I was mostly agreeing with you until you starting on the technology bigotry.
> Because while the Java+IDE environment makes it extremely difficult for an individual engineer to have a 1.5+ impact –there are two cases in recorded history of programmers breaking 2.0 in Java; one is Martin Odersky, who wrote Scala, and the other is Rich Hickey, who wrote Clojure
What about people like Doug Lea and Josh Bloch? What about people like Trustin Lee? Why do these people not qualify as 'multipliers' in your framework because of their choice of technology?
The idea that using a single technology or approach - in your case a functional language and not even a functional style - would be the difference between an adder and a multiplier is simply absurd.
And then you go on to say:
> This is because the Java+IDE environment, and operating systems like Windows, are designed to bring up the rear (0.7 to 0.9) while holding back the best programmers, artificially imposing that “ceiling” around 1.2-1.5
You have now introduced a definition which implies that the designers behind projects like the Windows kernel, MSSQL, and Kinect are a lower level of programmers because of the technology they use or the company they chose to work for. What about many of the really useful sites and services that are served from Windows (or Java running on Windows, gasp!) or the innovative and world-changing pieces of software which are primarily developed for Windows? Excluding all the people behind those from being upper levels seems like a stretch.
> these technologies are intentionally designed for a performance-middling effect– to make it possible for huge teams of “commodity” developers to produce something while holding the excellent back from producing great things.
This is the core of my problem with your argument. I can think of many more things I would call great that used technologies like C++, Java and Windows than used technologies like Lisp, Scala and Clojure.
> Functional programming is a shibboleth of good (1.5+) engineers because it's usually what they first learn as they break through the 1.2 ceiling observed in Javaland (since Java and enterprise programming actively work to prevent people from having multiplier effects).
You are simply wrong about this. There are many marks of a good engineer. An interest in different programming paradigms is one of them, for sure. To call functional programming a 'shibboleth of good engineers' seems to exclude too many people I would call good engineers to be a good or even useful measure. I would go as far as to say that, for above average programmers, interest in and use of functional programming is orthogonal to their contribution and skill.
I have been lucky enough in my career to work with many great engineers, leaders in their fields, who have chosen to use the technologies you deride and are therefore forever stuck at the lower levels of your hierarchy because of those choices.
(On the other hand, I may have just fed the troll).