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What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

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Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#11
post #5
post #3

Always take everything that politicians, corporate executives, Twitter talking heads, and other public figures say about macroeconomics at face value, especially if it sounds alarmist . Lately many of them have been saying that "the US is in decline," "the dollar's dominance is ending," "a new currency block is emerging," etc. Usually, like most people, they don't understand macroeconomics. They may be parroting some…

Poe's law: "Without a winking smiley or other blatant display of humor, it is utterly impossible to parody in such a way that someone won't mistake for a genuine article." I cannot tell if you are serious or joking. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law

Not a joke. But I can see why someone might think it is :-)

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#12
the Dollar "rules" by virtue of being the least dirty shirt in the laundry bin

the Euro made a run at greatness twenty years ago but never gained traction

Japan doesn't have its hooks into petro-politics

China will try next and may succeed with the Yuan but only through conflict

what Cowen isn't telling you is that it won't take that many US dollars washing back to our shores to create serous inflation...just having BRICs migrate off of it for some transactions may very well result in dollars with no place to go come home with nothing to do but inflate things

as for the debt ceiling, we might as well just scrap it

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#13
post #7

I'm having trouble understanding the authors point, it's not explained in much detail. Feels like an economist saying "This is a strong American dollar. You can tell it's strong by the way it is.." Why are closed-capital markets in China a sign of a strong American dollar?

[flagged]

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#14
post #8

>If there is any danger here, it is that the forthcoming debate in Washington over the debt ceiling somehow results in a US default This, I do not understand why the GOP goes nuts over the debt limit. If they blow it this year, inflation worries we have now will seem quaint. If China was not gaming their currency and had a real open economy, that would be a possible alternative. But with Xi in power, it will never ha…

Seeing as how the debt ceiling is only a problem for the GOP when they're not in power should tell you all you need as to why the debt ceiling is an "issue".

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#15
To explain this in a way that people on this forum will understand: A currency relies on network effects. The dollar is kind of like twitter. It doesn't matter how much it fucks up, network effects ensure it's continuing dominance.

Actually the dominance of a currency is harder to challenge, since you can post the same text on both twitter and mastodon, but you can't invest the same money in both dollars and euros.

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#16
The reserve currency isn't where power lies.

It's convenient (at most) for people in the USA to have the dollar as the de facto reserve currency. It's also convenient for people outside the US to have a dominant reserve currency -- having a small number larger than 1 would be OK, but not especially convenient and in the end would still converge back to the largest one, which would be the incumbent.

The convenience for the US is simply that if you do any foreign transactions you can easily see their value. Also, domestically, if you borrow you have a lot of predictability in interest rates. That's basically it.

If you are, say, Australian and use aussie dollars the same is basically true! If you're a very small country, or your economy is a basket case and there is no real lending in your currency then the reserve currency doesn't help you much -- you have to borrow in some foreign currency so currency fluctuations hurt can hurt (or help) you, and you have no control over it.

The USD is a good choice because foreign exchange is a small part of the size of the total amount of money, and the amount doesn't fluctuate a lot. It might feel like it does when you live in the states, but really it's like swimming in the ocean: there's some surface chop, but the big waves have such long wavelength you don't even notice them.

The real power is in control of the banking forex interchanges -- you can see them being used against Russia and Norks, for example. In reality the US doesn't really have a lot of control over them except by persuading other important economies to go along. It's like a very weak form of nuclear weapons: their value comes from not using them. And for forex -- well let's just say the US control over that is negligible, specifically because it's the reserve currency. So not much of a weapon at all.

It's pretty easy to not use the dollar as an exchange currency -- think of hawala, with perhaps, say, its own private set of AED/PKR exchange rates (notice the plural!). Or china and iran selling oil without the dollar. These work for small sums, but at the end of the day people work out the exchange rates...by comparing vs dollars, the same way a translation between Maltese and Estonian probably goes through English or French. This is why having more than one will regress back to the incumbent barring a major, and very slow (decades/centuries scale), problem.

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#18

To explain this in a way that people on this forum will understand: A currency relies on network effects. The dollar is kind of like twitter. It doesn't matter how much it fucks up, network effects ensure it's continuing dominance. Actually the dominance of a currency is harder to challenge, since you can post the same text on both twitter and mastodon, but you can't invest the same money in both dollars and euros.

To continue your analogy: the two major competitors also have serious flaws. The Euro is like Mastodon. Its decentralized leadership prevents it from offering the features and convenience of Twitter. The Chinese Yuan is like Truth Social. Tight restrictions on what you can do there mean it is not a useful alternative for most people.

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#19
post #7

I'm having trouble understanding the authors point, it's not explained in much detail. Feels like an economist saying "This is a strong American dollar. You can tell it's strong by the way it is.." Why are closed-capital markets in China a sign of a strong American dollar?

They are not a sign of a strong American dollar. They are a roadblock that limits the yuan's usefulness for anyone outside of China.

Re: What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World

#20
post #12

the Dollar "rules" by virtue of being the least dirty shirt in the laundry bin the Euro made a run at greatness twenty years ago but never gained traction Japan doesn't have its hooks into petro-politics China will try next and may succeed with the Yuan but only through conflict what Cowen isn't telling you is that it won't take that many US dollars washing back to our shores to create serous inflation...just having…

> China will try next and may succeed with the Yuan but only through conflict

Nobody can tell the future, but I don't think it's looking good for the CNY. Xi Jinping's unprecedented (since Mao Zedong's demise almost 50 years ago, at any rate) third term coupled with every indication that he's going to try and hold on to power for life presents a bearish picture on the long-term stability of the country and its currency.

Many successful Chinese people have a foot out the door already, sending their children abroad and transferring as much wealth out as they can given capital controls. Xi's own daughter went to school in the US. And the demographics are not in favor of the supposed eventual supremacy of the CNY over the USD.

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