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Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

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Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#431

Post by p1esk »

ben_w wrote: post #238
pera wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> convince gullible investors that there's money to be made with foundational models. There's not. This is a ridiculously myopic statement. Foundation models are an extremely powerful technological advancement and they will shake the global economy as very few things did in human history. It's hard to imagine how this is not obvious to everyone right now, specially here in this forum.

None of which means the money will go to the people making the models. The game theory logic doesn't care about the labels "OpenAI" or "Anthropic" or any of the others, it's the same if you switch it around arbitrarily, but this is easier to write about if I focus on one of them: At some point, someone will reproduce GPT-3.5 and ChatGPT, given how much is known about them. When that happens, OpenAI can't make any sig…

DALLE2 is boring because pretty much everyone at OpenAI has been busy developing the next GPT model. It was simply not a priority for them. And when GPT4 leaks (or is reproduced) they will most likely have GPT5. In this race it’s far more important to be the closest to AGI than to make money now.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#432

Post by drexlspivey »

boeingUH60 wrote: post #79
xena wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main reason why companies don't allow NSFW content is because of puritan payment processors that see that stuff and then go absolute sicko mode and lock people out of the traditional finance system.

It's because NSFW content has higher risks of chargeback and fraud (there's a reason their payment processors charge 20%+). Besides, companies don't want to be on the bad side of outrage; it only takes one mistake of processing a payment for child pornography and your name will be plastered everywhere as a child porn enabler. Do you really think the execs at Visa and Mastercard are puritans and not profiteering capit…

> Do you really think the execs at Visa and Mastercard are puritans and not profiteering capitalists that will process payments for NSFW content if they were able to?

Pornhub was blocked by Visa and Mastercard after an op-ed in NYT generated a lot of outrage

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#433

Post by rnk »

gregbander wrote: post #430
mike_hearn wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were Apple I'd be thinking about the following issues with that strategy: 1. That RAM isn't empty, it's being used by apps and the OS. Fill up 64GB of RAM with an LLM and there's nothing left for anything else. 2. 64GB probably isn't enough for competitive LLMs anyway. 3. Inferencing is extremely energy intensive, but the MacBook / Apple Silicon brand is partly about long battery life. 4. Weights are expensive t…

Chips have a 5-7 year lead time. Apple has been shipping neural chips for years while everyone else is still designing their v1. Apple is ahead of the game for a change getting their chips in line as the software exits alpha and goes mainstream.

But they haven't exposed them to use. They are missing a tremendous opportunity. They have that unique unified memory model on the m1/m2 arms so they have something no other consumer devices have. If they exposed their neural chips they'd solidify their lead. They could sell a lot more hardware.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#434

Post by gleenn »

mike_hearn wrote: post #313
anentropic wrote: post #288

If Apple would wake up to what's happening with llama.cpp etc then I don't see such a market in paying for remote access to big models via API, though it's currently the only game in town. Currently a Macbook has a Neural Engine that is sitting idle 99% of the time and only suitable for running limited models (poorly documented, opaque rules about what ops can be accelerated, a black box compiler [1] and an apparent…

If I were Apple I'd be thinking about the following issues with that strategy: 1. That RAM isn't empty, it's being used by apps and the OS. Fill up 64GB of RAM with an LLM and there's nothing left for anything else. 2. 64GB probably isn't enough for competitive LLMs anyway. 3. Inferencing is extremely energy intensive, but the MacBook / Apple Silicon brand is partly about long battery life. 4. Weights are expensive t…

iPhones have similar Neural Engine capabilities, obviously far more limited but still quite powerful. You can run some pretty cool DNNs for image generation using e.g. Draw Things app quite quickly: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/draw-things-ai-generation/id64...

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#435

Post by gleenn »

rnk wrote: post #433
gregbander wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chips have a 5-7 year lead time. Apple has been shipping neural chips for years while everyone else is still designing their v1. Apple is ahead of the game for a change getting their chips in line as the software exits alpha and goes mainstream.

But they haven't exposed them to use. They are missing a tremendous opportunity. They have that unique unified memory model on the m1/m2 arms so they have something no other consumer devices have. If they exposed their neural chips they'd solidify their lead. They could sell a lot more hardware.

They are though. Apple released a library to use Apple Silicon for training via PyTorch recently, and has libraries to leverage the NE in CoreML.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#436

Post by deeviant »

audunw wrote: post #83
omneity wrote: post #3

4 years ?!? That’s like a century in AI-dog years. Who knows how the world will be by then.

AI seems to progress in bursts, and I think we're in the middle of one, but it may be naive to think the progress will continue at the same pace for another 4 years. When Big Blue beat Kasparov in Chess in 1997, I wonder if anyone would've guessed that it'd take almost 20 years for a computer to beat a master in Go. IBM Watson was launched in 2010 and had many of the same promises as GPT. It supposedly fell flat in m…

> AI seems to progress in bursts

Historically yes. Today, no way. It's a sprint and it's not slowing down.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#438

Post by rnk »

mike_hearn wrote: post #313
anentropic wrote: post #288

If Apple would wake up to what's happening with llama.cpp etc then I don't see such a market in paying for remote access to big models via API, though it's currently the only game in town. Currently a Macbook has a Neural Engine that is sitting idle 99% of the time and only suitable for running limited models (poorly documented, opaque rules about what ops can be accelerated, a black box compiler [1] and an apparent…

If I were Apple I'd be thinking about the following issues with that strategy: 1. That RAM isn't empty, it's being used by apps and the OS. Fill up 64GB of RAM with an LLM and there's nothing left for anything else. 2. 64GB probably isn't enough for competitive LLMs anyway. 3. Inferencing is extremely energy intensive, but the MacBook / Apple Silicon brand is partly about long battery life. 4. Weights are expensive t…

I've been looking into buy a mac for llm experimentation - 64, 96 or 128gb of ram? I'm trying to decide if 64gb is enough, or should I go to 96gb or even 128gb. But it's really expensive - even for an overpaid software engineer. Then there's the 1 or 2 tb storage question. Apple list price is another $400 for that second tb of storage.

For 64gb of ram, you can get an m2 pro, or get 96gb which requires the upgraded cpu on the pro. The studio does 64gb or 128gb. But the 128 requires you to spend 5k.

I can't decide between 64 or 96 on m2 pro, and 128 on the studio. Probably go for 96gb. Also what's the impact of the extra gpu cores on the various options? And there are still some "m1" 64gb pros & studios out there. What's the perf difference for m1 vs m2? This area needs serious perf benchmarking. If anyone wants to work with me, maybe I would try my hand. But I'm not spending 15k just to get 3 pieces of hardware.

List prices:

64gb/2tb m2 12cpu/30gpu 14" pro $3900

96gb/2tb m2 max 12/38 14" pro $4500

128gb/2tb m2 max 28/48 studio $5200

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#439

Post by rvba »

alberth wrote: post #98

Google invested $400M into Anthropic https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34663438 Investors include: - Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO/Chairman), Series A - Sam Bankman-Fried, lead investor in Series B - Caroline Ellison, Series B https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34664963

If Google invests money into this and then this company uses Google cloud to compute, then does the money really outflow of Google much? Everything stays in the family, but in theory they can have an investment that works.

Also listing Sam Bankman-Fried does not help much, especially for a company hyping itself to be 10x better than a working competitor. I mean, since they built the competitor, probably their second project can be better, but it is a pie in the sky in many ways.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#440

Post by scotty79 »

deeviant wrote: post #436
audunw wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI seems to progress in bursts, and I think we're in the middle of one, but it may be naive to think the progress will continue at the same pace for another 4 years. When Big Blue beat Kasparov in Chess in 1997, I wonder if anyone would've guessed that it'd take almost 20 years for a computer to beat a master in Go. IBM Watson was launched in 2010 and had many of the same promises as GPT. It supposedly fell flat in m…

> AI seems to progress in bursts Historically yes. Today, no way. It's a sprint and it's not slowing down.

It's fueled by raw gpus and servers and pretty much nothing else. GPT is pretty much perceptron with some places hardcoded. Resources bound to run out at some point.
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