China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech • Hacker News Board

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#381

Post by midoridensha » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:23 AM UTC

ajmurmann wrote: post #175

eu wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does Russia stand to gain by invading Ukraine?!

Several things: * Ukraine historically had been their bread basket * It's one of several hard to defend routes into Russia. Russia needs Ukraine as a buffer. * Eastern Ukraine has lots of mining and industry Russia needs that were critical to the UDSSR economy as well.

> It's one of several hard to defend routes into Russia. Russia needs Ukraine as a buffer.

No, Russia doesn't need it.

I'm sure you're correct that Russia believes this, but the reality is that no one actually wants to invade Russia, and no one has wanted to invade Russia for a very, very long time. All Russia's neighbors have only been worried about invasion and oppression from Russia, ever since the end of WWII.

Somehow, the Russian people seem to collectively have a weird paranoid victim mentality, thinking they're always under threat of invasion, when in reality everyone just hates them and wishes they'd keep to themselves. They think they're entitled to controlling other neighboring countries for their own defense, but they never give a thought to those countries' defense. Somehow, places like Poland and Sweden these days are able to not worry about being invaded by their (non-Russian) neighbors, so all the other borders within Europe are completely undefended. Maybe if Russia tried being friendly with other nations instead of constantly threatening them with military action, they could have a peaceful coexistence too.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#382

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:31 AM UTC

uejfiweun wrote: post #272

pimlottc wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's safer to say it /concurred with/ the longest era of peace and prosperity in the history of the world.

Yes. The long peace in my view was more so caused by the invention of nuclear weapons which drastically lowered the incentive for war, forward-thinking decision makers who constructed a reasonably stable alliance between great powers, and mass communications technologies allowing for greater control and integration of populations.

[deleted]

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#383

Post by birdyrooster » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:48 AM UTC

klodolph wrote: post #237

jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

I am less convinced that China is really good at playing the long game, and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles that we see in the US. It’s just so easy to tap into our fears of China that we want to believe that they’re this smart and ruthless. We look for evidence to validate our feelings. There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more depos…

The only reason it's so cheap is that they have the economies of scale from dominating the market by any means necessary. Take away their customers and all of a sudden their relative cost will go up.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#384

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:51 AM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #291

humanistbot wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> non-democratic country Just because a country is a democracy does not mean it will be a reliable trading partner. Democracies can easily swing from free market to protectionist trade policies -- and back. Outsourcing a very large fraction of all manufacturing for half the world to any single country is an incredibly risky idea.

A non democratic country has fewer checks and balances on these things than the ones that do. But you are right, that's not a guarantee at all. Just a matter of degree.

[deleted]

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#385

Post by htag » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 5:00 AM UTC

augment001 wrote: post #338

jacquesm wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just don't get the anti-China hate. Is it racism? It is 100% possible to see China as a long term economic (and possibly military but I doubt that) threat, abhor their human rights violations, love Chinese people and despise the CCP all in one go.

So true. Even the CCP wasn’t so clearly problematic until Xi.

The CCP has been clearly problematic since Mao.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#386

Post by adastra22 » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 5:04 AM UTC

analyst74 wrote: post #369

dougmwne wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand, it is an affront to their regime. It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. In a very real sense, Taiwan is not a separate country, but a unconquered territory from the Civil War, the last bastion of the pre-1949 Republic of China, and a symbol of what could have been for all of China. Sure there are geopolitical reas…

This is a very western view on things. Chinese people from mainland cares much less about democracy than citizens from western countries. The primary motivation for Chinese people to want reunification is that it's one of the last remaining symbols of colonialism.

Chinese people in Taiwan care A LOT about democracy, however. Despite the CCP's protestations to the contrary, there is nothing inherently undemocratic about Chinese culture, as Taiwan clearly demonstrates. The possibility that those ideas and that culture might spread to the mainland is a very real threat to the PRC's leadership.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#387

Post by somenameforme » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 5:07 AM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #291

humanistbot wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> non-democratic country Just because a country is a democracy does not mean it will be a reliable trading partner. Democracies can easily swing from free market to protectionist trade policies -- and back. Outsourcing a very large fraction of all manufacturing for half the world to any single country is an incredibly risky idea.

A non democratic country has fewer checks and balances on these things than the ones that do. But you are right, that's not a guarantee at all. Just a matter of degree.

In the US both tariffs and sanctions can be (and are) unilaterally imposed by the president.

Sanctions are crystal clear thanks to the IEEPA [1]. The president needs only declare an emergency, which is typically done in the exact same executive order imposing the sanctions. We're currently under at least 42 different national "emergencies", of which 34 are to impose sanctions. [2] The legal basis for tariffs is less clear, but in effect no different. Trump's tariffs [3] were all passed unilaterally, appealing to all sorts of acts that grant the president conditional tariff powers, but where the condition is framed in a broad enough way to include nearly any rationale.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Emergency_Econom...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_emergencies_i...

[3] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_tariffs

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

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Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 5:18 AM UTC

teh_klev wrote: post #368

Retric wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by we you mean the US then we don’t. The US has effectively zero direct dependence on middle eastern oil due to domestic production and transportation costs. Canada is much closer and has a lot of oil. Where it matters is they can impact the global prices and thus what people pay at the pump. Though the actual profits from such spikes in American gas prices end up going to suppliers in America or Canada.

> The US has effectively zero direct dependence on middle eastern oil due to domestic production and transportation costs For now and whilst those extraction costs are cheaper domestically. The US needs the Saudis as a backstop and for infill of the types of crude oils the North American continent doesn't have access to or is in limited supply. They're also a handy client state to do the US's dirty work in the Middle…

The USA needs the Saudis to supply Europe and Asia, otherwise demand goes up and pumps up prices in the states. But as we and our allies move to EVs, we really won’t need as much oil anymore, so the end of the dependence is near.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#389

Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 5:24 AM UTC

weq wrote: post #366

Herval_freire wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more deposits, it’s just that they’re untapped until we deplete our cheaper sources. If China withholds its minerals, we will use more expensive sources, but we will still get the minerals. Same thing if you with-hold semiconductors. Somebody for sure is willing to sell general purpose chips to China second hand at a more expensive price. >I…

> Somebody for sure is willing to sell general purpose chips to China second hand at a more expensive price. The US is stopping people from selling high tech chips to China. Have you not heard of this policy? I tenat to agree that Xi Jing Ping is distracted with retaining power like all the other democractic polticians are. Instead of left vs rights, its ultra left-ist faction against faction, corruption and profitee…

Xi Jinping. The extra g caught me off guard.

China is a fairly conservative country, so calling them ultra leftist also feels wrong, since any actual leftists would get kicked out of government very quickly. It’s more like the reformer wing (was headed by ex-premiere Li Keqiang) and the more traditionalist wing that Xi represents.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#390

Post by adastra22 » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 5:24 AM UTC

unaindz wrote: post #201

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why is the CCP so intent on controlling the land of another country? The way you frame the question already suggests that you're not interested in why China (not just the CCP - this is a broad sentiment inside China) sees things the way it does. Taiwan is not seen as "another country" in China. It's seen as a Chinese province that is temporarily separated from China due to the civil war. This was also the view of s…

> So if both China and Taiwan wanted and want to be united why don't they? I was gonna ask that but researched a little bit of history first. So the CCP won the civil war against the government at the time, the PRC, which retreated to Taiwan. What I didn't get is that both governments consider China to include the Taiwan territory, they just don't agree on which is the legitimate government. Please correct me if I'm…

> What I didn't get is that both governments consider China to include the Taiwan territory, they just don't agree on which is the legitimate government. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

(I live and grew up in the US, but my family is Taiwanese.)

That description is a generation or two out of date. It is still technically the official position, but only because China continuously threatens total war if Taiwan ever backs down from that position. Since the end of the civil war there was never, ever any plausible way in which the nationalist forces in Taiwan could have retaken the lost mainland territory. After Mao's debacles, I don't think they even wanted to. It was only General Chiang Kai-shek's stubbornness that kept the policy in place until his death in 1975. By then the idea would have been laughable.

You may have heard about "Taiwanese independence" being an issue in the news every now and then over the last few decades. Taiwan is an independent country and always has been; its territory has never, ever been controlled by the PRC. What "Taiwanese independence" is about is the idea of a national referendum (which would involve changing the Taiwan constitution) to renounce all claims to the mainland, rename the country to be just Taiwan instead of the Republic of China, and drop the whole "One China" schtick.

In polling, the overwhelming majority of Taiwanese are "for independence" in the literal sense of being against reunification. Reunification might have once been a considered option, but the fate of Hong Kong showed what would result from going down that path. Other than a small percentage of the population who are nutjob far-right Chinese nationalist extremists (every country has its wackos), nobody wants reunification anymore.

So no political movement in Taiwan expects to reclaim the mainland. No political movement in Taiwan expects to peaceably unify with the mainland either (not since 2014 at least). The current ruling party, the DDP, keeps pledging to have a referendum on independence, but never follows through because China says it's a red line for war. The opposition party, the KMT, doesn't want reconquest or reunification anymore, but advocates for maintaining the status quo for merely pragmatic reasons.