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Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

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Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#231

Post by Hermitian909 »

MagicMoonlight wrote: post #221

It really puts into perspective how much of a meme economy we live in. I just read an article that says global lithium will be worth 15bn a year in 2030 when we're at peak battery demand. This company is planning to spend 1bn just this year in order to run some numbers through someone else's algorithm. People have given them 1bn in cash for that. Clearly it's all bullshit. There's no way they need that much and someb…

It's worth remembering that:

1. A business's value is related to profits or potential profits. If I put a dollar in, how many do I get out? What's the maximum number of dollars I can put in?

2.The farther away you are from an end customer, the lower your profits tend to be unless you have a moat or demand for your product is inelastic.

Lithium is far from customers and while demand for cheap lithium is high there are lots of applications that will opt for some other way to provide power if the price gets too high.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#232

Post by sdwr »

MagicMoonlight wrote: post #221

It really puts into perspective how much of a meme economy we live in. I just read an article that says global lithium will be worth 15bn a year in 2030 when we're at peak battery demand. This company is planning to spend 1bn just this year in order to run some numbers through someone else's algorithm. People have given them 1bn in cash for that. Clearly it's all bullshit. There's no way they need that much and someb…

The $ is distributed sovereignty - there's a constant tension between value per dollar, and money as denoting hierarchy. Did Louis XIV provide value equivalent to all those diamonds?

And AI is delivering on a lot of different planes right now. This shit is real on a practical and spiritual level. It's not every day that we get to participate in giving birth to a new form of life.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#234

Post by psychlops »

robertlagrant wrote: post #175
mschild wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not an argument for crypto, it's an argument for better regulations so that processors don't make up their own rules.

> This is not an argument for crypto, it's an argument for better regulations so that processors don't make up their own rules. Better (which I assume is your euphemism for "more") regulation isn't neceesarily the answer, or even particularly the answer. Do you want to force payment processors to do work they don't want to do? Isn't there a word for that?

Authoritarian solutions are very attractive today.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#235

Post by reubenmorais »

programmer_dude wrote: post #15
Havoc wrote: post #6

>“tens of thousands of GPUs.” I find the focus on GPUs a little odd. I would have thought that at 5 billion / 4 year scale ASIC route would be the way to go GPUs presumably come with a lot of unneeded stuff to play crysis etc

There are AI / datacenter focused GPUs (like the A100, H100 etc.). They do not have any graphics rendering circuitry.

They do have graphics rendering circuitry, but e.g. fewer shading units and more graphics memory, or support for faster interconnects. You can look up the specs and compare. The differences are varied, but IMO not enough to claim they're not GPUs anymore. Even gaming focused GPUs are GPGPUs these days: the RTX 4090 has as many Tensor Core units as the A100. And you can still use e.g. DirectX, OpenGL with a datacenter grade GPU.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#236

Post by phillipcarter »

dTal wrote: post #190
dr_dshiv wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, this is just the beginning. Just wait till we get actual scifi robots in the next year or so. FWIW, I do find that Claude (Anthropic's GPT) is often better than GPT4 -- and very fast. Entrants can compete on price, safety, quality, etc.

I find that Claude is more conversational (better fine tuning), but not as smart as even ChatGPT. Prompt: The original titles and release years in the Harry Potter series are: Philosopher's Stone (1997) Chamber of Secrets (1998) Prisoner of Azkaban (1999) Goblet of Fire (2000) Order of the Phoenix (2003) Half-Blood Prince (2005) Deathly Hallows (2007) Given this, generate a new Harry Potter title, using only the word…

I find the opposite, claude-instant seems to generally give me better results for my use case. FWIW gpt-3.5-turbo is good too, just not quite as good.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#237

Post by menzoic »

rebolek wrote: post #84
dpflan wrote: post #44

"Dario Amodei, the former VP of research at OpenAI, launched Anthropic in 2021 as a public benefit corporation, taking with him a number of OpenAI employees, including OpenAI’s former policy lead Jack Clark. Amodei split from OpenAI after a disagreement over the company’s direction, namely the startup’s increasingly commercial focus." So Anthropic is the Google-supported equivalent of OpenAI? Isn't the founder going…

There may have been a disagreement, but now they're focused on profit, as everybody else. From the same article: “Anthropic has been heavily focused on research for the first year and a half of its existence, but we have been convinced of the necessity of commercialization, which we fully committed to in September [2022],” the pitch deck reads. “We’ve developed a strategy for go-to-market and initial product speciali…

Its not about making money, its about opening up the tech to the public (including source, weights...etc)

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#238

Post by ben_w »

pera wrote: post #144
rsp1984 wrote: post #37

AI models are in a race to the bottom and everybody inside Anthropic knows it. Besides OpenAI, with billions to spend plus a partnership with MS, there's also Google, Apple, Meta and Amazon who can afford to run losses on AI for years without blinking an eye. And if that wasn't enough the Open Source world is releasing new models almost weekly now, for free. Anthropic is putting on a big show to convince gullible inv…

> convince gullible investors that there's money to be made with foundational models. There's not. This is a ridiculously myopic statement. Foundation models are an extremely powerful technological advancement and they will shake the global economy as very few things did in human history. It's hard to imagine how this is not obvious to everyone right now, specially here in this forum.

None of which means the money will go to the people making the models.

The game theory logic doesn't care about the labels "OpenAI" or "Anthropic" or any of the others, it's the same if you switch it around arbitrarily, but this is easier to write about if I focus on one of them:

At some point, someone will reproduce GPT-3.5 and ChatGPT, given how much is known about them. When that happens, OpenAI can't make any significant profit from it. GPT-4 might remain sufficiently secret to avoid that, but the history of tech leaks and hacks suggests it too will become public, but even if it does itself remain behind closed doors, there is a further example in that DALL•E 2 is now the boring 3rd horse in the race between Stable Diffusion and Midjourney, and the same may happen with the GPT-series of LLMs.

The models leaking or being superseded by others implies profit going to increased productivity in the general economy without investors getting a share.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#240

Post by jiggywiggy »

MagicMoonlight wrote: post #221

It really puts into perspective how much of a meme economy we live in. I just read an article that says global lithium will be worth 15bn a year in 2030 when we're at peak battery demand. This company is planning to spend 1bn just this year in order to run some numbers through someone else's algorithm. People have given them 1bn in cash for that. Clearly it's all bullshit. There's no way they need that much and someb…

They can probably only get so much because they worked on chat gpt. It gives an idea of the huge value of chatgpt in the valuation of investors.
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