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Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

thestrategybridge.org

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Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It wouldn't still be mandatory reading at war colleges the world over if it didn't still have merit, or if it had no merit to begin with. Spoken like someone with absolutely no idea how mandatory reading is chosen.

Okay let us suppose there are three probable reasons for such a book to be chosen as mandatory reading: because it is right, because it is wrong, or because it is historically important as a landmark in the history of military thought. I believe it is the first of those three. Many books have been written since that are now outdated, while The Art of War is not.

> let us suppose there are three probable reasons for such a book to be chosen as mandatory reading: because it is right, because it is wrong, or because it is historically important as a landmark in the history of military thought.

You might have better luck with some actual reasons. Assuming you're right and then complaining that nobody believes you even though your assumptions plainly show that you're right isn't going to make you sound any more credible.

Here's an article noting that UK water companies use divination to locate underground pipes: https://sallylepage.medium.com/in-2017-uk-water-companies-st...

Which of these would you say is most likely accurate?

1. The water companies use dowsing because dowsing works.

2. The water companies use dowsing because dowsing doesn't work.

3. Whether dowsing works or not is not a factor in why water companies use it.

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#32
post #6

There is a reason people still read Sun Tzu 2500 years later, and it's not because he's been on a press tour promoting his book. The man was a consummate master of his art, if he was indeed one man. My favorite reading of The Art of War, because Baldermort has an awesome voice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDlW3WqXisM

People still read Sun Tzu 2500 years later because its (1) not protected by copyright (2) easy to read and (3) free marketing since it's titled "The Art of War". At the very minimum, 10% of teenage boys of every generation are going to buy this thing. The reality is that most of it has a very "buy low, sell high" quality: generally obvious, but difficult to apply.

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#33
post #4

From what little I know Sun Tzu has a lot of "good rule od thumb" wisdom but you shouldn't stick to what he says as if he is infallible. For example: > The greatest victory is that which requires no battle He says a lot of stuff like that but this is only true if your aim is peace in the near term and appearances of victory. The carnage of war, the worse it is the more it avoids even more war. If you win without batt…

The counterarguments to the "total war" doctrine are nuclear deterrence and asymmetric warfare. Total war is the correct way to win a symmetric war against an opponent you can actually defeat. But nuclear deterrence creates big incentives to not ever bother. Everybody loses from unrestricted warfare between nuclear powers.

Asymmetric warfare is destined to outlast the will of the attacker to maintain totally war, and to continue long after the attacker has started to become war-weary. IMHO, winning an asymmetric war against a sufficiently motivated opponent is only possible by engaging in genocide and large scale population relocations.

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#34
This is a weirdly specific complaint that imho makes far too much of the 'death ground' thing. Sun Tzu certainly talks about this on several occasions, but he doesn't present it as an ideal; it's for when you don't have other good tactical or strategic choices and you have to go all in. The western equivalent is 'burning you boats' to emphasize (to your own and perhaps to opposing forces) that you are fully committed.

The first chapter of AoW is about estimates; of your capabilities, of your situation, of the terrain. Of course you're supposed to pick the good terrain if you arrive there first. There's a story in the Samuel Griffith translation (imho by far the best), about Sun Pin, a descendant of Sun Tzu. Pursued by Pang Chüan, a rival general with a superior army and a long-standing grudge, Sun Pin arrived in a forested valley late in the day and ordered a large tree chopped down to block the road. To this, he affixed a scroll reading 'Pang Chuan dies here'. Pang Chuan arrived with his vanguard a few hours after the sun had set and found the road blocked. On being informed that there was a scroll, Pang Chüan ordered a torch lit so he could read it. Moments later his army was hit by arrows from all sides, aiming at the bright light. Realizing that Sun Pin had successfully baited him, Pang Chüan killed himself with his own sword in rage, leaving his army in disarray.

There's no use of 'death ground' here; the emphasis is on speed and a cultivated ability to recognize favorable terrain and understand how to exploit it, and to strike at the opposing force's command structure rather than engaging in a wasteful battle of attrition. I like Clausewitz, but his line about the destruction of the opposing force being the ideal outcome has been taken far too literally in many conflicts. Clausewitz's military experience was in the Napoleonic wars and while he has much wisdom to share on strategy - choosing the time, place, and general shape of battle - his view of battle itself basically a slugfest in which size of force x intensity of violence gives you the answer. This was distilled some decades later into Lanchester's laws, a set of differential equations that provide surprisingly good insight into how a conflict of attrition will go. But Clausewitz and Lanchester are (imho) not great at addressing how to get an opponent to play themselves. Sun Tzu is very much about defeating the opponent's command structure, without which the army won't function.

Sun Tzu is hard to read because of the flowery language and the epigrammatic style, vs the more popular military style of discursive and specific examples (in both Asian and western military traditions). The Art of War at first feels like a collection of super-obvious truisms and annoyingly vague aphorisms with some specific instructions here and there, causing many readers to fixate on the latter. If you read it this way you'll certainly end up like the arrogant and unfortunate Ma Su. But the book is not an argument, it is a drill. You have to go through it over and over. The boring and shallow-seeming parts are foundational and they don't give up their value straight away. The way Ive got value out of it is to read some new stuff or writings about a specific conflict or aspect of conflict, then go back and read Sun Tzu again. Read more, read Sun Tzu again. Problems tying things together? Read Liddell Hart again, then read Sun Tzu again. Instead of pulling it apart looking for hidden meanings or some better translation from classical Chinese, let it function like a framework for organizing military knowledge.

Incidentally, my (outsider) experience of a lot of essays like this is that they are only partly about their nominal subject, and really about philosophical arguments within the defense establishment to shape doctrine, procurement, and long-term strategies. There are factions of strategic thought within the military bureaucracy that are constantly maneuvering for position, such that the peacetime defense establishment could be said to be engaged in the conduct of internal warfare by other means.

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#36
post #22

Finally. I remember reading Sun Tzu and thinking "hmm all this stuff is either very specific to ancient China, or unsubstantiated". As in, everyone sounded like distilled wisdom, but it smelled. The thing that was missing I think was that normally when you read a text about something that's trying to make a general point, it cites a whole bunch of historical precedents. "Always drive deep into enemy territory, like X…

This is a modern way of thinking. Ancient wisdom never comes with citations. But I'm happy to be proved wrong.

Philosophy often goes through cycles of distillation, where authors try to extract and condense the main points of a field, and then commentaries where seasoned practicioners of the field expound on texts that have become canonical, and contibute their own experience and points of view. For example, Cao Cao (the most powerful warlord in the Three Kingdoms period) has written extensive war journals where he also commented on Sun Tzu's works.

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#37

As both a former army officer as well as someone who appreciates historical Chinese, it pains me to say that I found it underwhelming. I’m not saying that any one on here is like this, but in my experience it def attracts a certain type who, among other things, have a zero sum, “business is war” mindset that’s a tad creepy. Unlike everyone I know who has actually served .

Modern militaries don't seem to enjoy the freedom to act and maneuver that a classic general enjoyed in the field (for good reasons). Modern requirements for transparency and democracy, and the interest of the military industrial complex don't help when you try to "appear weak when you are strong" or to "disguise a plan". For a mid-level army officer these things are probably even less applicable.

I still think there is huge potential for an overarching, creative strategy, and I wouldn't be surprised if the difficulties of Soviet/US forces in Afghanistan were not an accident, but sun-tzu'd in some way.

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#38
post #4

From what little I know Sun Tzu has a lot of "good rule od thumb" wisdom but you shouldn't stick to what he says as if he is infallible. For example: > The greatest victory is that which requires no battle He says a lot of stuff like that but this is only true if your aim is peace in the near term and appearances of victory. The carnage of war, the worse it is the more it avoids even more war. If you win without batt…

The main point of that quote is that a battle is a negative-sum game. Reaching the same ultimate outcome without a battle is better than fighting for it, because both sides will suffer losses in the battle. Trying to achieve a lasting peace through a decisive victory rarely works, because people don't work like that. In a more likely outcome, you are simultaneously not aggressive enough to prevent future conflicts an…

Agreed, and to add, I never understood that the old "war texts" were supposed to be detailed workflows for war and more just stating in plain language from people who've fought wars knew for the general public to understand. I've not read the old war texts since I was forced to in High School, but my takeaway from books like Art of War and The Prince was the authors trying to shatter the concept of Romantic wars with the boring reality of everything that comes with war.

That is, I understood that the point of the books was more to get governments and people to engage with understanding the practical elements of war, like:

- Wars are very very very expensive

- They're expensive even when you're not at war

- Your troops probably don't want to be fighting cause it means they probably will get hurt or die

- No one likes being conquered, so don't assume that the war is done once you've killed enough soldiers

- It's really expensive to supply an army

- Seriously, do you know how much a horse eats? How about a thousand horses?

My takeaway from the books was first teenage disappointment that the books weren't super deep or evil like I had been led to believe, and second that the books really seemed to try to deglamorize war by talking about all the stuff involved with it besides the killing/conquering, and showing how expensive and exhausting it really is.

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#39
post #4

From what little I know Sun Tzu has a lot of "good rule od thumb" wisdom but you shouldn't stick to what he says as if he is infallible. For example: > The greatest victory is that which requires no battle He says a lot of stuff like that but this is only true if your aim is peace in the near term and appearances of victory. The carnage of war, the worse it is the more it avoids even more war. If you win without batt…

There was an argument made that this is a misunderstanding:

https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2020/6/15/sun-tzus-...

TL;DR Sun Tzu doesn't mean "Try to win without having a fight", but "Try to win without having a formal 1-on-1 engagement".

"Battle" shouldn't be understood as generic violent conflict, but a specific formal affair in which two armies gather up and clash with each other.

So for rather than reading this as "Try to solve things non-violently", this post suggests the meaning is more like "Try not to be forced into an engagement on even terms. If you can just poison them all, or starve them, that'd be much better".

Re: Notes from a Sun Tzu Skeptic (2019)

#40
post #22

Finally. I remember reading Sun Tzu and thinking "hmm all this stuff is either very specific to ancient China, or unsubstantiated". As in, everyone sounded like distilled wisdom, but it smelled. The thing that was missing I think was that normally when you read a text about something that's trying to make a general point, it cites a whole bunch of historical precedents. "Always drive deep into enemy territory, like X…

This is a modern way of thinking. Ancient wisdom never comes with citations. But I'm happy to be proved wrong.

> Ancient wisdom never comes with citations

Because writing in the past is really expensive and a heavy-duty work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bamboo_book_-_binding_-_U...

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