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SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

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Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#361

Post by jefftk »

sandworm101 wrote: post #309
mabbo wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not proposing something, I'm describing it. This is what SpaceX is doing , and it's quite successful. And you can look all the way back to their little hopper version of the Falcon 9 and see that this strategy has been the key to them undercutting the launch market significantly. My prediction: SpaceX will have a 5th 100% successful launch of Starship before the SLS has a 5th successful launch. They'll just have…

My point would be that while SpaceX does save lots of money, it doesn't do so by producing cheap or less reliable rockets. It would never accept a failure rate any different than anyone else because, in aerospace, that isn't really a thing. SpaceX can certainly blast forwards with different business practices and different tolerance for developmental risks, but the final product will not be fundamentally different th…

> There will never be a "cheap" version of a commercial rocket with an accepted less-than-perfect failure rate. Spaceflight is an all-or-nothing game.

Why? If you're launching people I see why you want near-perfect, but if you're launching something with a low replacement cost (ex: getting fuel to orbit to support other projects) it seems to me that as volumes get large enough eventually "use lower quality and accept a slightly higher probability of failure" starts to be cost effective.

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#362

Post by jaywalk »

kortex wrote: post #335
justin66 wrote: post #37

Did the range officer destroy the rocket because it wasn't going to separate, or did the tumble destroy the rocket?

I strongly suspect the range safety officer pulled the trigger. It did a bunch of unexpected tumbles, so I think if it were flight termination system, that would have popped it earlier. I don't think it came apart of its own account, the RUD was quite rapid.

The Flight Termination System is controlled by the Range Safety Officer. And yes, it was pretty clear from the way the two stages exploded that it was the RSO activating the FTS.

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#363

Post by CydeWeys »

shadowgovt wrote: post #180
LeonM wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not known, as SpaceX is a private company, and the rocket is still being developed. But I'd say a whole lot less than $2B per launch ;-)

You touch upon an interesting advantage that private space engineering has that, depending on one's attitude on the topic, may or may not be fair. NASA has to do everything in the public eye and their process reflects this. Private enterprise is allowed to hide information, which implies they are allowed to massage information. (... this probably says unfortunate things about the nature of governance by public sentim…

You can only massage information so far though. The costs do actually matter and you can't turn a profit if all of your launches are horrendously expensive (above what you're charging for them), and you just keep it a secret.

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#364

Post by mbernstein »

Kapura wrote: post #354
mabbo wrote: post #61

People want to see 100% success in all things. But that isn't very economical. Compare the SLS to Starship. SLS has had a 100% success rate. One launch, one success. But it costs $2B per launch (and climbing) and has taken 12 years to get here. Plus, it's stealing pieces of the Space Shuttle, which was developed in the 70s over a long period of time. Starship will launch a half a dozen "failures" before they achieve…

[flagged]

The fail fast part should be finished before humans board it - the idea is to speed up development before that milestone and iterate rapidly.

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#365

Post by kortex »

Initially posted this as a reply, but going top-level, cause the hot takes are too spicy for my liking.

So the plan was to test x, y, and z. Launch sequence and takeoff, stage separation and Starship engine light, and the post-launch stuff like booster wet landing, reentry, and heat tiles. The booster by itself is not aerodynamic, so the only way to test x is with a starship on top. And if you have starship, you might as well test y and z. But it's not a primary goal. Any more effort in polishing y and z is "premature optimization". X was the test. SpaceX did the X, we got max Q.

On the most recent SmarterEveryDay video on encasing a Prince Rupert's drop in glass, sculptor Cal Breed talks about the moment when a process fails. He could stop there and restart, saving some time, but instead all the pressure is off, and he "makes as many mistakes as possible" for the rest of the build. Quote is towards the end, but the whole vid is worth a watch.

https://youtu.be/C1KT8PS6Zs4

https://www.calbreed.com/

Edit: also, they needed the flight plan all the way through "total success" in order to file with the FAA. You can't just have "oh sweet, 100% of booster things worked, we now have a suborbital craft careening on a parabolic trajectory". I didn't read a flight plan, but I imagine they must have spelled out each possible outcome exhaustively.

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#366

Post by geocrasher »

moffkalast wrote: post #279
geocrasher wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As somebody who's never become good at KSP, I've debated whether or not to get KSP2. Does it have better training so that you have clues how to get some of the initial things done so you can build up in career mode better?

Forget KSP 2 for now, watch Scott Manley instead and you'll be good at KSP 1 in no time.

Thank you so much :)

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#367

Post by geocrasher »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #168
geocrasher wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As somebody who's never become good at KSP, I've debated whether or not to get KSP2. Does it have better training so that you have clues how to get some of the initial things done so you can build up in career mode better?

I think you should look into it in two years. Right now it’s early access, and in this case early seems to mean “first successful merge to main that builds”

Thank you so much :)

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#368

Post by foxyv »

I can't believe it made it off the pad! The fact it made it up to stage separation is crazy. That was the first flight with all the Super Heavy engines at once. I'm just blown away right now. 33 Raptor engines firing all at once without a single failure! The original hoppers had trouble running 1-3 raptors at once!

There is just so much that could go wrong with this design and they knocked it out of the park! I'm betting SpaceX is pretty freaking happy right now.

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#369

Post by Kapura »

simondotau wrote: post #6

Success was defined as the rocket leaving the launchpad. Suggesting that this test “failed” is at best a mischaracterisation.

So you're suggesting intent was to detonate the rocket in the air, despite that not having been stated anywhere?

"I may have crashed the car into the neighbour's house and broken my arm, but I did get the milk from the store!"

Re: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas

#370

Post by AviationAtom »

justin66 wrote: post #37

Did the range officer destroy the rocket because it wasn't going to separate, or did the tumble destroy the rocket?

A Wikipedia entry claims it was a commanded explosion. I hadn't yet been able to corroborate that elsewhere.
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