest…

There's lot of smart people left, that's no doubt, but there is an obvious filter that the ones left behind are on average less risk taking, more conservative, often older, often the ones with the national motto of "от нас ничего не зависит/there's nothing I can do", and the next google or the next scientific breakthrough is much more likely to come out of the young risk taking ones now living in a functional country…

> but there is an obvious filter that the ones left behind are on average less risk taking

Where’s that clarity come from? The opposite could be argued as well: those who’ve left are seeking safety and safety isn’t associated with risk taking. There are fewer risks in leaving Russia than in staying in.

> breakthrough is much more likely to come out of the young risk taking ones now living in a functional country and not from the aging engineers living in a dictatorship and working at a bureaucratic rosatom making "up to $720 a month" (actual number, I looked up their open engineering vacancies).

Here, you did it again: “those who work at are less likely to make a breakthrough, because I don’t align with them, and therefore I assume that only aging engineers uncapable of breakthroughs would consider staying and working there. Look, even salaries prove that they are less likely to have it.”

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#152
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has nukes, it doesn't matter how much we drain its military, it can just freeze the war, go back and rebuild. Let's say it takes 10 years. It's not solving the issue, just pushing it back to reappear later. On the other hand a decisive win for Ukraine followed by western-integration success story there - would directly contradict Putin's core internal justification for keeping his power (west is lying ,democra…

Why would a quick win of Ukraine suddenly change the political landscape in Russia? Russians don't protest now, so why would they suddenly start doing that? However, a weak Russia cannot keep regions that want to break away. Russia as we know it now is not going to exist anymore. Not because they would suddenly overthrow the current government (which they won't). But because plenty of 'friendly' neighbor states might…

Quick win allows Ukraine to integrate with the west (EU and hopefully NATO) and be a success story. The whole "social contract" in Russia is based on the assumption that "ruskie" people (which they say includes Belarusians and Ukrainians) can't prosper in a democracy. That you need dictatorship. Anything else is a western lie that lead to a "failed state" (the favorite russian name for Ukraine) and 90s-like situation.

Ukrainians have families in Russia and vice-versa. They travel, talk, watch the same videos, etc. Currently there's censorship, but it won't go on forever, it won't block everything. People knew they can't call it a war but it was a war. Propaganda can't lie about everything all of the time.

If Ukrainians have a successful democracy, if Russians migrate to work in Ukraine and not the other way around - that would be the ultimate blow to the core of the russian social contract.

Imagine if Mexico turned 100% communist and became obviously richer than USA in 5 years. So rich that Americans migrated there in millions. What would it do to Republicans in USA?

This is BTW the real reason Putin invaded Ukraine - because it started on this road. And that was the ultimate threat to Russian authocrats.

That's why Russia will try to prolong the war, freeze and unfreeze it, threat Ukraine to scare the foreign investors and EU countries, etc. This is why they target cities and infrastructure even more than the army. As long as people in Russia are wealthier than in Ukraine and Belarus - Putin's fine.

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who left the country are not just software developers. We have seen the exodus of musicians, scientists etc, which after some very painful decision process just packed their things and took next flight anywhere. Many took their families.

Software engineers were a simple example of the conflation point. Those who left and those who’re the brightest aren’t the same group.

As a MSU CS alumni I can tell you, it is pretty clear the brighter, the more likely to leave.

Among my peers most left, even the ones that used to be relatively pro Puilo for whatever reasons.

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#154
post #31
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a major blunder On the contrary this war is Putin's multiyear bet on Russia's useful idiots in the West. US Republicans overwhelmingly supported US military aid to Ukraine in the beginning of the war. However Tucker Carlson and other populists spend the next 12 months lowering that support to less than 40%. The only reason Russia started this war is because they believed their useful idiots in the West will save the…

We know for a fact that Putin thought it will take less than a month. There were russian propaganda articles posted russian state media accidently that celebrated the "succesfull take-over of whole Ukraine" stating that it only lasted few days. So yes - it was a blunder. And yes - they are counting on useful idiots in the west now, but that wasn't the plan, it's russians trying to save whatever they can after that in…

Putin was planning on the useful idiot in the oval office up unto the point he got replaced. Had Trump remained in office Ukraine would be a vassal state now.

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#155
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's lot of smart people left, that's no doubt, but there is an obvious filter that the ones left behind are on average less risk taking, more conservative, often older, often the ones with the national motto of "от нас ничего не зависит/there's nothing I can do", and the next google or the next scientific breakthrough is much more likely to come out of the young risk taking ones now living in a functional country…

> but there is an obvious filter that the ones left behind are on average less risk taking Where’s that clarity come from? The opposite could be argued as well: those who’ve left are seeking safety and safety isn’t associated with risk taking. There are fewer risks in leaving Russia than in staying in. > breakthrough is much more likely to come out of the young risk taking ones now living in a functional country and…

>Where’s that clarity come from? The opposite could be argued as well: those who’ve left are seeking safety and safety isn’t associated with risk taking. There are fewer risks in leaving Russia than in stayin in.

It's not about safety, it's about agency. Because action > inaction. Staying put does not require anything, just making excuses why nothing can be done to either change things or move.

The ones that stayed and are trying to change things might be the brightest and bravest of all, but they are few and might not even survive that decision. Most other ones simply lack any agency and float down towards some not very bright future they have no control over, making excuses why nothing can be done and hoping to lay low and "авось пронесет". Those are less likely to accomplish much.

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too would like to know. Which "accomplishments of the residents" did the USSR steal? There should honestly be a way to ban idiots like you from HN.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Korolev

[flagged]

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software engineers were a simple example of the conflation point. Those who left and those who’re the brightest aren’t the same group.

As a MSU CS alumni I can tell you, it is pretty clear the brighter, the more likely to leave. Among my peers most left, even the ones that used to be relatively pro Puilo for whatever reasons.

> As a MSU CS alumni I can tell you, it is pretty clear the brighter, the more likely to leave.

How does your alumni status’ anecdotal evidence bring clarity on the matter of the predominant intellectual capacity of those who’re leaving Russia? Aren’t there any other MSU graduates who consider themselves as bright as your CS peers and yourself, and who are staying in? What’s the respective left/stayed ratio among them?

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#158
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USSR achieved around a century of advancement under capitalism in the west a few decades after USSR was formed. Despite US having vastly more resources than USSR, the Soviets were able to keep ahead of US in many technological advancements. Maybe you yourself should think of what the west could've achieved if it wasn't run by oligarch kleptocrats.

Indeed. That's the point here. Russia was high up on the axis of overall innovation. But by adopting the bolshevist/communistic terror system, the direction of progress was permanently set into a downward direction. It is a loss for all of humanity at 100% certainty.

Every single of the innovations the OP listed was attained under "the bolshevist/communistic terror system". Prior to the 1917 Revolution, Imperial Russia was an Agricultural backwater that was widely derided as the least industrialized part of Europe.

Honest question: Don't they teach history in school these days? The level of ignorance displayed in some of the comments in this thread is staggering.

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#159
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has been proven to meddle in democratic elections in every single continent, except Africa I think, at this point. But meddling in Africa will surely be made public at one point or another.

On the other hand, are we really comparing the leadership of Afghanistan and Iraq to Ukraine and deciding these things are the same? Last I checked, Ukraine hadn't invaded its neighbors, gassed ethnic minorities, or taken freedom from its entire female population. The US handled Afghanistan and Iraq poorly, and lied about reasons for going in, but there were actual underlying reasons. Ukraine is only being invaded be…

Actually, Ukraine was forcing an ethnic, language and religious cleansing on its people in the two regions that petitioned for sovereignty. Read about this several years ago before all this stuff blew up and propaganda made stuff murky. Their current leader was put in place by a coup. The old regime was corrupt but that doesn't mean the new one is better. Ukrain was already in a civil war.

Re: Russia killed its tech industry

#160
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, are we really comparing the leadership of Afghanistan and Iraq to Ukraine and deciding these things are the same? Last I checked, Ukraine hadn't invaded its neighbors, gassed ethnic minorities, or taken freedom from its entire female population. The US handled Afghanistan and Iraq poorly, and lied about reasons for going in, but there were actual underlying reasons. Ukraine is only being invaded be…

Multiple actors can be horrible at the same time. The US is pretty horrible when it invades other countries, so is Russia. As far as I know, Ukraine never had a military big enough to actually do any invasion of other countries, but if Ukraine was the size of the US with the military of the US, I wouldn't bet on them not being horrible when invading other countries.

Multiple actors can be horrible (Russia is systematically deporting Ukrainian children to Russia and integrating them into Russian families as a matter of state policy.

They're also indiscriminately bombing civilian targets weekly.

Even during the worst days of Fallujah, the US and UK didn't pull back and just arbitrarily pound the city to dust with standoff munitions out of spite.

Ukraine inherited a substantial amount of Soviet materiel after the collapse of the USSR, as well as the personnel trained in its use, however this quickly deteriorated as the support industrial base was in tatters (in Ukraine and Russia).

But in the early 90s they absolutely could have made a very credible invasion against most of their neighbors. [0,1]

Especially, say, the Cobasna ammunition depot in Moldova that's right on their border with up to 20,000 tons of Soviet munitions. [2]

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nunn%E2%80%93Lugar_Cooperati...

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot

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