Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

treycausey.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 29 posts

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#11

Post by JohnFen »

labrador wrote: post #8

I'm a skeptical optimist. I'm always asking people to explain to me why they think GPT-4 has a mind, but so far I haven't recieved a satisfactory explanation. I found this on 4chan that fits how I feel, maybe too optimistic, but I'm also a pronoiac [1] Al as the emancipator of mankind Anonymous (ID: 2aPu4eoe ) 04/01/23 No.421909126 Since the dawn of our existence, humans have fought against the elements and sought to…

> With the advent of Al and super technology, we are on the brink of the next stage in human civilization

This is just as hyperbolic and unrealistic as those who think that AI is going to kill all humans because it considers us an unacceptable risk.

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#12

Post by mrob »

JohnFen wrote: post #11
labrador wrote: post #8

I'm a skeptical optimist. I'm always asking people to explain to me why they think GPT-4 has a mind, but so far I haven't recieved a satisfactory explanation. I found this on 4chan that fits how I feel, maybe too optimistic, but I'm also a pronoiac [1] Al as the emancipator of mankind Anonymous (ID: 2aPu4eoe ) 04/01/23 No.421909126 Since the dawn of our existence, humans have fought against the elements and sought to…

> With the advent of Al and super technology, we are on the brink of the next stage in human civilization This is just as hyperbolic and unrealistic as those who think that AI is going to kill all humans because it considers us an unacceptable risk.

What level of risk would a superintelligent AI consider "acceptable" when it comes to failure to accomplish its goal?

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#13

Post by labrador »

mrob wrote: post #9
labrador wrote: post #8

I'm a skeptical optimist. I'm always asking people to explain to me why they think GPT-4 has a mind, but so far I haven't recieved a satisfactory explanation. I found this on 4chan that fits how I feel, maybe too optimistic, but I'm also a pronoiac [1] Al as the emancipator of mankind Anonymous (ID: 2aPu4eoe ) 04/01/23 No.421909126 Since the dawn of our existence, humans have fought against the elements and sought to…

Why do you think having a mind is of any relevance to AI risk? The danger is in the combination of power and alien values. Whether AI has something analogous to human consciousness or not makes no difference to the outcome.

Who said anything about risk? I'm just curious about why people think it has a mind. I've heard people estimate it has a mind of a child. Naturally I ask them how they come to that conclusion. Just to be clear. I think it's a clever piece of software with no mind at all.

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#14

Post by boringuser2 »

moonchrome wrote: post #5
chr1 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure what nuclear deterrent looks like when you have AGI resources. Other people who have AGI resources. That's why it is very important to have multiple groups of people who will reach AGI at the same time. That way the same iterated prisoners dilemma thing will act on AGIs too.

I'm not sure how that doesn't devolve into an AGI armageddon. Those self improving AGIs would have to constantly be on equal level to avoid takeover, and they have an existential imperative to one up each other. There's no cooperation incentive between them just a potential stalemate. Also the stalemate covers the people in control of AGIs (assuming they aren't acting independently) - the rest of us are just resource…

It's pretty clear that at some point in the process of recursive self-improvement that you'd have literally just invented God, whereafter all predictions break down.

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#15

Post by labrador »

JohnFen wrote: post #11
labrador wrote: post #8

I'm a skeptical optimist. I'm always asking people to explain to me why they think GPT-4 has a mind, but so far I haven't recieved a satisfactory explanation. I found this on 4chan that fits how I feel, maybe too optimistic, but I'm also a pronoiac [1] Al as the emancipator of mankind Anonymous (ID: 2aPu4eoe ) 04/01/23 No.421909126 Since the dawn of our existence, humans have fought against the elements and sought to…

> With the advent of Al and super technology, we are on the brink of the next stage in human civilization This is just as hyperbolic and unrealistic as those who think that AI is going to kill all humans because it considers us an unacceptable risk.

It seems to me that with AI assisting in genetic engineering allowing us to take charge of our own evolution that might qualify as the next stage of human civilization, but perhaps I watch too much science fiction

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#16

Post by antegamisou »

moonchrome wrote: post #3

Even if AI doesn't reach a point where it could wipe us out, those rosy predictions might just be wishful thinking. Our society is built on cooperation outperforming individuals. And that whole iterated prisoner's dilemma thing keeps us in check. But if someone creates an AI that's super capable and can replace people ? Add advanced robots to the mix. Suddenly, they don't really need other people, and they could even…

Very accurate take, one should expect the worst from such advancements under capitalist economy - societal structure.

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#17

Post by m463 »

moffkalast wrote: post #2

Well there is some historical precedent for optimism I suppose, since this isn't the first time we've invented something that can easily get out of control with disastrous consequences. There have been so many close calls and cases when we could've nuked each other to oblivion and yet by some miracle we're not only still here today, but for the most part it's had a positive impact with greater levels of peace and sov…

> Well there is some historical precedent for optimism

I like the book "The Rational Optimist" by Matt Ridley

basically things have been getting better.

(personally I have my reservations about privacy, and "smart" devices)

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#18

Post by lostmsu »

labrador wrote: post #13
mrob wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think having a mind is of any relevance to AI risk? The danger is in the combination of power and alien values. Whether AI has something analogous to human consciousness or not makes no difference to the outcome.

Who said anything about risk? I'm just curious about why people think it has a mind. I've heard people estimate it has a mind of a child. Naturally I ask them how they come to that conclusion. Just to be clear. I think it's a clever piece of software with no mind at all.

I haven't really seen anyone rebuke the Turing test, and in a Turing test GPT-4 against children seems like children would have no chances.

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#19

Post by moonchrome »

antegamisou wrote: post #16
moonchrome wrote: post #3

Even if AI doesn't reach a point where it could wipe us out, those rosy predictions might just be wishful thinking. Our society is built on cooperation outperforming individuals. And that whole iterated prisoner's dilemma thing keeps us in check. But if someone creates an AI that's super capable and can replace people ? Add advanced robots to the mix. Suddenly, they don't really need other people, and they could even…

Very accurate take, one should expect the worst from such advancements under capitalist economy - societal structure.

More fundamental than capitalism I'd say, it's evolutionary.

Re: Skeptical optimists are the key to an abundant AI future

#20

Post by labrador »

lostmsu wrote: post #18
labrador wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who said anything about risk? I'm just curious about why people think it has a mind. I've heard people estimate it has a mind of a child. Naturally I ask them how they come to that conclusion. Just to be clear. I think it's a clever piece of software with no mind at all.

I haven't really seen anyone rebuke the Turing test, and in a Turing test GPT-4 against children seems like children would have no chances.

I don't get a sense that it's a person like some people do. Maybe because I've been writing software all my life. It's pretty clever, but it glitches like a machine and says things no person would ever say, but a text generator would. I'm afraid I've insulted people by saying if you tell me GPT-4 has a mind what you are really telling me is that you are not smarter than GPT-4 as in "tell me that you are not smarter than GPT-4 without telling me your not smarter than GPT-4" but maybe that's unfair because I'm a software developer. I quickly try to mitigate the insult by saying I soon expect to have an AI smarter than me, maybe GPT-5 that I won't be able to tell about.
Post reply on HN