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Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

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Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#41
> Scientists fear that as warming triggers thaw of permafrost in the Arctic regions, this could also lead to increased methane emissions

Could?

This is already happening.

Scientists such as Natalia Shakhova have been studying this for years. This is a video of her from 10 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#42
post #5
post #3

Source study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01144-z

Nature.com has a dark pattern on the accept cookie workflow. I expected better from them

Scientific publishing is one of the most parasitic industries out there. To be clear the authors of studies that get published at places like nature have very little leverage on this kind of thing -- it is the rent-seeking publishers that are driving it.

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#44
post #13

We just had a conversation the other day about climate change and methane, and some people were saying 20x as strong as CO2, and others were saying and sometimes correcting them to 28. According to this article the correct answer is 20. That’s still over an order of magnitude difference. It still doesn’t change the priorities much, it means you can leak 40% more methane from a system before it’s worse that coal, but…

The other big difference is that methane stays only around 12 years in the atmosphere compared to centuries for CO2.

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#45
post #13

We just had a conversation the other day about climate change and methane, and some people were saying 20x as strong as CO2, and others were saying and sometimes correcting them to 28. According to this article the correct answer is 20. That’s still over an order of magnitude difference. It still doesn’t change the priorities much, it means you can leak 40% more methane from a system before it’s worse that coal, but…

The other big difference is that methane stays only around 12 years in the atmosphere compared to centuries for CO2.

My understanding is that the methane decomposes into CO2 and water, so it ends up doing the same damage as CO2 in addition, anyway.

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#46
post #13

We just had a conversation the other day about climate change and methane, and some people were saying 20x as strong as CO2, and others were saying and sometimes correcting them to 28. According to this article the correct answer is 20. That’s still over an order of magnitude difference. It still doesn’t change the priorities much, it means you can leak 40% more methane from a system before it’s worse that coal, but…

The other big difference is that methane stays only around 12 years in the atmosphere compared to centuries for CO2.

It converts to CO2 if I recall correctly, only 19x of it expires effectively.

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#47

This is exactly what the "deniers" have been saying - that the mathematical model is not fleshed out enough, and the data is not present in sufficiently accurate quantity, for the climate models to be accurate. This research shows that the mechanism of action was misunderstood all this time. What else hasn't been researched enough and has simplistic assumptions baked into the climate models? That shockingly simplisti…

Oh no, from 28x to 20x. It must mean there is no problem at all!

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#48

Climate change deniers are going to have field day with this one.

Denier is such a loaded word, call them skeptic. In this case at least, seems their skepticism was warranted.

If it is loaded in the sense that they will keep their beliefs despite the vast amount of data proving that not only it exists but it is happening, I am fine with that.

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#49

This is exactly what the "deniers" have been saying - that the mathematical model is not fleshed out enough, and the data is not present in sufficiently accurate quantity, for the climate models to be accurate. This research shows that the mechanism of action was misunderstood all this time. What else hasn't been researched enough and has simplistic assumptions baked into the climate models? That shockingly simplisti…

[flagged]

Re: Methane may not warm the Earth quite as much as previously thought

#50
post #13

We just had a conversation the other day about climate change and methane, and some people were saying 20x as strong as CO2, and others were saying and sometimes correcting them to 28. According to this article the correct answer is 20. That’s still over an order of magnitude difference. It still doesn’t change the priorities much, it means you can leak 40% more methane from a system before it’s worse that coal, but…

Methane naturally turns into CO2 in the atmosphere. Even if it did increase warming more than CO2, once methane emissions reach a steady level, reducing methane emissions won't change a thing, compared to CO2 emissions.

This is also similar to meat production emissions. Most of carbon emissions in meat productions are of carbon which was captured from the air as a part of the production cycle, by the plants which feed the cattle.

The narrative is extremely misleading.

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