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A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

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Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#11

Article starts out lame but then gets very good. Worth reading all the way through. In the 1980s some nerds figured out how to use hidden computers to beat roulette, by placing bets after the ball is already spinning and the computer can time its movement to predict (nowhere near perfectly, but well enough to have a statistical edge over the house) where it will land. There is a fantastic book about the adventure, ca…

I'm not expert on casinos, but placing a bet after the ball starts spinning just sounds wrong? Why would casinos ever allow that?

from the article

> There’s one surefire way casinos could stop prediction: calling “no more bets” before the ball is in motion. But they won’t. That would cut into profits by limiting the amount of play and deterring casual gamblers. Instead, the industry seems willing to pay a toll to a select few who know the secret, while trying to design out the flaws that make the game vulnerable.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#12
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not expert on casinos, but placing a bet after the ball starts spinning just sounds wrong? Why would casinos ever allow that?

To encourage more betting, in the excitement of the moment when the wheel is spinning one way, the ball is circling the other way, and the outcome is mere seconds away... Slow things down, require all bets to be placed before the croupier spins the wheel and throws the ball, and you'll have taken away some of the mystique and the adrenaline of betting on this bouncing, glittering thing that's happening right now in f…

The article confirms this:

> There’s one surefire way casinos could stop prediction: calling “no more bets” before the ball is in motion. But they won’t. That would cut into profits by limiting the amount of play and deterring casual gamblers.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#13
Similar but different story: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489022

> Though roulette was considered by many to be purely a game of chance, Jarecki was convinced that it could be “beat.”

> He noticed that at the end of each night, casinos would replace cards and dice with fresh sets — but the expensive roulette wheels went untouched and often stayed in service for decades before being replaced.

> Like any other machine, these wheels acquired wear and tear. Jarecki began to suspect that tiny defects — chips, dents, scratches, unlevel surfaces — might cause certain wheels to land on certain numbers more frequently than randomocity prescribed.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#14

>Tosa, Marjanovic and Pilisi returned to the Ritz at 10 that night, as promised. This time they were led to a private room where a squad from the London Metropolitan Police was waiting. An officer politely informed them they were under arrest on suspicion of “deception” and led them away to be interviewed at a nearby police station. Once the gamblers were out of earshot, Wootten urged the cops to check their shoes an…

Casinos are pretty pathetic. They claim to run an honest game, and if you lose, they are totally fine with keeping your money. But, if you consistently win, and it looks even slightly statistically improbable, the casino turns into a crybaby health insurance adjuster, going over the rules/law with a magnifying glass to find something, anything that lets them avoid payment. At worst, the ones run by less savory organizations resort to threats and violence.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#15
if these are the people i think they are, they practiced a ton to train themselves to be able to identify the underlying physical aspects, in effect memorizing how to do everything the computer would nominally do.

if you know wheel rpm plus an estimate of the speed the croupier throws the ball, you can get a pretty good physics sim of where the ball lands.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#16

>Tosa, Marjanovic and Pilisi returned to the Ritz at 10 that night, as promised. This time they were led to a private room where a squad from the London Metropolitan Police was waiting. An officer politely informed them they were under arrest on suspicion of “deception” and led them away to be interviewed at a nearby police station. Once the gamblers were out of earshot, Wootten urged the cops to check their shoes an…

Casinos are pretty pathetic. They claim to run an honest game, and if you lose, they are totally fine with keeping your money. But, if you consistently win, and it looks even slightly statistically improbable, the casino turns into a crybaby health insurance adjuster, going over the rules/law with a magnifying glass to find something, anything that lets them avoid payment. At worst, the ones run by less savory organi…

The pillars of society are based on the ordinary. When something extraordinary happens, it shakes those pillars and there will be a reaction whether or not it is just. And yes, casino operators are known for a level of self-restraint, basic decency and fairness roughly equivalent to pawn brokers and payday loan operators. Business is predatory when satisfying "customer demand" damages the person, you end up doing business with a bunch of damaged people, which justifies treating them harshly. It's the circle of life, where life is suffering.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#17

>Tosa, Marjanovic and Pilisi returned to the Ritz at 10 that night, as promised. This time they were led to a private room where a squad from the London Metropolitan Police was waiting. An officer politely informed them they were under arrest on suspicion of “deception” and led them away to be interviewed at a nearby police station. Once the gamblers were out of earshot, Wootten urged the cops to check their shoes an…

Casinos are pretty pathetic. They claim to run an honest game, and if you lose, they are totally fine with keeping your money. But, if you consistently win, and it looks even slightly statistically improbable, the casino turns into a crybaby health insurance adjuster, going over the rules/law with a magnifying glass to find something, anything that lets them avoid payment. At worst, the ones run by less savory organi…

I oppose efforts to legalize gambling not because I dislike gambling but I oppose the theft that we call legalized gambling.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#18

>Tosa, Marjanovic and Pilisi returned to the Ritz at 10 that night, as promised. This time they were led to a private room where a squad from the London Metropolitan Police was waiting. An officer politely informed them they were under arrest on suspicion of “deception” and led them away to be interviewed at a nearby police station. Once the gamblers were out of earshot, Wootten urged the cops to check their shoes an…

Casinos are pretty pathetic. They claim to run an honest game, and if you lose, they are totally fine with keeping your money. But, if you consistently win, and it looks even slightly statistically improbable, the casino turns into a crybaby health insurance adjuster, going over the rules/law with a magnifying glass to find something, anything that lets them avoid payment. At worst, the ones run by less savory organi…

More concerning is that the police and judges will follow on the casino's requests.

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#19

Article starts out lame but then gets very good. Worth reading all the way through. In the 1980s some nerds figured out how to use hidden computers to beat roulette, by placing bets after the ball is already spinning and the computer can time its movement to predict (nowhere near perfectly, but well enough to have a statistical edge over the house) where it will land. There is a fantastic book about the adventure, ca…

Claude Shannon[1] claims he did something similar in the early 60's, proving it worked in Vegas. He and his collaborator Ed Thorpe quit playing well before the legitimate businessmen who ran the casinos could realize they were winning too much and have a friendly chat with them about it. For more, see: https://boingboing.net/2017/07/27/wearable-computing.html [1] If the name doesn't ring a bell, he discovered that Bo…

The story was about Claude Shannon. And Ed Thorpe was the father of modern day hedge funds or something

Re: A Gambler Who Beat Roulette

#20
The "Roulette Assault" episode of the old History Channel series "Breaking Vegas" covers another way to beat roulette but without requiring computers or communications devices in the casino or timing anything. Archive.org has a copy of that episode [1].

A family went to casinos around Europe and observed the roulette wheels, keeping extensive records on where the ball landed. They were not covert about it. They'd just openly write down the results.

You might think casinos would not allow that, but actually they love people who do things like that. A person taking notes is a person who thinks they can invent a system to beat the casino, and those people often lose a lot of money before giving up.

The family took all that data and analyzed it to find wheels that had slight consistent biases that were big enough that bets based on them would come out ahead long term. They then went around making those bets and won long term.

The family members had spent so much time looking at wheels that they could recognize individual wheels by things like scratches and discolorations and other ordinary visible wear and tear, so even if a casino moved a wheel the family would recognize it and know which bets to place.

There are a couple other "Breaking Vegas" episodes I remember as standing out.

"Ultimate Cheat" [2] is about another way to win at roulette, but this one involved a team cheating on the bets using a twist on an old cheating method.

There's an old way to cheat on bets where you place small bets that consist of a stack of minimal value chips. You adjust the stack so that the croupier cannot actually see the bottom chip. You and your teammates all do this.

If one the bets wins you try to use sleight of hand to replace the stack with a stack that consists of minimal value chips except for a high value bottom chip, still arranged so the bottom chip is not visible to the croupier. Your teammates can help by trying to distract the croupier so your sleight of hand won't be spotted.

When the croupier goes to your winning bet you point out the amount is wrong and point out the high value chip in the stack that the croupier missed.

Casinos are on to that, and if they suspect at all that you are doing it before paying out they will go to the security tapes to make sure no one tried any sleight of hand on the winning stack.

The team in this episode realized they could work this the other way. Instead of trying to retroactively raise the value of winning bets they could retroactively lower the value of losing bets.

So now the first stack is a stack of low value chips with a high value chip on the bottom with the stack askew to hide the high value chip. If the bet wins no sleight of hand is needed. The high value chip is already in place. If the bet loses that's when they try sleight of hand to switch it for a stack with all low chips. That's easier than switching a winning stack because the croupier is paying attention to the winners.

If the casino goes to the tape after a win no problem. The tape will show no tampering because there was none.

The casino security people knew the team was up to something for quite a while and were scrutinizing every one of their wins and getting really annoyed and frustrated that they couldn't figure out what the heck was going on.

"Counterfeit King" [3] was about counterfeit casino tokens. Manufacturers incorporate a variety of anti-counterfeiting measures in their token designs, but Louis Colavecchio was able to match them all. The only reason anyone knew there was counterfeiting going on was casinos were finding themselves gaining token. No one, including the token manufacturers, were able to figure out which tokens were genuine and which were Colavecchio's.

[1] https://archive.org/details/breaking-vegas-s-1-e-10-roulette...

[2] https://archive.org/details/breaking-vegas-s-1-e-01-ultimate...

[3] https://archive.org/details/breaking-vegas-s-1-e-06-counterf...

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