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iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

networkworld.com

31–40 of 71 posts

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#31
Funny side story about this publication. I worked at a company that sold a network monitoring appliance that was ‘reviewed’ by them. We found the review… surprising, prompting us to inspect the demo appliance that they’d sent back to us.

They hadn’t even fired it up. The review was, as far as we could tell, entirely fabricated. We brought this to the editorial team’s attention. They responded by adding a few points to our scores.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#32
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple might have genuinely murdered the entire market if they hadn’t insisted on their ridiculous exclusivity plan with AT&T. Whichever Apple exec greenlit that must surely have been an industrial saboteur because it saved 5+ other companies from ruin.

Was Apple insisting on exclusivity with Cingular/AT&T, or was that just the only carrier that would cede control over the phone's software to Apple?

The latter. Apple didn't want exclusivity; they wanted control.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#33
post #10

All these “iPhone is doomed” folks had good arguments, the original iPhone was a flawed device. On paper, the incumbent mega corporations should have been able to come up with an iPhone killer quickly, considering the resources available to them. What they missed was the inertia and the lack of agility in these big companies. They kept insisting on their current plans until it was too late. Only Google was capable of…

Apple might have genuinely murdered the entire market if they hadn’t insisted on their ridiculous exclusivity plan with AT&T. Whichever Apple exec greenlit that must surely have been an industrial saboteur because it saved 5+ other companies from ruin.

Back then the network operators had full control over the devices on their network. They even dictated what features these phones will have. They wanted to sell services like ringtones, so the device manufacturers were almost like their subcontractors.

Apple simply didn’t have an option to do it by itself. Back then Apple wasn’t that powerful, they had a firm grip on music player and music store market but nothing else.

So the story goes, Steve Jobs meets with the CEO of AT&T(called something else back then) in a hotel room and show him the device. Apparently the guy was sold the moment he scrolled the setting and see the rubber effect and accepted to let Apple do the phone in Apple way in exchange of exclusivity.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#34
> "Microsoft Research has a technology concept that uses the device's camera as a motion sensor, enabling motion control while using the device. This means devices will not need accelerometers and other complicated gyroscopes to get these features, and that existing Windows Mobile devices could be upgraded to full Windows Mobile 7 functionality."

Even to this day this makes no sense. How could a camera, which could be obscured by a case or finger, possibly determine the user's motion? How would this work in the dark? To say nothing of the battery this would consume.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#35
post #10

All these “iPhone is doomed” folks had good arguments, the original iPhone was a flawed device. On paper, the incumbent mega corporations should have been able to come up with an iPhone killer quickly, considering the resources available to them. What they missed was the inertia and the lack of agility in these big companies. They kept insisting on their current plans until it was too late. Only Google was capable of…

>Only Google was capable of throwing away their work and starting fresh. Android was blackberry-like just until iPhone came

Danger, Inc made Android, not Google. Google bought them. Android didn’t exist (publicly) until after the iPhone was released. It took until Android 2 (2010?) for it to feel anything like the iPhone (the HTC Dream had a physical keyboard and a trackball).

They didn’t really throw anything out. They added stuff like auto-rotation due to gyro and touch-first APIs with swipe gesture callbacks and what-not. Brian Swetland (from Danger) is a genius and wrote a mobile OS initially for the T-Mobile Sidekick form factor that could have all the touch-first stuff added on without breaking everything. Google’s most genius move of the era was buying the company employing Brian.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#36
Obviously, this opinion has aged like milk. In the author's defense, Apple had, at the time, a remarkable history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Remember it had only been a decade since Microsoft bailed out Apple with $150M. Apple is only a juggernaut in hindsight.

By 2008, Apple had built some really nice computers that had brought them back from the edge of death, and the iPod was obviously a big hit, but neither of those would necessarily lead one to believe that they could make such a big splash in the cell phone industry. Most people who believed that the iPhone would be huge at the time were Apple true-believers.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#37
post #10

All these “iPhone is doomed” folks had good arguments, the original iPhone was a flawed device. On paper, the incumbent mega corporations should have been able to come up with an iPhone killer quickly, considering the resources available to them. What they missed was the inertia and the lack of agility in these big companies. They kept insisting on their current plans until it was too late. Only Google was capable of…

Apple might have genuinely murdered the entire market if they hadn’t insisted on their ridiculous exclusivity plan with AT&T. Whichever Apple exec greenlit that must surely have been an industrial saboteur because it saved 5+ other companies from ruin.

I always thought this was a genius move. Remember, at the time, Apple had no product in the space. The market was highly fragmented, and cell phones were becoming commodity devices. Here's Apple wading into a sea of competitors, with a product that was priced outside of the normal range and needing to differentiate itself. With the AT&T deal, Apple accomplished several things:

1. It put the marketing might of one of the largest corporations behind its brand-new, niche product. The deal created an incentive for this corporation to market the product on Apple's behalf.

2. It created a forced scarcity. Only /some/ people (those on AT&T) could get the iPhone, which immediately created a brand distinction necessary for a luxury product. On day 1, there were haves and have-nots.

3. It provided an out for Apple not ramping up production too fast (whether they could or not). If the iPhone failed, they wouldn't have product everywhere. If Apple couldn't make iPhones fast enough, they would only be affecting a subset of the market.

4. It limited Apple's engineering requirements. They only had to support AT&T's network on day 1, and not the network technologies of the other carriers. Limiting exclusivity to AT&T meant that they could focus on the product while delaying the technical challenges of supporting multiple cellular networks.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#38
This article reminds me of a conversation I had in 1995. We were using Astound on Windows 3.1 - a PowerPoint like product. Once Windows 95 came out, we quickly upgraded to it, but Astound didn't run well on it.

So I called their tech support asking when the Windows 95 version is coming. They told me they didn't think Windows 95 will be popular. Instead they were working on a version for OS/2 Warp. I tried to tell them otherwise, but they were 110% sure.

It was patently obvious to me, after one day spent using it, that Windows 95 would be hugely successful. I had the same feeling after Steve Jobs' presentation of the iPhone.

I am always stunned how things that are obvious to most people completely escape others.

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#39
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple might have genuinely murdered the entire market if they hadn’t insisted on their ridiculous exclusivity plan with AT&T. Whichever Apple exec greenlit that must surely have been an industrial saboteur because it saved 5+ other companies from ruin.

Back then the network operators had full control over the devices on their network. They even dictated what features these phones will have. They wanted to sell services like ringtones, so the device manufacturers were almost like their subcontractors. Apple simply didn’t have an option to do it by itself. Back then Apple wasn’t that powerful, they had a firm grip on music player and music store market but nothing el…

[deleted]

Re: iPhone Doomed to Failure (2008)

#40
I would argue that the first iPhone is in a different device category than its successors. It had only a 2G modem (very slow even in 2007) and (at launch) no third-party app support. It was essentially a dumb phone with a gimmicky interface that could be also used for surfing the web while on WiFi. The iPhone 3G was the first true smartphone from Apple. I therefore find it not surprising that many journalists where not impressed by the first iPhone.
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