I wish GPT4 had never happened • Hacker News Board

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#381

Post by couchand » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:45 PM UTC

908B64B197 wrote: post #282

pixl97 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friends in the gaming industry have the complains they can't get new junior and associate members on their team for development. Instead companies want to throw more tooling at them to make the senior developers more productive. With how bad companies are at providing on the job training now, what does the future look like with 100x developers versus newbies that can't talk to AI?

The gaming industry is probably the worse place to look at. It's constantly trying to farm work abroad and looks at every possible way to cut costs. And it's dominated by young, naïve devs and artists who don't understand the market and are "passionate" about the product.

That all makes it sound like it would be a leading indicator for the industry as a whole.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#382

Post by DanTheManPR » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:45 PM UTC

I am begging you people to read Karl Marx's Capital Vol 1, Ch 15: Machinery and Modern Industry

Do you fear washing machines because they eliminated the requirement for doing the laundry by hand? If not, then why is automation in the workplace different? We fear AI and other forms of automation in the workplace because we have no ownership or control over our economic destiny in that space.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#383

Post by lpapez » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:46 PM UTC

turnsout wrote: post #103

Robotbeat wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All small businesses are not pure profit maximizers. Anyway even if they were, there’s MORE money to be made by empowering employees to use powerful tools which can increase revenues and profits much more than just firing. Doing so generates goodwill which improves employee effectiveness and drive.

This! If you can 10X an employee, the obvious play is to retain all ten employees and get 10X widget output. Yes, you could fire nine people to retain 1X output—but your competition also has access to LLMs, and may choose the former option. Can you compete?

This assumes that there is a need for 10x amount whichever service these entities are providing. For some cases that may be true, but for many (most?) it is not. In fact demand will most likely remain about the same, and all competitors will need to adpot LLMs and fire 9 people to remain afloat.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#384

Post by rootusrootus » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:46 PM UTC

School-Cotton wrote: post #310

rootusrootus wrote: post #287

I've been using ChatGPT a lot. I'm no longer feeling much anxiety over the future of software engineering. GPT is a great tool. Still just a tool. It helps remind me how to do things I do rarely. To get code that exactly fits my requirements, I'd have to get so specific that I might as well just write the silly code myself. But for shell scripts, SQL, stuff like that, it's pretty decent. Yesterday I asked it to give…

Are you using 3.5 or 4? If 3.5, your experience is irrelevant since 4 is so much better.

"March 23 version"

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#385

Post by sl8r » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:46 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

logicalmonster wrote: post #138

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs…

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure?

In the “Sad Irons” chapter of Caro’s LBJ biography, he talks about the pre-electrification lives of Texas farmers. In comparison with that, our whole day is leisure.

Similarly: As late as 1900, the poor in Europe were so severely malnourished that growth stunting was common. Look at Our World in Data’s charts of height over time. Or Robert Fogel’s “The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death.”

Etc. Etc.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#386

Post by ineedasername » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:46 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

logicalmonster wrote: post #138

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs…

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

>Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure?

That’s not the fault of automation. As a society we’ve chosen to increase our population and level of consumption instead and automation is simply the engine for it.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#387

Post by jvanderbot » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:47 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

logicalmonster wrote: post #138

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs…

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

What part of "a company can produce 10x more goods" translates necessarily to "they decide to not grow and instead let people go home at 10am."

They're going to try to grow and get rich off the increased productivity.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#388

Post by vc8f6vVV » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:47 PM UTC

danShumway wrote: post #224

netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

"Work" above is being used in a more specific form than you are using it. GP is not referring to all productive work, they are specifically referring to employment on the market. Yes, human beings are better in relationships and better when they help each other, but GP is not talking about abolishing helping other people or doing meaningful things. There are a huge number of things people can do to meaningfully make…

I your work is not producing anything valuable for other people it's void and you will get bored pretty fast, it's a human nature. If it does you can always find a way to monetize it as people need it and ready to share their wealth for something they need. No, it doesn't have to be a work "for a company", but if you can't "make money off of this" it probably means your "work" is only relevant to you, or somebody else will "make money off of this" using what you have created. It's how society works, and we are social animals.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#389

Post by hansvm » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:47 PM UTC

dkqmduems wrote: post #305

sigstoat wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? if you'd like the standard of living of a few centuries ago, you can probably fund that by programming for a couple hours a week. instead you want entertainments, medicines and foods that take correspondingly more effort to produce.

Eggs are still eggs no?

You could replace 100% of your diet with eggs by programming half an hour each week. Most other foods are cheaper per calorie.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#390

Post by Moissanite » Sat, Apr 08, 2023, 3:47 PM UTC

proamdev123 wrote: post #141

netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

I agree completely. Additionally, people who hold this belief fail to realize that “I don’t want to work.” ACTUALLY means “I want others to work so I don’t have to.” For example, how are you going to eat? You are either going to grow, cultivate, and harvest your own food (i.e. work) or you’re expecting others to do that work for you. Oh, you say it can be “automated”? Well, who’s going to design, build, and maintain…

> people who hold this belief fail to realize that “I don’t want to work.” ACTUALLY means “I want others to work so I don’t have to.”

No, it means "I am working to generate more wealth which flows predominantly to the owners of capital, who often do no work and sometimes have never done any work at all - can't we do something fairer than this?"