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Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

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Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> switch to something more modern such as?

I would be very surprised if something based on Blockchain or similar software doesn't offer a solution here. Another route would be to establish a protocol for near instantaneous bank transfers, and try to get a lot of banks on board. The immediacy of transfers seems to be the main reason why companies use credit card services, not buyer protection or actual credit.

PayPal?

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#262
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They do not have any graphics rendering circuitry. What? Not having a display output is not the same as not having graphics rendering circuitry. Here's vulkaninfo from an A100 box: https://gist.github.com/eiz/c1c3e1bd99341e11e8a4acdee7ae4cb4

This may not contradict what I said. Do you know for a fact these things are implemented using dedicated hardware? Edit: I do not see a rasterizer anywhere in the block diagram (pg 14): https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-genomics-ep/ampere-archit... Look at Turing's block diagram here (pg 20): https://images.nvidia.com/aem-dam/en-zz/Solutions/design-vis... You can clearly see that the "Raster Engine" and "PolyMorph E…

Fair enough. In the GH100 architecture doc https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-tensor-core/gtc22-whitepa... (page 18) they do mention retaining 2 graphics-capable TPCs but it's clearly not the focus.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> switch to something more modern such as?

I would be very surprised if something based on Blockchain or similar software doesn't offer a solution here. Another route would be to establish a protocol for near instantaneous bank transfers, and try to get a lot of banks on board. The immediacy of transfers seems to be the main reason why companies use credit card services, not buyer protection or actual credit.

I have no particular love of legacy systems (whether they be banks, imperialism, or Electoral Colleges), but what about your comment is plausible given the widespread recognition that blockchain technologies have been oversold, leading to widespread fraud and failure?

Maybe I’m missing something, but the above comment reminds me of the blockchain naïveté of 10 years ago. I don’t mean to be dismissive; I’m suspending disbelief long enough to ask what you mean in detail.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#264
post #73
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The counter argument is that it's a growing market where any early entrants will be lifted with the tide and can probably yield enough profit from spillover hype for investors to make their investments back.

I can already run gpt4xalpaca on my PC, a model that is not-bad-at-all and is completely uncensored (i.e. does things that chatGPT can't do). I think it's true that LLMs are racing to the bottom and will be even more once they can fit as a peripheral to every computer. whoever is investing in this to monopolize has not thought it through

Yeah but with very simple tasks with the 2k tokens limit. Let alone the fact that it can't access the internet, or have more powerful extensions (say Wolfram).

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is not an argument for crypto, it's an argument for better regulations so that processors don't make up their own rules. Better (which I assume is your euphemism for "more") regulation isn't neceesarily the answer, or even particularly the answer. Do you want to force payment processors to do work they don't want to do? Isn't there a word for that?

Authoritarian solutions are very attractive today.

Reasonably regulating payment processors is far from authoritarian.

If you are on a scale like Visa and MasterCard you're not just any private company anymore. Just those 2 companies control well over 75% of the US market alone. Not having access to a debit/credit card today will effectively block you from taking part in many aspects of modern life. It's absolutely reasonable to place stipulations on what they can and cannot do.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> switch to something more modern such as?

I would be very surprised if something based on Blockchain or similar software doesn't offer a solution here. Another route would be to establish a protocol for near instantaneous bank transfers, and try to get a lot of banks on board. The immediacy of transfers seems to be the main reason why companies use credit card services, not buyer protection or actual credit.

> The immediacy of transfers seems to be the main reason why companies use credit card services, not buyer protection or actual credit.

I think the above is quite wrong (with moderate confidence). Is the above claim consistent with survey data? It is my understanding that:

1. companies care a lot about risk reduction. This includes protection from chargebacks.

2. companies benefit when customers have credit: it enables more spending and can smooth out ups and downs in individual purchasing ability

3. Yes, quick transfers matter, but not in isolation from the above two.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be very surprised if something based on Blockchain or similar software doesn't offer a solution here. Another route would be to establish a protocol for near instantaneous bank transfers, and try to get a lot of banks on board. The immediacy of transfers seems to be the main reason why companies use credit card services, not buyer protection or actual credit.

PayPal?

No PayPal is basically a credit card company. It is an intermediary which gives short credits in order to achieve near instantaneous payments. And extracts fees along the way.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#268
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, this is just the beginning. Just wait till we get actual scifi robots in the next year or so. FWIW, I do find that Claude (Anthropic's GPT) is often better than GPT4 -- and very fast. Entrants can compete on price, safety, quality, etc.

I find that Claude is more conversational (better fine tuning), but not as smart as even ChatGPT. Prompt: The original titles and release years in the Harry Potter series are: Philosopher's Stone (1997) Chamber of Secrets (1998) Prisoner of Azkaban (1999) Goblet of Fire (2000) Order of the Phoenix (2003) Half-Blood Prince (2005) Deathly Hallows (2007) Given this, generate a new Harry Potter title, using only the word…

ChatGPT is more comparable to what Quora/Poe calls Claude+ - slower/more expensive/smarter. Claude-instant is closer to GPT-turbo in that tradeoff space.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#269
post #37

AI models are in a race to the bottom and everybody inside Anthropic knows it. Besides OpenAI, with billions to spend plus a partnership with MS, there's also Google, Apple, Meta and Amazon who can afford to run losses on AI for years without blinking an eye. And if that wasn't enough the Open Source world is releasing new models almost weekly now, for free. Anthropic is putting on a big show to convince gullible inv…

Truth is, and this applies to all companies regardless of size, is that you don't have to be first, best, biggest, fastest, or most well-known in order to win market share that out-paces your investment. The AI pie is going to be very, very big. To estimate this size, let's take McKinseys rough estimates of job displacement (~30% of ~60% of jobs, ~20% of work) and use that to estimate the actualized [US, apologies] G…

These studies seem to be largely focused on job displacement. There is is a reasonable likelihood that AI grows the overall economy.

I think we forget that our perspective of AI now is comparative, probably to that of a preindustrial worker worried about machines. Displacement, sure but complete replacement seems a non nuanced view of how it may all turn out.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> switch to something more modern such as?

Unified payments interface: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Payments_Interface

Wow, this seems to be just what I meant. Unfortunately it appears it is so far only widely supported by Indian banks. (In Germany there is a similar system, called GiroPay, but it hasn't really caught on yet. And it isn't even intended as an international solution.)
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