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iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

networkworld.com

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Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#61

Post by ylee »

mrtksn wrote: post #10

All these “iPhone is doomed” folks had good arguments, the original iPhone was a flawed device. On paper, the incumbent mega corporations should have been able to come up with an iPhone killer quickly, considering the resources available to them. What they missed was the inertia and the lack of agility in these big companies. They kept insisting on their current plans until it was too late. Only Google was capable of…

I helped cover Apple for a large investment bank. The day of the iPhone announcement in January 2007, I saw a press release from Motorola come across the wire, in which the company announced yet another phone with a keyboard. I felt pity for the unfortunate souls who had designed it, worked on its launch, and wrote the copy for the press release, and who now had to see their efforts fly into the iPhone Hurricane.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#62

Post by garaetjjte »

toast0 wrote: post #23
kedikedi wrote: post #2

Very interesting article to read after 15 years and it seems to have aged like milk so to speak :) I think the main thing is that the author approaches the problem very logically (just comparing features) yet the users don't follow their logic. While I agree that windows mobile 8 was brilliant*, smartphone domain suffers horribly from network effect. Windows phone came too late into the game and couldn't move quick e…

> I missed out on windows mobile 7 which is the one this article mentions but I used windows mobile 6 and windows phone 8. Windows phone 8 was heavily inspired by windows mobile 7 aesthetics so I think they are comparable in ux. UX wise, 8 was a lot like 7. 8 added a few UX features, but the big differences were tecnical: NT kernel vs wince, which allowed for dual and quad core phones, which made background execution…

WP7 limitations were almost entirely by policy: no native code, no background execution, lack of any shared filesystem for apps. (also WinCE SMP did exist)

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#63

Post by charrondev »

toast0 wrote: post #23
kedikedi wrote: post #2

Very interesting article to read after 15 years and it seems to have aged like milk so to speak :) I think the main thing is that the author approaches the problem very logically (just comparing features) yet the users don't follow their logic. While I agree that windows mobile 8 was brilliant*, smartphone domain suffers horribly from network effect. Windows phone came too late into the game and couldn't move quick e…

> I missed out on windows mobile 7 which is the one this article mentions but I used windows mobile 6 and windows phone 8. Windows phone 8 was heavily inspired by windows mobile 7 aesthetics so I think they are comparable in ux. UX wise, 8 was a lot like 7. 8 added a few UX features, but the big differences were tecnical: NT kernel vs wince, which allowed for dual and quad core phones, which made background execution…

> a new application framework for better or worse (a staple of the windows phone era)

Not just of the windows phone era, but also of the windows 8+ Era as well. Microsoft has been through so many new application frameworks at this point. It definitely hurt them a lot on Windows Phone though as application compatibility was the biggest miss. They failed to convince developers to come to their platform.

IIRC correctly they even had monetary incentives for developers to come to the platform and some of the applications that were developed died due to the framework changes (and a lack of developer will to invest further into a comparably small user base).

This is pretty well seen on Windows desktop today as well. Many of the most popular windows applications are now embedded browser engines like Electron. Even if developers were willing to eschew cross-platform compatibility which windows UI toolkit should they bet on? Which will be easiest to hire for in 5-10 years?

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#64

Post by fsh »

johnwalkr wrote: post #60
fsh wrote: post #40

I would argue that the first iPhone is in a different device category than its successors. It had only a 2G modem (very slow even in 2007) and (at launch) no third-party app support. It was essentially a dumb phone with a gimmicky interface that could be also used for surfing the web while on WiFi. The iPhone 3G was the first true smartphone from Apple. I therefore find it not surprising that many journalists where n…

Those shortcomings didn’t matter because the interface, screen, safari, iTunes and Google maps were so good. If I recall correctly, every iPhone plan was unlimited data or at least much more data than people normally got meaning you could browse the full featured web (ok without flash). Most phones before it with web browsers were convenient in a pinch for looking up an address or something, but didn’t feel like pock…

Maps was yet another gimmick on the first iPhone since it did not have GPS. Other high-end phones at the time had turn-by-turn navigation and offline maps. It is funny to rewatch the original iPhone presentation. It had so few useful features, that Jobs spent a considerable amount of time explaining the voice mail app.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#65

Post by andreskytt »

People consistently fail to properly assess the system architecture aspects of things. Iphone is not a standalone device but part of a complex system including hardware, software, organizational processes working on the app store etc. The device can be copied and improved upon with ease. The entire architecture of how these thousands of elements supporting the device fit together is much harder to copy. Consider Russia. They are, to an extent, capable of copying US technological devices from cruise missiles to aircraft. But they have, since 02.22, consistently failed to demonstrate their ability to make all the parts work together like the US has been able to. This despite US being their biggest strategic adversary and the considerable material and intellectual resources available.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#66

Post by sys_64738 »

m348e912 wrote: post #4

Makes you wonder if there should be professional repercussions for being so wrong. Does credibility or accuracy with assessments and predictions even matter? Other notable examples are Jim Cramer, who seems to be more wrong than right on stock and company analysis but still gets paid handsomely by CNBC. Or Paul Krugman who said the Internet's Effect on the World Economy Would Be 'No Greater Than the Fax Machine's. Kr…

Ballmer lost is CEO job.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#67

Post by sys_64738 »

starik36 wrote: post #38

This article reminds me of a conversation I had in 1995. We were using Astound on Windows 3.1 - a PowerPoint like product. Once Windows 95 came out, we quickly upgraded to it, but Astound didn't run well on it. So I called their tech support asking when the Windows 95 version is coming. They told me they didn't think Windows 95 will be popular. Instead they were working on a version for OS/2 Warp. I tried to tell the…

The marketing campaign for W95 was literally everywhere when it was released. People camped out at stores to buy it. The same happened with the iPhone. When you consider how garbage the cellphone was pre-iPhone then it rescued the market. Jobs knew Apple zealots would buy it as the iPod market showed it possible.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#68

Post by sys_64738 »

Seanambers wrote: post #5

I still remember vividly all my friends with Qteks running windows mobile going on about how Apple had no chance doing phones. All the power users I knew were like taking out their styluses - I kid you not - and was like look at what I can do. First time I saw pinch to zoom i was sold, maybe I would have thought differently if I have had a "smartphone" back then.

Simplicity is what the original iPhone was about. People saw it as an iPod with a phone at first before data plan became the thing. Remember that data plans were unlimited originally due to limited uptake.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#70

Post by johnwalkr »

fsh wrote: post #64
johnwalkr wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those shortcomings didn’t matter because the interface, screen, safari, iTunes and Google maps were so good. If I recall correctly, every iPhone plan was unlimited data or at least much more data than people normally got meaning you could browse the full featured web (ok without flash). Most phones before it with web browsers were convenient in a pinch for looking up an address or something, but didn’t feel like pock…

Maps was yet another gimmick on the first iPhone since it did not have GPS. Other high-end phones at the time had turn-by-turn navigation and offline maps. It is funny to rewatch the original iPhone presentation. It had so few useful features, that Jobs spent a considerable amount of time explaining the voice mail app.

It didn't have GPS but it did work well in cities using skyhook.
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