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Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

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Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the difference between HBS ideas and these Asian companies? I have no background in economics so idk. Like what advantages do both have? From this comment it reads like HBS has no merit at all but I'd imagine that's not the entire picture

Business school type leadership rarely works in high tech. Important decisions are technological decisions. It's easier to pick senior engineers from the industry and give them business education than vice versa. There is also special field called industrial engineering that trains people to manage and lead industrial processes.

Rarely work in growing healthy tech. But one or two generations later…

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#42
post #33
post #9

I highly recommend browsing through the videos in Asianometrys channel if you want easily digestible summaries on this topic: https://youtube.com/@Asianometry TSMC analysis playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLKtxx9TnH76SRC7ZbOu2Nsg5m...

A recent interview with Shang-Yi Chiang, former Vice President of R&D at TSMC (also held positions at TI, HP, and SMIC) had insightful commentary on the speed of bringing up a new node. "We all take two years to develop one generation, how come you guys can do it in one or one-and-a-half year?" And they asked if some of your customer transfer technology to you or what not? And I told him, "No," I told him that, "That…

Manufacturing equipment isn't plug-and-play like an office laser printer. It's more like a paint brush and you're responsible for the results. It seems they spend more time learning how to get the most out of their tools.

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is he implying the same engineer works 3 shifts or that they have 3 shifts of engineers 24/7?

3 separate shifts iirc. But don't Intel run 24/7 too? Or is that just for prod? I remember some plant (not Intel, a memory plant) had an issue and lost power for a few hours and lost a shite load of memory wafers and took a couple days to come back into prod.

Intel certainly do run machines 24/7 but perhaps those R&D engineers/PhD's don't, so maybe only the techie's running the machines have full coverage...?

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#45
post #34
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The important thing to understand is that at the level of chip manufacturing, you’re doing advanced materials science. These aren’t just abstract logic gates and structures built out of them, such as SRAMs. At the manufacturing level, the logic gates are nano-scale 3D structures made of different materials and in different shapes. For example, at this scale, the shape of the transistor gates has a big effect on perfo…

> NVIDIA and Apple will tell TSMC what logic gates go where (or often at an even higher level—specifying certain SRAM blocks going here or there). That's not quite how design works; it's much much more detailed. At the end of the day, TSMC's customers send them a "GDS" file that is a complete physical representation of the die they want manufactured. It describes every top-to-bottom later of the manufacturing process…

So in that case there is no materials secret sauce guarded by TSMC, with the customer either submitting the GDS file with all the info, or signing off on the modified version.

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#46
post #28
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand how they're not competitive. Staying steady while your opponent is making mistakes is, in fact, a competitive strategy — straight out of Aesop's Fables. Intel doesn't get to be the "competitive" one just because they're playing the role of the Hare.

Your example of Hare suggests Intel was sleeping. I don't think they were. And no, TSMC is staying steady no matter what. That's how they've been operating from the start - regardless of if the "opponent" is making mistakes. It's not a strategy in that sense where they're competing. They're doing their own thing and the competitors either died by themselves or failed. They're not competitive as in they aren't competi…

Competitive in economics and the market means they can provide a good at a lower price than competitors. Either TSMC has no competitors, or they are beating them. If they don’t have competitors, it’s a sign other newcomers can’t compete, so they’re still competitive.

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#47
It think I'd start by saying that TSMC hasn't historically been in the position it currently occupies and that while TSMC has a good lead, it's not like Samsung isn't close.

A big part of TSMC's current status is probably Apple. Back in 2015, TSMC was slightly behind. The iPhone 6S was dual-sourced from TSMC and Samsung with the TSMC chips being 16nm and the Samsung ones being 14nm. Intel had launched 14nm parts a year earlier.

We don't know what agreements that Apple has made with TSMC, but it seems reasonable to think that Apple made a big multi-year commitment to TSMC potentially with up-front money that TSMC could use to get to the position it now occupies. Apple's ability to commit years in advance can really change things. TSMC could confidently invest in their future without wondering "will someone pay for it?"

Samsung has been struggling a bit with its foundry and I think part of that is that companies don't want to commit to Samsung. While Qualcomm and others would like an alternative to TSMC, they're not looking to commit to Samsung. They'd rather take a wait-and-see approach, keep their options open, and bail on Samsung at the first sign of trouble. That leaves Samsung unable to make the kind of long-term planning that TSMC can. In a way, this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy since Samsung simply won't have the same commitment.

Apple decided that they wanted state-of-the-art foundry access and they chose TSMC to become that. That's not to say that TSMC isn't talented - Apple wouldn't choose a company that wasn't. It's simply to note that they have a very symbiotic relationship. Apple has the margins and commitment to pay for new advances so TSMC can confidently spend money knowing it has a guaranteed buyer at high rates. Once it has that advance, it can sell that capacity to other companies a year later at lower rates and make more money. This becomes self-reinforcing.

Now, many companies that have such a great self-reinforcing profit maker end up stumbling or resting on their laurels. Intel did. So it's not guaranteed that being the big fish means you'll continue being the big fish. TSMC seems reasonably committed to continuing to spend the money necessary to remain in its position and keep Apple happy.

Intel got taken over by bean-counters who preferred the short-term profits one could get by not investing as much in the future of their foundry. Even if you have the ability to spend money to remain competitive, that doesn't matter if you decide not to. For a while, this was fine for Intel. They were making good money, AMD was a mess, and x86/x64 was still king. Of course, not investing in the future will eventually bite any company.

With Samsung, there have been complaints from Samsung and AMD about their yields on the latest processes, but I think it's reasonable to think some of that is because Samsung can't confidently invest in new processes like TSMC can. That's not to say it isn't hard work for TSMC, but a lot of work is easier when you know it will pay off. "If you build it they will come," is sometimes true. TSMC hasn't needed to take that gamble since their Apple partnership started - Apple is guaranteed business. When we're talking about stuff that requires very long-term investments, having basically guaranteed business is a huge advantage.

TSMC has executed very well and I don't want to take that away from them. At the same time, they benefitted from an Intel run by bean-counters who wanted to milk profits from x86/x64 dominance rather than investing in their foundry and the fact that Apple doesn't want to use Samsung as much as possible and could make huge commitments years in advance.

I guess I might reframe the question: if you were Samsung, how would you remain competitive with TSMC? Sure, you can spend money, but will the customers come? Likewise, if you're Intel, the question is: how long will it take to regain our competitiveness? TSMC didn't build its company in a day. It was many years of top-notch execution. It will take Intel several years to get back on track - and it's not like TSMC will be resting during those years either.

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#48
post #33
post #9

I highly recommend browsing through the videos in Asianometrys channel if you want easily digestible summaries on this topic: https://youtube.com/@Asianometry TSMC analysis playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLKtxx9TnH76SRC7ZbOu2Nsg5m...

A recent interview with Shang-Yi Chiang, former Vice President of R&D at TSMC (also held positions at TI, HP, and SMIC) had insightful commentary on the speed of bringing up a new node. "We all take two years to develop one generation, how come you guys can do it in one or one-and-a-half year?" And they asked if some of your customer transfer technology to you or what not? And I told him, "No," I told him that, "That…

This is a made up explanation because:

1) All RnD fabs move wafers 24/7

2) Intel has consistently been the leader in process technology for 20+ years.

Why did this “3x shift advantage” deliver gains only in the past 5 years?

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#49

Semiconductor industry has the deepest and most complex value chain in the economy. TSMC has always been pure fab company and it pays off now. Samsung and Intel are also in chip design business and do other things. They are less focused. TSMC's lead is not guaranteed. Any new technology node can fail and remove them from competition if they make wrong choices. I'm not exaggerating when I say that designing a new tech…

What is a node in this context and what does designing a new node entail? Does this design process mean TSMC can do something with ASML machines that another company with the same machine couldn't do?

The interview that I posted above discusses copper interconnects that IBM research introduced.

TSMC had previously used a "spin-on" dialectic technique at a previous node, and reverted to CVD because of problems.

They were able to beat all other manufacturers to market with copper interconnects (including IBM), because they avoided spin-on, which worked well in testing, but not in production.

They had great luck in gaining this prior experience.

Re: Ask HN: Why is TSMC so competitive in semiconductor fabrication?

#50
There are multiple reasons, but the single biggest reason is: Apple

A customer that is willing and able to ramp to huge volume a small size chip (important for good yield), and even willing to ramp with relatively low yield (due to high iPhone margins).

Time to volume production is generally gated by yield for foundries, and Apple provides an intermediate target with the small mobile chips.

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