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CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

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Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#751

Post by the_third_wave »

jjoonathan wrote: post #727
the_third_wave wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's a much longer trend than 2012-2016 2012-2016 is not the period of warming, it is the period from which the warming trend changed into a cooling trend. Seen over the last century the warming trend is far longer, the most recent one starting somewhere in the beginning of the 70's until the mentioned 2012-2016 frame. After that a slight cooling period followed, taking down the temperature by 0.06°C/yr until 2022.…

Rather than doing chart astrology, do you mind digging up those radiative flux measurements?

When you ask a serious question you can expect a serious answer.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#752

Post by notJim »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #35
oriel wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really it is encouraging for advancement areas like this. Reminds me of the "revolutionary battery checklist": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28025930 edit: removed the paste of the checklist because of spam.

“No week goes by without a revolutionary battery technology” - Engadget, circa 2010

Cheap cynicism is fun, but Wh/kg has been steadily increasing since the '90s https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05/eternally-five-years...

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#753

Post by the_third_wave »

jjoonathan wrote: post #730
the_third_wave wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In order to have a scientific discussion rather than a political discussion, we need to know your intentions The truth, freed from ideology. This will be hard to achieve given the enormous amounts of money involved on all sides - from "green new deals" via trillions of € in subsidies to even larger amounts of money on the fossil-fuel-status-quo side. With politicians who have made their careers on either portraying…

> The truth, freed from ideology. The IPCC reports are one google away.

Yes, read them. The scientific reports that is, not the condensed version presented in the media. If you read them well you'll find they do not support the climate doomsday prophecies which are being bandied around. The only way to use those reports to support those is to use the long-discredited - by the IPCC itself, mind you - worst-case scenarios yet it is those which the media and politicians use to support their doom cries.

When you're done reading at least the abstracts in the IPCC reports - but it is worth the time to read the actual reports themselves - you can also read a few other sources, e.g. Schellenberger's Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All, Björn Lomborg's False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet and Steve Koonin's Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters. These give a far better view over what climate change entails and how it can be dealt with than the breathless fear-mongering as seen in the media and as spouted by politicians.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#754

Post by ggreer »

dhx wrote: post #595
bluGill wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be faster than you think, mostly because gas stations will be closing and so the inconvenience of fueling you car will cut that tail of - except for niches where EVs are particularly bad.

Spare parts and maintenance are likely going to be a problem first for ICE owners, rather than fuel availability. Who would be crazy enough now to invest in (and maintain) a factory for producing ICE-specific parts? Parts and skills for ICE will become scarcer and more expensive, making a new EV look economical to ICE owners in very short time. It has already been a few years now where it has been uneconomical not ju…

The biggest cost of producing parts is making the tooling to mass produce them. Manufactures will retool to produce other stuff once they have enough of a given part, but if there's a shortage (or they think there will be one soon) they'll bring the old tooling out of storage and set up the line again. It's common for auto companies to supply new parts for decades after a car is made.

Heck, Mazda makes new parts for the original Miata.[1] While the first generation Miata is a recognizable car, it's not very popular. A total of 433,000 were produced. Maybe half are still on the road today. That may sound like a lot, but twice as many Ford F-150s are sold every year. If it's profitable to keep making parts for 200,000 vehicles, it's going to be a long time before most ICE cars run into shortages.

1. https://news.mazdausa.com/2019-10-28-Mazda-Expands-U-S-MX-5-...

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#755

Post by bryanlarsen »

nuancebydefault wrote: post #575
bluGill wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity. Sure, if you can find fuel. By 2034 EVs will be enough of the market that gas stations are already closing (remember today new cars are 10 year old used cars, and there is every reason to think EVs will be half of all cars). There is still one on every corner, so you might not see this trend, but it will be in the statistics. By 20…

They said something similar about radios and books quite a long time ago. I'm afraid the problem of generating/transporting enough electrons to all places where cars, buses, trucks, need charging will not be solved completely within 10 years.

Turning gasoline into electrons is fairly straightforward. It doesn't make much sense for daily use, but for occasional corner cases (emergencies, backwoods, etc), it does. And corner cases are one of the big reasons people give against electric cars.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#756

Post by bryanlarsen »

omgomgomgomg wrote: post #570
bluGill wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity. Sure, if you can find fuel. By 2034 EVs will be enough of the market that gas stations are already closing (remember today new cars are 10 year old used cars, and there is every reason to think EVs will be half of all cars). There is still one on every corner, so you might not see this trend, but it will be in the statistics. By 20…

I dont see how in 10 years most cars will be evs, when the ev sales percentage is 12% as of now. Which equals to 9.5% of electric vehicles on the road today. The increase in ev sales is in the low single digits per year, the math just doesnt check out.

EV production increased by 5 million cars last year (most in China). Total ICE market is 65 million. ~10 years is a simple linear projection.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#757

Post by LeFantome »

bluGill wrote: post #439
sveme wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you should read up on what ICE bans in countries where they are implemented actually means. Hint: You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity.

> You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity. Sure, if you can find fuel. By 2034 EVs will be enough of the market that gas stations are already closing (remember today new cars are 10 year old used cars, and there is every reason to think EVs will be half of all cars). There is still one on every corner, so you might not see this trend, but it will be in the statistics. By 20…

I live in a bedroom community of a major city. There are about 25,000 people in my town and there are 7 gas stations. There could be a single station in town and it would still not be inconvenient. Some basic math implies that this one station would be as viable a business as it is today even if only 14% of the vehicles on the road use gasoline. I would be shocked if there are fewer ICE powered cars on the road than that in 2035.

I pass multiple stations when I leave town to get to work. Where I work looks like here ( home ) from a station density point of view.

For longer trips, you may be right that you may have to plan. But there could be very few ICE cars on the road before one station every 400 km ceases to be profitable. And, unlike electric, nothing is stopping me from filling up a gas can before hitting a leg I am really worried about.

I cannot see “lack of stations” being a problem for ICE for a long time.

The cost of fuel could be a thing I guess but, if demand drops faster than supply, the economics of that do not really make sense.

Also, if I am somebody that uses a vehicle “once a week”, is this really the car I am going to take on a 1500 km trip through unpopulated areas? I cannot rent or borrow an EV for that trip?

What you are suggesting seems to be that ICE vehicles are going to end up being errand vehicles for farmers, or the old truck hooked up to the boat to go fishing once a month. Or that people that live and work locally need them for the occasional errand. For the latter use case, where I live at least, just the insurance cost would incent me to replace such a vehicle with a ride share subscription even now.

I think it is going to stay viable to run an ICE vehicle for a long time yet. I also expect fewer people will want to.

This announcement has the potential to push things like Teslas to 1000 km of range. What happens when it hits 2000 ikm ( over 1300 miles ). What are you going to want to head out of town in?

10 years from now, people that can afford it will have all gone EV. People who cannot will drive their ICE until it needs a major repair. And then they are going to go EV.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#758

Post by yazaddaruvala »

oblio wrote: post #486
imiric wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Planes have a much larger surface area to carry solar panels, and they fly above clouds, so have clearer access to sunlight than cars do. Wind charging is more of a pipe dream, but there's no reason a plane couldn't glide for a period of time to get some energy back, similar to regenerative breaking. There have been experiments in both areas, and while it's certainly unfeasible today for any large aircraft, the techn…

> Planes have a much larger surface area to carry solar panels, and they fly above clouds, so have clearer access to sunlight than cars do. And the energy they require for flying is an order of magnitude than that required to drive stuff on the ground.

> And the energy they require for flying is an order of magnitude than that required to drive stuff on the ground.

Take off requires a lot of resources, but maintaining altitude and speed are likely minimal additional energy.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#759

Post by LeFantome »

mdp2021 wrote: post #227
geysersam wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would anyone want to use e-fuel in 2035 instead of electricity? (Except for "luxury" brands that just want to be special to distinguish themselves from the rabble.)

> Why would anyone want to use e-fuel in 2035 instead of electricity It will depend on their needs and if the device covers them. For example (as said already even here): long distance travel, practicality of refuelling (no, the need of some will not be fulfilled by leaving the car in charge nightly), decent technology (e.g. some will refuse to own an internet connected vehicle).

The very article you are responding to is touting energy densities that could lead to 1000 km in Teslas next year and the super chargers planned for the same time period would charge those cars in 15 mins. You do not even have to go out 5 years before “long distance travel, practicability of refueling” will favour EV owners. I just got back from a 2000 km EV road trip through the worlds second biggest country ( and one of the sparsest populated ). The longest leg between charging networks was about 300 km in the Rocky Mountains. The longest we sat at a charger was around 20 minutes. Most of that time was spent placing take-out dinner orders for the 5 of us in the car.

This is my first long trip in an EV vehicle but my wife drove about a 1000 miles through eastern Washington State a few weekends ago ( also mountains - even more remote ). She had to plan but there was certainly no risk of getting stranded. At least one of the hotels had overnight charging for free.

All this is today. These are going to be non-issues 5 years from now.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#760

Post by patja »

bagels wrote: post #2

"CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg which it says will go into mass production this year" This is a lot more credible than most of the battery stories, because CATL is already producing a ton of batteries, lending them some credibility. This is a little under 2x the density of current batteries.

It is 4x the density of the Victron LiFePO4 batteries I have on my sailboat.
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