We just had a conversation the other day about climate change and methane, and some people were saying 20x as strong as CO2, and others were saying and sometimes correcting them to 28. According to this article the correct answer is 20. That’s still over an order of magnitude difference. It still doesn’t change the priorities much, it means you can leak 40% more methane from a system before it’s worse that coal, but…
Methane naturally turns into CO2 in the atmosphere. Even if it did increase warming more than CO2, once methane emissions reach a steady level, reducing methane emissions won't change a thing, compared to CO2 emissions. This is also similar to meat production emissions. Most of carbon emissions in meat productions are of carbon which was captured from the air as a part of the production cycle, by the plants which fee…
Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
121–130 of 450 posts
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
This sounds like a prelude to a simplistic "the models aren't accurate, so climate change probably isn't really a problem". However the problem with that is that the overwhelming majority of observations and models, many of which are far from simple and use large amounts of data, point to climate change being real, unusually rapid and anthropogenic. Using the argument that these models aren't accurate ignores the fac…
> However the problem with that is that the overwhelming majority of observations and models, many of which are far from simple and use large amounts of data, point to climate change being real, unusually rapid and anthropogenic I think climate change is a problem (not a crisis) but it's important to note that if a scientist questions climate science, he becomes a pariah. In such an environment, it's hard to know how…
As a climate scientist myself, I can tell you this is untrue and a harmful legend. As climate science is mostly atmospheric physics, biology and chemistry, it's pretty much very easy to disagree with anyone if you have a good argument supported by data. If you have strong scientific arguments, it does not matter even if the whole world is against you. On the contrary, this will likely make you famous and secure your career. Scientists (at least the curios ones) love to be proven wrong.
EDIT: spelling
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
All plants we eat are fertilized. We can stop fertilizing and all die.
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Much of this material is also unethically mined. Children are coerced to mine some of this material.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news. You may be able to downvote this comment but you cannot downvote reality.
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
Plants that feed the cattle are overwhelmingly fertilized using fertilizer derived from petroleum products, so it’s not an accurate picture that the feed plants are carbon capture methods.
All plants we eat are fertilized. We can stop fertilizing and all die.
In other words, fertilising the soil with fossil fuel derived products is just.. more profitable.
The solution is probably carbon pricing of some kind for fertilisers: the cost of organic farming needs to be roughly the same. Agricultural subsidies are already enormous, so some of them could be directed to food prices directly, to ease the transition for consumers.
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
The temperature has changed repeatedly without any evidence of human involvement over those longer time periods we can observe. And the levels of CO2 etc. have changed as well, during time periods when it could not possibly have been blamed on humans. I grew up in Canada, in an area with lots of farms... and I remember the high school trips to different geographical features such as moraines which are the residue of…
I don't think you understand what you are arguing. Yes, the average temperature of earth has chaged vastly over its history, giving different levels of habitability. At this time, we're in a really good spot for habitability, and we are seeing that we are slipping out of it. There is evidence that some of the temperature change could very well be human made, and thus easy to stop (compared to, say, the emissions of v…
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
> How? I smell bullsh*t. Actually no, I don't think you would because raising/using cattle would not be allowed if we stopped all methane emitting activities. Also your farts can contain methane, so you'd have to hold them in ... forever. If you've ever had to do that during a long meeting, you should know it is negative to human fluorishing. Giving up hamburgers and farting is not the only thing we'd have to do. I g…
(ChatGPT) There are several human sources of methane, including: - Livestock farming: Methane is produced during the digestive process of ruminant animals such as cows, sheep, and goats. Therefore, animal agriculture is a significant contributor to methane emissions. - Energy production: Methane is the primary component of natural gas, which is commonly used for heating and electricity generation. Methane can also be…
> How could that be detrimental for human flourishing, I ask? Are the burgers essential for humans to flourish? I don't think so.
Disclaimer: I decided to interpret the comment as disagreeing with me because it seemed like the most plausible interpretation giving the ambiguous potential use of sarcasm, but it's very possible I misinterpreted.
The burgers and the farts were an attempt at humor.
A much more serious consideration (also in my original) is heating our homes. If you have ever been homeless longer than a day or two during cold months in a cold place (I spent 6 months this way), you pretty quickly learn how important modern climate controls are. I don't see how you can "fluorish" when you're freezing your ass off. Good luck getting the sleep you need to perform either physical or mental work, which currently is needed in order to fluorish (unless you think the homeless on the street are fluorishing). If you're lucky your employer will be able to heat their office so you could live there, but not everybody works for someone like that. The wealthy would be able to buy whatever they needed (electric heaters, solar panels, battery storage, the high labor costs of retrofitting all these things, assuming these are even still available after the long chain of dependency is broken) but the vast majority of people would not. Human fluorishing is not just comfort for the wealthy. The average person's life matters. Much of what advances our human condition come from people who aren't born into wealth.
How exactly do you propose to heat the average person's home when all fossil fuels are no longer available? And any derivative products of fossil fuels such as plastics? Keep in mind even bio-plastics made from corn and other products would not be nearly as available since we would lose orders of magnitude of production capacity by no longer being able to use fertilizers, tractors and other machinery, etc.
I guess we should probably establish what "human fluorishing" even means otherwise this discussion is pointless. If your idea of human fluorishing is where a massive perecentage of human labor is doing farm work again like in the 19th century, or going back to feudalism where we all work the Lord's land and pick his crops. My definition is where human quality and standard of life continually increases. We're not perfect right now (especially with life expectancies in the US dropping) but our current situation would look like a future paradise compared to what we'd have without any fossil fuel.
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#127This is exactly what the "deniers" have been saying - that the mathematical model is not fleshed out enough, and the data is not present in sufficiently accurate quantity, for the climate models to be accurate. This research shows that the mechanism of action was misunderstood all this time. What else hasn't been researched enough and has simplistic assumptions baked into the climate models? That shockingly simplisti…
Simplistic assumptions does not necessarily have favorable outcomes, on the contrary, it's more likely that climate change is worse than what we think it is because of our assumptions. Also climate models are insanely complex, usually contain thousands of equations that sum up the research efforts over the last hundred years, it's not some simple model that one guy can implement in an evening as you are basically trying to simulate the whole earth from the scale of plant stomata and molecular diffusion to the entire boundary layer plus the interactions and feedbacks between the different parts of the earth system.
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Methane naturally turns into CO2 in the atmosphere. Even if it did increase warming more than CO2, once methane emissions reach a steady level, reducing methane emissions won't change a thing, compared to CO2 emissions. This is also similar to meat production emissions. Most of carbon emissions in meat productions are of carbon which was captured from the air as a part of the production cycle, by the plants which fee…
It takes 10 years for that to happen. So the effect in the short term is 20 time more greenhouse gas effect. If we stopped producing CH4 now, it'd be 10 years to see the drop back to co2 levels.
In terms of climate change it’s not a 10 years thing and then methane instantly swaps, it’s a second by second thing where a percentage of existing methane is constantly converted. In steady state new methane from say cow farts 1:1 replaces methane from past cow farts being transformed into CO2. The only difference is an atom of CH4 at 16.043 grams per mol weigh less than an atom of CO2 at 44.009 grams per mol. Though many sources of CH4 start by extracting atmospheric CO2, natural gas leaks don’t.
The critical difference is if we cut net CO2 and hold methane steady the atmosphere stops warming, where cutting methane and CO2 would actually cool the atmosphere.
Put another way NEW sources of methane are different because it takes multiple years to reach an equilibrium. In the first years they have a very big impact, but eventually it falls off until eventually a constant source of CO2 may actually have a larger impact.
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
> climate in 2023 is not significantly different than the climate in 2005 'Devastating' melt of Greenland, Antarctic ice sheets found https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35657570 This was here just yesterday. You may not feel it "on your own skin", but Earth does. And what exactly will happen when we'll lose all ice, we simply do not know. We just know it won't be pretty. > stopping all methane emitting activities w…
The Earth doesn't feel anything because it is not sentient. Anthropomorphizing topics causes us to treat them emotionally. The OP has an excellent point which you didn't address them: most methane in the atmosphere is from natural causes. When the amount due to humans is removed, the effect on heating is not very significant in comparison of our CO2 emissions . Stated another way, the OP is warning against premature…
"Human activities contribute significantly to the total amount of methane emissions in the atmosphere. According to the Global Methane Budget, human activities account for about 60% of global methane emissions, while natural sources account for the remaining 40%.
To put this into perspective, it is estimated that human activities emit about 330 million metric tons of methane per year, while natural sources emit about 230 million metric tons per year. Human activities that contribute to methane emissions include livestock farming, waste management, and energy production, as well as other activities such as rice cultivation and biomass burning.
While natural sources of methane, such as wetlands and wildfires, are also significant contributors to methane emissions, human activities have increased the amount of methane in the atmosphere by about 150% since pre-industrial times. Therefore, reducing human emissions of methane is crucial for mitigating the impacts of climate change."
- ChatGPT
Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought
#130We just had a conversation the other day about climate change and methane, and some people were saying 20x as strong as CO2, and others were saying and sometimes correcting them to 28. According to this article the correct answer is 20. That’s still over an order of magnitude difference. It still doesn’t change the priorities much, it means you can leak 40% more methane from a system before it’s worse that coal, but…
Methane naturally turns into CO2 in the atmosphere. Even if it did increase warming more than CO2, once methane emissions reach a steady level, reducing methane emissions won't change a thing, compared to CO2 emissions. This is also similar to meat production emissions. Most of carbon emissions in meat productions are of carbon which was captured from the air as a part of the production cycle, by the plants which fee…
Come on.