CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg • Hacker News Board

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#641

Post by AtlasBarfed » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:16 PM UTC

theK wrote: post #110

Akronymus wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may not have a choice in the matter as more and more countries are thinking of/implementing ICE bans in the near future.

I’m afraid these bans get systematically sabotaged by well funded ice lobby groups. Just look at what happened to the EU’s ice ban for personal vehicles. Spoiler: while new gasoline burning cars are technically banned after 2035 it will be completely legal to sell new gasoline burning cars by labelling them e-fuel only…

In the 10-year timeframe it probably doesn't matter. Ev drivetrain's and batteries are going to drop well under what ICE drivetrain cost will be simply because there's just so many less components and announcements like this and the sodium ions stuff really leads out a path to that economic super advantage

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#642

Post by bluGill » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:17 PM UTC

omgomgomgomg wrote: post #570

bluGill wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity. Sure, if you can find fuel. By 2034 EVs will be enough of the market that gas stations are already closing (remember today new cars are 10 year old used cars, and there is every reason to think EVs will be half of all cars). There is still one on every corner, so you might not see this trend, but it will be in the statistics. By 20…

I dont see how in 10 years most cars will be evs, when the ev sales percentage is 12% as of now. Which equals to 9.5% of electric vehicles on the road today. The increase in ev sales is in the low single digits per year, the math just doesnt check out.

EVs are not expected to have a constant growth curve. With the expected ban of ICE EV will be the majority in a few years, and by 2034 few ICEs will be sold.

I do expect ICEs will be just under 50% of total cars, you could argue they are more like 55% of all cars, but it won't be 75%.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#643

Post by jackmott42 » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:17 PM UTC

scythe wrote: post #612

bagels wrote: post #2

"CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg which it says will go into mass production this year" This is a lot more credible than most of the battery stories, because CATL is already producing a ton of batteries, lending them some credibility. This is a little under 2x the density of current batteries.

>This is a little under 2x the density of [the best] current batteries. [brackets mine] But the best batteries contain unacceptably high levels of cobalt. Practical EV batteries are made with nickel or iron, maybe vanadium someday, and have lower density than pure LiCoO2. >CATL is already producing a ton of batteries, lending them some credibility. A couple of years ago CATL claimed that they had figured out how to m…

My EV with cobalt in the batteries seemed practical to me.

And nothing wrong with having some lithium in their battery. The important thing is how much cheaper is it.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#644

Post by nicoburns » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:17 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #601

theK wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m afraid these bans get systematically sabotaged by well funded ice lobby groups. Just look at what happened to the EU’s ice ban for personal vehicles. Spoiler: while new gasoline burning cars are technically banned after 2035 it will be completely legal to sell new gasoline burning cars by labelling them e-fuel only…

> I’m afraid these bans get systematically sabotaged by well funded ice lobby groups. They'll be sabotaged by reality. Thinking ICE cars and gas stations will become a fading memory by 2035 is wishful thinking. Politicians get big headlines and praise for proposing ICE bans and such, but as the date draws closer the reality of "OK, maybe we're not quite there yet" sets in and the date will be pushed back again and ag…

They're banning new ICE car sales in 2035: existing ones can continue to run. So the aim would be to mostly phase out ICE cars by something more like 2050-2060 (bearing in the mind the last generation of ICE cars will probably get a slightly extended lifetime to smooth the transition). That seems pretty realistic to me, perhaps with some exceptions for certain niche uses (which would probably be <5% of vehicles).

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#645

Post by hutzlibu » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:18 PM UTC

lelanthran wrote: post #624

theK wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m afraid these bans get systematically sabotaged by well funded ice lobby groups. Just look at what happened to the EU’s ice ban for personal vehicles. Spoiler: while new gasoline burning cars are technically banned after 2035 it will be completely legal to sell new gasoline burning cars by labelling them e-fuel only…

> I’m afraid these bans get systematically sabotaged by well funded ice lobby groups. Nonsense; it's just harsh reality landing on green wet-dreams. They effectively propose a ban on cheap cars, and you expected ... what, exactly? The only way they're replacing ICE vehicles is by making the EVs cheaper, and there is a limit to how high they can tax sales of ICE vehicles or fuels without a population revolt.

"The only way they're replacing ICE vehicles is by making the EVs cheaper"

Even if electric cars would be cheaper, faster and longer running - some people would rather die, than give up their ICE cars and motorcycles.

The strong lobby in germany against banning aren't the poor, but the rich who want to drive their roaring Porsche till eternity. They literally say that.

I can somewhat understand the appeal of an loud engine, the feel of the road etc., but personally I will indeed celebrate the day, all those loud polluting machines are gone from the cities and one other bright day also from the mountains.

But I am not sure if I will see that day, as cars have allmost a religious meaning to quite some people, especially here in germany, but not only here. But yes, the bigger problem in the short run will be economics. Otherwise all the old cars just will get sold to africa and go on running there. But china is mass producing cheap electric cars for example, so things are scaling up.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#646

Post by AtlasBarfed » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:18 PM UTC

omgomgomgomg wrote: post #570

bluGill wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity. Sure, if you can find fuel. By 2034 EVs will be enough of the market that gas stations are already closing (remember today new cars are 10 year old used cars, and there is every reason to think EVs will be half of all cars). There is still one on every corner, so you might not see this trend, but it will be in the statistics. By 20…

I dont see how in 10 years most cars will be evs, when the ev sales percentage is 12% as of now. Which equals to 9.5% of electric vehicles on the road today. The increase in ev sales is in the low single digits per year, the math just doesnt check out.

Another example of humans not understanding the exponential function

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#647

Post by nicoburns » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:19 PM UTC

jader201 wrote: post #579

frant-hartm wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> plenty of used ICE cars Hence plenty of customers for gas stations

I'm not so sure. I think at some point, the cost of operating gas stations will fall below a threshold that it doesn't justify keeping them open, even if there is still _some_ demand. E.g. imagine if demand were cut in half -- I think more than half of the gas stations would shut down.

It will happen, but I reckon it'll be more like 2045 than 2035 (and even then they'll still be some gas stations, just far fewer and you might have to start keeping emergency supplies with you).

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#648

Post by tshaddox » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:20 PM UTC

theK wrote: post #110

Akronymus wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may not have a choice in the matter as more and more countries are thinking of/implementing ICE bans in the near future.

I’m afraid these bans get systematically sabotaged by well funded ice lobby groups. Just look at what happened to the EU’s ice ban for personal vehicles. Spoiler: while new gasoline burning cars are technically banned after 2035 it will be completely legal to sell new gasoline burning cars by labelling them e-fuel only…

They will definitely get “sabotaged” if they turn out to not be even remotely realistic, for example if lithium production is nowhere near what it needs to be to replace all new automobile production.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#649

Post by fnordpiglet » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:20 PM UTC

hoofhearted wrote: post #629

fnordpiglet wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the age of Rube Goldberg dinosaur fumes fire machines is over and the age of Maxwells Equations is upon us. It’s sort of like college physics progression I just realized.

Do you believe that Saudi Aramco is just going throw their arms up and be like “well, the dinosaur fumes era is over everyone! Pack it up.” The two technologies of electric and combustion are going to coexist with each other. The rebirth of F1 into this new hybrid generation, as well as the new dPi hybrid prototype class will prove to you that Maxwells Equation is not close, and we breaking a new era of acceleration,…

I don’t think F1 is going to save Saudi Aramco. People don’t generally need a super racing machine. Maxwells equations delivers a simpler machine that satisfies all needs of any user beyond the most exotic. The Rube Goldberg machine is the actual death of ICE - as a manufacturer, who have much more influence on cars, why do I want to build and design these incredibly complex machines when I could dramatically simplify the entire chain of design, production, distribution, and maintenance by hosting a sled with batteries and some inductive motors. Once the scale of production reaches ICE levels the efficiencies of market will just destroy the ICE market. Making a more complex ICE for some exotic benefit for race car drivers isn’t going to shift that economics. Oil producers are way too far down the chain to have much a voice.

Re: CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg

#650

Post by throwaway22032 » Fri, Apr 21, 2023, 5:20 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #439

sveme wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you should read up on what ICE bans in countries where they are implemented actually means. Hint: You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity.

> You can continue to use the ICE vehicle you bought in 2034 in the EU until infinity. Sure, if you can find fuel. By 2034 EVs will be enough of the market that gas stations are already closing (remember today new cars are 10 year old used cars, and there is every reason to think EVs will be half of all cars). There is still one on every corner, so you might not see this trend, but it will be in the statistics. By 20…

I mean, come on.

Infinity might be a long time, but we had fuel stations when there were 25% of the cars on the road that there are now.

There are around 25-50 petrol stations within 30 mins drive of me.

There is no reason to believe that it will be impossible to fuel your car until ICE cars become collectors' items.

In the very most remote areas, maybe.