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Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

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Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#82
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main reason why companies don't allow NSFW content is because of puritan payment processors that see that stuff and then go absolute sicko mode and lock people out of the traditional finance system.

This comment right here can be shown to snobs who still denounce crypto btw

This is not an argument for crypto, it's an argument for better regulations so that processors don't make up their own rules.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#83
post #3

4 years ?!? That’s like a century in AI-dog years. Who knows how the world will be by then.

AI seems to progress in bursts, and I think we're in the middle of one, but it may be naive to think the progress will continue at the same pace for another 4 years.

When Big Blue beat Kasparov in Chess in 1997, I wonder if anyone would've guessed that it'd take almost 20 years for a computer to beat a master in Go.

IBM Watson was launched in 2010 and had many of the same promises as GPT. It supposedly fell flat in many cases in the real world. I think GPT and other models of the same level can succeed commercially on the same tasks within the next 1-4 years, but that shows it can easily be a decade from some kind of demonstration to actual game changing applications.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#84
post #44

"Dario Amodei, the former VP of research at OpenAI, launched Anthropic in 2021 as a public benefit corporation, taking with him a number of OpenAI employees, including OpenAI’s former policy lead Jack Clark. Amodei split from OpenAI after a disagreement over the company’s direction, namely the startup’s increasingly commercial focus." So Anthropic is the Google-supported equivalent of OpenAI? Isn't the founder going…

There may have been a disagreement, but now they're focused on profit, as everybody else. From the same article:

“Anthropic has been heavily focused on research for the first year and a half of its existence, but we have been convinced of the necessity of commercialization, which we fully committed to in September [2022],” the pitch deck reads. “We’ve developed a strategy for go-to-market and initial product specialization that fits with our core expertise, brand and where we see adoption occurring over the next 12 months.”

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#85
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The counter argument is that it's a growing market where any early entrants will be lifted with the tide and can probably yield enough profit from spillover hype for investors to make their investments back.

> can probably yield enough profit from spillover hype for investors to make their investments back. The correct term for this is “pyramid scheme”.

No, this is more "everyone is selling X, let's get in the business of X". On the other hand, yes, some will miss the boat and lose money.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know you said no details, but can you at least share a little bit more about Claude LLM's code generation?

There is a language with massive usage in the enterprise but with very few (if any) high quality code examples on the public internet. When given a broad task, GPT4 doesn’t just write incorrect code, it tries to do entire categories of things the language literally cannot do because of the ecosystem it runs inside. Claude does a much better job writing usable code, but more importantly it does NOT tell you to do thin…

That makes sense. My brother, who has been coding since 1990 and worked his entire career in boring Fortune 500 companies, was wholly unimpressed by chatGPT. It failed pretty miserably whenever he threw any old tech stack at it.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#87
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment right here can be shown to snobs who still denounce crypto btw

This is not an argument for crypto, it's an argument for better regulations so that processors don't make up their own rules.

Well you can wait a lifetime or you can take control away from them with a couple clicks. The choice is obvious.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#88
post #52
post #35

If someone released a chatGPT/characterAI with NSFW content enabled it would eat into a big share of their users (and for characterAI, maybe take all of them). Seriously, look into what people are posting about when it comes to characterAI, and it's 80% "here's how to get around NSFW filters". Unsure why nobody is taking this very very obvious hole in AI tech.

It's trivial to fine tune llamma to be NSFW if that's what you want. But there's an entire universe of much more interesting apps that people don't want NSFW stuff in. That's why most foundation models filter it out.

the point is though the market potential is huge. and it would be a way to grow fast with cash flow. as a side effect you would probably develop the best NSFW filter in the world also.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#89
post #77

If its THE exponential curve of AGI, every day not invested, will result in years behind in a few months. So these are rather small investments, but still bigger then the "to little to late" of the european union. Its not very visual or intuitive, but in some games, were the resource curve is exponential, small early headstarts become whole armies, were the opponent fields none in very short time. Especially as AGI i…

The real limiting factor of AGI is not going to be AGI -- it's going to be everything else. Digitization of the last mile (instrumentation, feedback), local networking, local compute, business familiarity with technology, standardized processes, regulatory environment, etc. AGI will happen when it happens. But if it happens and an economy doesn't have all the enabling prerequisites, it's not going to have time to dev…

It's already here, it's just weak.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#90
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a bit early to tell, isn't it? If we get more unexpected emergent abilities by scaling the model further, things could get very interesting indeed.

Would you rather? invest in super intelligent AGI or NOT invest in super intelligent AGI. Especially if one of those emergent abilities is deciding your either with me or against me..lol

That would be the AI version of Pascal's Wager [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager

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