Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think LLMs are over [0]. I think we're relatively close to a local optimum in terms of what can be achieved with current algorithms. But I think OpenAI is at least as likely as any other player to create the next paradigm, and that it's at least as likely as likely as any other player to develop the leading models within the next paradigm regardless of who actually publishes the research. Separately, I think…
It already is relatively trivial to fine-tune generative models for various use cases. Which implies huge gains to be had with targeted applications not just for niche players but also OpenAI and others to either build that fine-tuning into the base system, build ecosystems around it, or just purpose build applications on top.
Especially as a differentiation for a company. If everyone is using ChatGPT, then they're all offering the same thing and I can just as well go to the source and cut out the middleman.
The other fun development to come is well performing self hosted models, and the idea of light weight domain specific interface models that curate responses from bigger generalist models.
ChatGPT is fun but it is very general, it doesn't know about my business nor keep track of it or interface with it. I fully expect to see "Expert Systems" of old come back, but trained on our specific businesses.