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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#101

Post by lenkite »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

They have always considered Taiwan part of China. The US even agreed and signed a treaty regarding that.

The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.

Since then, the US devolved first to strategic ambiguity and then recently to supporting Taiwanese Independence in the Biden Era. The Chinese are not going to take it lying down. Nationalism matters a lot to Chinese - if you think this is simply a Xi endeavour, you are sadly, sadly mistaken. Even if Xi died today, the vast majority of the high command will decide to carry forth.

Unfortunately, War is generally a snowballing, self-fulfilling prophecy. Since the U.S. has now gained access to four new Philippine bases, China will be forced to respond as well. The game of escalation will continue until the final pin drops.

Personally, I really don't think super-powers should be stubborn. There should be new negotiations and there should b e a revised Shanghai Communique. China is unlikely to accept an fully independent island so close to their border though and will want some control over Taiwanese governance. Its too much of a threat to them otherwise.

If you think the position un-reasonable, turn the situation around and judge the way the U.S. treats Cuba - strong-armed and watched over by the Guantanamo Bay military base and sanctioned to death and you might get an idea of what China's starting negotiation position will likely to be.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#102

Post by anonymouskimmer »

b112 wrote: post #67
anonymouskimmer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. They don't know how to run them, maintain them, use them. If they did, they'd have built their own. Only people help them here. And yet, they still don't have them. If China invaded tomorrow, just the power loss alone would render those fabs into useless tech, taking months to clean and repair. And they'd still gain nothing, for…

They could temporarily deny access to these nodes to other states.

> Only people help them here.

How many Hong Kongers aligned with the party after the preemptive takeover of the Hong Kong government? How many people simply cared more about making a living than fighting for their old political and legal system?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#103

Post by CamperBob2 »

zsz wrote: post #69
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

The Pacific, for one, meaning control of shipping lanes—and with these, economic/political leverage over Japan (which, as internal PLA documents for senior staff have already revealed, they intend to put to full use). Right now, China is boxed in from all sides by mostly U.S. allied countries, so breaking the "First Island Chain" encirclement is in reality a much bigger deal than the semiconductor industry, especiall…

Who do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly?

They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#104

Post by vkou »

verdverm wrote: post #51
drekk wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US imprisons more of its own citizens per capita and in absolute terms than an "authoritarian" nation-state 4x its population. Remind us the last time China invaded a country as "liberators"? Seeing Americans of all people sit on a high horse is unreal. Like every yank forgot about "shock and awe" or "make their economy scream" It would be great to see westerners measure their own societies by the same yardstick.…

In the US, the people can force change through protests and elections. What options do the Uyghurs or Chinese people have?

Do you want a real answer to this, or one that self-congratulates us, by playing to our biases and cultural myths, and generally poor understanding of how societies work?

The same options that any people have. Soft power. Every government, be it formally representative or not, multi-party or dual-party, or single-party is ultimately only able to govern with the consent of the governed. There are always levers for people to push, and they do, and sometimes government responds and sometimes it does not, and this happens in every country.

China has in most ways a worse system for responding to these demands than a system of fair elections, but it does have a system. Its leaders steer public opinion, but have to, in turn, also be steered by it - because their mandate doesn't come from a 4-year election (where they can do whatever the hell they want in the intervening years), it comes from a fear that unpopular dictators end up swinging from lamp posts (while unpopular elected representatives end up, at worst, in retirement).

And even a system of fair elections will not protect a repressed minority that everyone wants to crap on. African or native Americans can protest and vote[1] all they want, but if the political zeitgeist sees them as a second-class minority, elections and getting tear-gassed and shot in the face with rubber-coated bullets isn't something that's going to bring about meaningful change. Meaningful change will only happen when they convince the people who hold political capital that they need to be treated like human beings. That doesn't happen at the polls, that happens through culture. There's a reason why the American right has declared a war against 'wokeness', and 'crt', and is trying to convince anyone that will listen that it is actually the underdog, the victim of unparalleled historic repression. It's not afraid of losing the culture war at the polls[2], it's afraid of losing the culture war in people's minds. The loss at the polls comes after.

[1] Well, at least, in states that don't actively try to suppress and disenfranchise them.

[2] Well, it is, hence gerrymandering, voter suppression, and all the rest.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#105

Post by antibasilisk »

delfinom wrote: post #96
xiphias2 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. It's a 100 year long trend that started with the 1933 gold ban in US, later Bretton Woods, decreasing US global bond portfolio recently, and the Russian central bank asset freezing. Personally I think that defaulting on Russia was a bigger deal than the Yuan bon…

Bitcoin, utterly worthless the moment rockets start flying and knocking out internet infrastructure

Bitcoin doesn't rely on the internet, it's a nice to have.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#106

Post by ddoolin »

dmix wrote: post #95
insane_dreamer wrote: post #80

China long-term strategizes while the US often twiddles its thumbs and belatedly responds (it's waking up with the export controls on chip manufacturing tech, but it should have done that a decade ago).

Why should the US instigate trade wars so hard? Why not be pro-free trade as possible (even if it's imbalanced) while investing heavily in their own self-reliance. That sounds more win-win to me than throwing gasoline on the fire when there's little practical self-realiance replacements in the near term without bigger consequences than the alternative. It's a dangerous game to play without substantial and subsequent…

IMO it's because shifting towards self-reliance usually means shifting investment away from international investment and implementing protectionist regulations which are seen as economically hostile towards other states. So perhaps just the act of shifting towards domestic investment and protection will be taken as instigation.

I agree with you, though, and I think the "icing on the cake" instigations are in large part political maneuvers.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#107

Post by mullingitover »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

One thing I learned recently was that when the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan, they took a vast trove of priceless Chinese antiquities with them. This has long been a sore spot for China, which makes the desire to annex Taiwan not simply a dollars and cents tactical goal but also a matter of national pride.

It's like if we had a right-wing revolution in the US, and the current national government fled to Nova Scotia with the contents of the Smithsonian, the National Archives, and every important museum and library.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#109

Post by vkou »

antibasilisk wrote: post #105
delfinom wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin, utterly worthless the moment rockets start flying and knocking out internet infrastructure

Bitcoin doesn't rely on the internet, it's a nice to have.

In a world without internet, your paper wallet will be worth ~as much as my D&D character's inventory sheet. And probably less, because at least the character sheet is big enough that I can make a paper airplane out of it.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#110

Post by gs17 »

vkou wrote: post #25
moose_man wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, the US move was tit-for-tat for a decade of militarizing the South China Sea, threatening war against Taiwan, undermining the US economy through stealing trade secrets and sponsoring national champions.

Only the US, after all, is allowed to militarize the South China sea.

The Chinese simply call it the South Sea, but linguistic games don't change who in the region actively threatens to invade who.
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